Beidh Trump fós ina uachtarán?

[redbreegull]

hey squish squash

nate-silver-galen-druke-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democrats-2028/

[Squish Squash]

Originally Posted by redbreegull

hey squish squash

nate-silver-galen-druke-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democrats-2028/

I'm pretty cynical that there will be elections in 2028 but I would vote for AOC in any state, even as an anarchist. I will tell you this is not necessarily a common opinion for anarchists either (I'm honestly much more willing to vote than many anarchists I've encountered believe it or not), but I think it would be pretty dumb to not vote for her if you want legitimate progress and end of suffering to happen and she's good enough policy wise that even in a safe state I wouldn't feel ashamed of my vote, although I certainly have my issues with her.

In retrospect, I would have voted Harris in a swing state (I was in NY don't worry) and assuming there are elections in 2028 and I move to a swing state I will likely vote Democrat even if they run someone shit like Harris. But I'll probably try to stay in a blue state if I move. It would be wise for the Democrats to run AOC imo, but who knows if anyone can beat Trump if it's just rigged by Musk et al. I'm not entirely convinced he beat Harris legitimately. Him winning the electoral college didn't SHOCK me, but the popular vote? I know Harris isn't popular but still...

I certainly hope the Democrats at least know enough not to run Gavin Newsome who has been palling around with a literal fascist in Steve Bannon.

[topleybird]

Good ol' Nate Silver with his big-brain takes. I mean, sure, she could run. And immediately get steamrolled by megadonor and Dem party leadership favorite Jimbo Bipartisan, a down-home Georgian running on classic Democrat platform planks like "stomping queers" and "taxing the lazy poor"

[Disco King]

Money's a big factor, but at the end of the day, that money has to translate into votes in order to be any good. And sometimes it doesn't (like when Musk tried to buy the Court in Wisconsin, or when candidates who have fundraised more still lost).

And even if the lefty candidate doesn't win the primaries… if they're popular enough, it usually results in the actual nominee getting dragged left in order to win against them. Like how Sanders influenced the Clinton and Biden platforms and had way more of an effect on policy than he ever would if he ran as an independent or Green. Instead of weakening a party, slugfest primaries usually actually toughen it. So, they should fight, fight, fight. Don't pull any punches in the name of "solidarity" or "unity" or "not fracturing the party."

[Disco King]

Come actual election time, I would advocate "vote blue no matter who" in order to prevent the worst outcomes, but between election cycles, that's the real time to hold their feet to the fire and try to move the needle on issues. Gloves off.

[Disco King]

Originally Posted by Squish Squash

I'm pretty cynical that there will be elections in 2028 but I would vote for AOC in any state, even as an anarchist. I will tell you this is not necessarily a common opinion for anarchists either (I'm honestly much more willing to vote than many anarchists I've encountered believe it or not), but I think it would be pretty dumb to not vote for her if you want legitimate progress and end of suffering to happen and she's good enough policy wise that even in a safe state I wouldn't feel ashamed of my vote, although I certainly have my issues with her.

Even when I was an anarchist, I thought it was always pretty dumb to not vote for the lesser of two evils. Even Noam Chomsky agrees with that. There are people in concentration camps right now who would not be in them if Harris won. Also, Palestinians are in a worse situation than before because of Trump, because he wants to ethnically cleanse them so he can build a golf course on their corpses. It's just weird to me that people can understand the concept of harm reduction when it comes to heroin and crack, but then start acting like abstinence-only conservatives when it comes to voting.

It's especially lamer to me when American anarchists haven't had the balls to try for shit since, like, McKinley. Like, if an anarchist actually stands on business and goes Czolgosz-mode? I may not agree with that person (because I think social liberal/social democrat/whatever democracies with a mix of markets and sensible regulations and rule of law are pretty cool, actually), but I'll tell you one thing: you won't catch me preaching to that person about the ballot box. Like, at least that person put their money (err—labour vouchers) where their mouth is and tried for the armed revolution they're always wanking about.

Like, when MAGAts stormed the capitol five years ago, I couldn't help but think "weren't the commies and anarchists supposed to be doing this? Isn't this their wet dream? How'd they let a bunch of low-IQ morons who didn't even have a political identity until the previous election cycle beat them to the punch?" But instead of actually doing anything radical, most radicals would rather post on Reddit about how morally superior they are to the "sheeple" who haven't unplugged from the Matrix to see that liberals and fascists are exactly the same, actually. They'd rather make guillotine memes on Reddit and smugly scoff at any effort to try to reform things for the better than get off their asses and do something. They're like "lmao, you think your votes and marches in the park will do anything?" And when you ask them where their revolution is, they're like "look, I'm really busy right now, I'm in the middle of a move."

