ye olde politics thread

[myosis]

Originally Posted by redbreegull

you are a hopeless moderate who has repeatedly shown a near 100% blindness to race and sex issues

since you repeatedly conflate people's point of view into a narrative that suits your bias, this kind of blatant affirmation doesn't even surprise me from you.

[myosis]

and that's why i hate your fucking guts

[smashingjj]

oh, young love

[yo soy el mejor]

Originally Posted by LaBelle

Bernie just needed something to happen to show all americans how vital universal healthcare is.
Too bad nothing came up.

that looks a lot like this quote from the internet: Feel sorry for Bernie Sanders. Was hoping that something would happen to show Americans why they need universal healthcare, unfortunate that nothing came up.

crazy!

[yo soy el mejor]

Originally Posted by myosis

and that's why i hate your fucking guts

dang. never seen you so upset

[Elphenor]

Originally Posted by myosis

since you repeatedly conflate people's point of view into a narrative that suits your bias, this kind of blatant affirmation doesn't even surprise me from you.

this was the old Trots strategy and very common here

[yo soy el mejor]

l'il historian over here lol

[Elphenor]

back in my day

[Squish Squash]

Originally Posted by topleybird

Not surprising, since even most of his supporters feel the same way





Then again I'm an idiot and am probably interpreting these poll results all wrong

eLeCtaBiLiTy.

[Squish Squash]

It’s funny for RBG to attack another poster as a “hopeless moderate” when he’s been screaming at all of us Bernie supporters to vote Biden or else.

[MplsTaper]

[LaBelle]

Originally Posted by myosis

since you repeatedly conflate people's point of view into a narrative that suits your bias

Tbf, that's something almost every single person is guilty of.

[myosis]

yes that was quite generic, i admit.

for a long time i have been witnessing a pattern with this guy in particular, where he oftentimes self-fuels his own anger.

[redbreegull]

Originally Posted by topleybird

Also, were you watching the polling data this closely in 2016? Do you feel the majority of the polls were showing that Trump's electability was surging, or would you agree that one reason we got in this mess is that all the polls were showing Clinton as a shoe-in to the point where a lot of Democrats didn't bother voting?

Well polls this far out aren't super meaningful necessarily. But in 2016, as election day approached the polls reflected that Trump had a definite shot. Like I pointed out, if you shut out the pundit and op-ed noise, Trump was pretty clearly sitting on a 1/4 chance of winning electorally despite his disadvantage in the popular vote. Nate Silver called this, as did a few other pollsters who were committed to the data and not lost in the sauce. After the election, Nate Silver even wrote about how the talking heads and media personalities twisted and misinterpreted data to spew things like "clinton has a 99% chance of winning" and total bullshit like that. So no.... I don't think the polls convinced Dems they didn't have to vote, but I think the media and the general public's data illiteracy did.

again, the Dems were shocked they lost in 2004 but the indicators were all there. In 2012, Republicans could not believe incredibly unpopular and evil and destructive president obama won re-election when romney looked so strong to them. But the indicators were in the numbers. It's not polls that mislead people like this, it's the echo chamber and psychological biases.

[redbreegull]

Originally Posted by topleybird

Then again I'm an idiot and am probably interpreting these poll results all wrong

you aren't, but you are also assuming that enthusiasm towards the candidate is going to make a difference in November, which is kind of unknown. the Republicans are more enthusiastic about Trump than Democrats were about any of the candidates. but it's also hard to measure when the GOP is already united behind one person and the Democratic race just ended yesterday.

Originally Posted by Nate Silver

I don’t think enthusiasm is a terribly meaningful indicator above and beyond what is already reflected in polls.

Sanders’s voters were more enthusiastic than Biden’s in the primaries. But he’s actually tended to underperform his polls. Sometimes higher enthusiasm means you have a narrower base, and the other candidate has more room to turn out undecideds, etc.

An important qualification to all of this is that most of the polls so far are conducted among registered voters when really we want to see likely voter polls, which won’t really be reliable for another several months......

.....I think if anything people tend to overlearn the lessons of the most recent election. A lot of the templates that people applied from the 2016 primaries to the 2020 primaries led to completely wrong predictions, like vastly understating Biden’s chances.

The fact that Democrats are worried about an enthusiasm gap because of 2016 could easily help Biden because it will scare Democrats into voting.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...asm-for-biden/

They also point out in this analysis that the number of Sanders voters who say they will vote for Trump or stay home is actually on par with the number of voters who do that in any election when their candidate doesn't win. Sanders doesn't have an especially rebellious base in that sense. Their likelihood to stay home or protest vote is about normal.

[redbreegull]

Originally Posted by Squish Squash

It’s funny for RBG to attack another poster as a “hopeless moderate” when he’s been screaming at all of us Bernie supporters to vote Biden or else.

I'm not a moderate in any sense. I just want to win. I understand that it's either going to be Biden or Trump, and that's going to define the federal judiciary and the Supreme Court for the next several decades. you can play out this fantasy of getting a real socialist in 4 more years but there's no actual reason to believe that will happen just because trump wins again. it's just a hunch on your part. what will happen, for certain, is that the GOP takeover will continue and the courts will not stop it. your imaginary 4 years in the future socialist will have great luck against a far right judiciary and SCOTUS, I'm sure, as Republicans give themselves permission to further fix the game in their favor through state election gerrymandering and voter restrictions. You want an inspiring candidate, I don't care. I want policy achievements because that's what matters.

[redbreegull]

Originally Posted by myosis

yes that was quite generic, i admit.

for a long time i have been witnessing a pattern with this guy in particular, where he oftentimes self-fuels his own anger.

I'm not conflating you with anyone. I am specifically pointing out "a pattern with this guy in particular"

[myosis]

i'm not saying you are conflating me with anyone, you are making baseless assumptions about me, with this near 100% blindness.

[redbreegull]

ok

[smashingjj]

I'm legally blind.

Still drive a car, though.

[FoolofaTook]

This guy. Always with the jokes!

[redbreegull]

I shouldn't get so worked up by the Bernie hardliners for sure. The truth is when the election comes around the majority of Bernie primary voters are going to vote for Biden. Biden's biggest danger at this point seems to be how Clinton lost– and the biggest factor in that was moderates and independents in suburban districts in PA, WI, and MI who stayed home because they hated both Clinton and Trump. This is evidenced by the 2018 election, where we saw turnout surge for the Dems, but specifically in a lot of those places Clinton lost. The Dems flipped seats in some areas that went for Trump, and some of those areas are places Romney lost in 2012. That shows the votes are there, but people didn't come out because they wouldn't vote for Clinton.

A substantial number of people in Michigan who voted Sanders because they disliked Clinton went ahead and voted for Biden over Sanders in 2020. I think that is reason to believe Clinton's unpopularity inflated Sanders' numbers in 2016 but at least a good number of those voters are still more comfortable with a moderate, and it was particularly Clinton who they would not vote for.

[redbreegull]

The Atlantic – What Does Nate Silver Know? The famous data journalist thinks the media are making the same mistakes this year as they did in 2016.

this is a really insightful look into the accuracy of 2016 polls and forecasts, why Silver was right by the end of the election when other journalists were so wrong, and how the public has reacted in a way that shows most people don't really grasp how statistical journalism works

[yo soy el mejor]

Originally Posted by redbreegull

I shouldn't get so worked up

[Squish Squash]

Breeg, you are absolutely burying your head in the sand about Bernie voters apparently “overwhelmingly supporting Biden”. Stop it. Pay attention