Originally Posted by Squish Squash

In retrospect, I would have voted Harris in a swing state (I was in NY don't worry) and assuming there are elections in 2028 and I move to a swing state I will likely vote Democrat even if they run someone shit like Harris. But I'll probably try to stay in a blue state if I move. It would be wise for the Democrats to run AOC imo, but who knows if anyone can beat Trump if it's just rigged by Musk et al. I'm not entirely convinced he beat Harris legitimately. Him winning the electoral college didn't SHOCK me, but the popular vote? I know Harris isn't popular but still...

If by "didn't beat Harris legitimately," you mean "the Trump admin used Starlink to hack the voting machines"… don't just be a mirror image of a MAGA truther. No, it would be almost impossible to commit voter fraud on that scale in the United States. And, the vote count looked very similar to exit polling.

If instead you mean "got a bit of an edge from voter-suppression tactics, like gerrymandering, strict voter ID laws that disenfranchise the poor, strict rules that throw out ballots for the smallest discrepancies, like somebody having a middle initial in one government record but not in another, making the cost of voting higher by closing polling stations so voters have to travel further and wait in line longer," yeah, that shit happened and will only get worse now. If the Republicans have it their way, some jurisdictions will only let you vote if you have a passport, a birth certificate with your current name on it… shit that many poor people, trans folks, and married women don't have. Because they don't vote Republican. Well, if they really had it their way, husbands would get to vote in place of their wives and children, but I think that will just remain their wet dream for now.

2028 is going to look different from 2024 because the administration is more brazen and untouchable now. The only real hope Americans have is that the Trump administration will be too stupid and disorganized to effectively cement their control before the midterms. The only reason Trump is getting away with everything is that the Republican Congress is rubber-stamping everything he does instead of asserting their role as a separate branch of government. The executive is not supposed to control the power of the purse and remove funding Congress already allocated, but Congress is letting him do it. As soon as it turns blue, he can't really be a dictator anymore, so the question is whether they implement the voter suppression before then.

Musk is on his way out, though. The Trump admin is already getting sick of him, and Republicans are no longer scared of him now that the Wisconsin race showed him to be radioactive. He's so unpopular right now that his money probably loses a candidate votes. His threat was "do what I say, or we will primary you and I will put my money against you." That threat has a lot less teeth, now. Trump will want nothing to do with Musk as soon as his special-government-employee stint is up.

[Disco King]

Oh, I forgot to mention… even in the good ending where the Republicans lose, the whatever Dem is in power (even if its a special pure-of-heart one and not an "establishment corporate etc. etc.) will be dealing with a decimated and dysfunctional federal government and won't be able to do 10% of what their supporters want them to do. You're not getting massive healthcare reform when the office that processes taxes can't even answer the phone anymore. Your previous election was kind of a referendum on whether or not you want a functioning society for the next 30 years, and you all blew it. The rest of us in the global north who benefited from sitting at the same lunch table as obnoxious bully jock is now just wondering how much it's going to cost us now that he crashed his car drunk driving and being "friends with Chad" no longer keeps us from getting hassled when walking home from school.

[redbreegull]

cant argue with any of that

[Squish Squash]

I mean, call me a conspiracy theorist if you want, but...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...372297854.html


I'm also not saying it's definitive I'm just saying I'm suspicious because Trump is deeply unpopular and he won the popular vote. Electoral wins are not surprising to me for Trump tho. I get that it's pointless to quibble about this now, but you asked me what I meant. Trump has already done a lot of things we didn't think were possible in America ("it can't happen here!"), so I try not to underestimate the things they are capable of. I was pretty confident Harris would win personally, as were many of my peers, perhaps your circle felt differently though.

[Squish Squash]

Originally Posted by Disco King

Come actual election time, I would advocate "vote blue no matter who" in order to prevent the worst outcomes, but between election cycles, that's the real time to hold their feet to the fire and try to move the needle on issues. Gloves off.

This isn't possible without a mass movement that is organized. A lot of the "leftists" I know would rather talk about old dead guys than organize shit. And I mean I can't talk I'm mostly hiding in my room because of my mental issues. Maybe I will try to go to a march with my parents, see if I can meet likeminded individuals but I'm very, very VERY bad socially irl.

[redbreegull]

lol you'd blend right in at a leftist march then

[MyOneAndOnly]

Originally Posted by Squish Squash

This isn't possible without a mass movement that is organized. A lot of the "leftists" I know would rather talk about old dead guys than organize shit. And I mean I can't talk I'm mostly hiding in my room because of my mental issues. Maybe I will try to go to a march with my parents, see if I can meet likeminded individuals but I'm very, very VERY bad socially irl.

if you go don't take your phone. Carry a burner or none at all

[Squish Squash]

Originally Posted by redbreegull

lol you'd blend right in at a leftist march then

D'Arcy isn't dead. Or did you mean most leftists have mental issues?

[Squish Squash]

Originally Posted by MyOneAndOnly

if you go don't take your phone. Carry a burner or none at all

I am aware of this, but thank you yes. And wear black clothes, masking etc.

[Disco King]

Originally Posted by Squish Squash

I mean, call me a conspiracy theorist if you want, but...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...372297854.html


I'm also not saying it's definitive I'm just saying I'm suspicious because Trump is deeply unpopular and he won the popular vote. Electoral wins are not surprising to me for Trump tho. I get that it's pointless to quibble about this now, but you asked me what I meant. Trump has already done a lot of things we didn't think were possible in America ("it can't happen here!"), so I try not to underestimate the things they are capable of. I was pretty confident Harris would win personally, as were many of my peers, perhaps your circle felt differently though.

Imagine being a truther for a candidate you didn't even vote for, lol. "Kamala won… not that I care, though."

The polling showed that Trump and Harris were in dead heat. It was 50/50 odds. And Trump was leading most of the time, with Harris only really leading when she started her campaign and during the convention bump. Nothing was statistically odd about the outcome compared to the projections. I get that if you don't look at polling data and just "feel the energy" of whatever Facebook group you're in or look at the lawn signs on your street corner, you can get the gut feely that this candidate or that candidate is leading. But that's not meaningful data.

[Squish Squash]

I still wanted Harris to win mate, there was just no reason for me to vote for her in a blue state. I don't really feel like getting into an argument over this, though, think I'm crazy if you want, you would hardly be the first person and you're probably not wrong.

[redbreegull]

Originally Posted by Squish Squash

D'Arcy isn't dead. Or did you mean most leftists have mental issues?

second one

conservatives are the most fucking insane but they have no concept of mental illness so it's different

[Squish Squash]

Originally Posted by redbreegull

second one

conservatives are the most fucking insane but they have no concept of mental illness so it's different

A really high percentage of conservative people I have encountered strike me as sociopathic, yeah. Musk and Trump seem likely to be both narcissists and sociopaths.

[Disco King]

Originally Posted by redbreegull

second one

conservatives are the most fucking insane but they have no concept of mental illness so it's different

Except when they decide that some people are feeble-minded undesirables living lives unworthy of life and decide to make a national registry of them using their confidential health records.

[smashingjj]

anyway, will Trump be pope as well as president?

[Disco King]

I actually want to put out a survey asking Americans if Trump should be appointed head of the Church in addition to being head of the state (I'll keep which church vague in order to avoid anti-Catholic sentiment being reflected in the results), because I'm sure at least 20% would say "yeah, that'd be great."

[Disco King]

You know, during the last Trump administration, even though I thought he was completely awful, I did think that because so much of day-to-day life does not depend on federal policies, certain white liberals who were acting like it was the end-times were perhaps a bit overly emotionally invested and needed to go out for a walk. I was like, "yeah, you have a right for Trump stuff to be your whole world if you are in the groups of people whose life trajectories depend on federal policies, like if policies about food stamps make the difference between whether you live or die, but if you're some white guy with a master's degree in Boston, maybe the fact that Trump is severely affecting your mental health when your life looks identical to how it looked when Obama was president says more about you. It's okay to care about the other folks, to talk about it, but c'mon, stop saying shit like "Trump is making it hard for me personally to get out of bed," you just seem like a performative pansy.

I think this time… things are different. Trump 2.0 is not just a repeat of the first term. It seems a lot more justified to have less mental space to think about non-Trump things now.

And I think that's the thing that pisses me off. I know he's a narcissist, and that what he wants is to be on everyone's mind. I don't want to give him that satisfaction. But he makes it impossible not to, because you can't really ignoring a guy setting a forest on fire.

In day-to-day life, you can deflate a narcissist by just ignoring and grey-rocking them. Going "that's nice," not engaging, not arguing, walking away. But the world has pretty much enabled the ultimate narcissist to make that strategy impossible against him. It feels like the planet is in an abusive relationship with one asshole. Because some a few thousand fuckwits in Pennsylvania don't mind getting slapped around and say things like "but he cares about me and didn't mean it!"

Like, okay, Trump has emboldened Israel to just decide to take over Gaza. Just take it over. Something worse than what people thought the worst realistic Israeli action might be. And, like, I'm supposed to just go "hmm, interesting. Well, anyway" as if the world isn't falling apart.

[Disco King]

I thought extreme times were supposed to radicalize me, but if anything, they've just pushed me further and further into normie politics because it now seems even more like the post-war rules-based global order, even with its warts, inequality, and atrocities, was pretty based, actually. Like, we were slowly but surely reforming the warts through cooperation, reducing global poverty, eliminating diseases, empowering women… it seemed like the shit that still existed (exploitation, U.S. unilateral shittery, hoarding of wealth) was at least tractable if people cared enough to keep pushing for progress.

I think at first, because I want to believe that even people on the opposite side of the aisle from me are generally good and rational, but just often misled, I wanted to believe the narrative that "the Trump voters were just poor folks left behind my globalization who voted for what they thought was change because nobody was listening to them." You know, right values, heart in the correct space, but with poor or different information. I wanted to believe that the problem was with the wider order that was just insensitive to these people.

Now I think… nah, some people are just dumb. It wasn't mostly the downtrodden that voted for him that first time. The "progressive sympathy" narrative never fit. It was clueless white suburban people whose lives were essentially better than ever, getting cheap goods from countries with less advanced economies while they got to live in a country with better opportunities available. People with two cars and kids in soccer practice, going "but muh rust belt" as if they weren't better off for not having to work on an assembly line like their forbearers. Some of them thought that a black family moving next door to them meant that white people would be in breadlines soon. Most of them didn't even think that. Or anything with propositional content at all. It was just vague background vibes in the polling station before they returned to thinking about Marvel movies, getting their car back from the shop, and that report their boss wanted done. I know I am sounding like some cringey teenager going "the hoi polloi is barely sentient," but fuck, I think cringey teenagers were always on to something. I don't care how *tips fedora* that makes me sound. Trump didn't arise because the world was crumbling, but because "things were going mostly okay, backsliding or stalling too much in certain metrics, but not hopelessly so, and the people who weren't even feeling the brunt of that got bored and wanted something epic to happen."

But even though I am moderating on actual policies, I think I am getting more radicalized on some other stuff. Like, I would never do it myself, I would never personally be party to it, but I would think nothing of value would be lost if a few people in Washington were Luigi'd. For the greater good. Not for some communist revolution, but for things to return to a normie liberal order, with some more aggressively progressive bulwarks against letting this shit happen again.

[Toast]

[Toast]

Originally Posted by redbreegull

second one

conservatives are the most fucking insane but they have no concept of mental illness so it's different

Imagine thinking this is actually true.

[Squish Squash]

Originally Posted by Toast

Imagine thinking this is actually true.

He's right.

[redbreegull]

Originally Posted by Toast

Imagine thinking this is actually true.

y'all shit and pissed inside the capitol to subvert an election

[Elphenor]

Originally Posted by Disco King

You know, during the last Trump administration, even though I thought he was completely awful, I did think that because so much of day-to-day life does not depend on federal policies, certain white liberals who were acting like it was the end-times were perhaps a bit overly emotionally invested and needed to go out for a walk. I was like, "yeah, you have a right for Trump stuff to be your whole world if you are in the groups of people whose life trajectories depend on federal policies, like if policies about food stamps make the difference between whether you live or die, but if you're some white guy with a master's degree in Boston, maybe the fact that Trump is severely affecting your mental health when your life looks identical to how it looked when Obama was president says more about you. It's okay to care about the other folks, to talk about it, but c'mon, stop saying shit like "Trump is making it hard for me personally to get out of bed," you just seem like a performative pansy.

I think this time… things are different. Trump 2.0 is not just a repeat of the first term. It seems a lot more justified to have less mental space to think about non-Trump things now.

And I think that's the thing that pisses me off. I know he's a narcissist, and that what he wants is to be on everyone's mind. I don't want to give him that satisfaction. But he makes it impossible not to, because you can't really ignoring a guy setting a forest on fire.

In day-to-day life, you can deflate a narcissist by just ignoring and grey-rocking them. Going "that's nice," not engaging, not arguing, walking away. But the world has pretty much enabled the ultimate narcissist to make that strategy impossible against him. It feels like the planet is in an abusive relationship with one asshole. Because some a few thousand fuckwits in Pennsylvania don't mind getting slapped around and say things like "but he cares about me and didn't mean it!"

Like, okay, Trump has emboldened Israel to just decide to take over Gaza. Just take it over. Something worse than what people thought the worst realistic Israeli action might be. And, like, I'm supposed to just go "hmm, interesting. Well, anyway" as if the world isn't falling apart.

For myself and those around me I'm noticing the opposite

I don't watch the news, I don't think about politics, legitimately I forget he's president sometimes

Im checked out, we are Russia-lite

[Disco King]

I guess it's different for me, being in Ukraine-lite.

You know what all the shelves there said right before the Ruskies marched in? "Купуйте українське."

[ovary]

as bad as things get here in the US i guess we can all take solace that at least we aren't living in canada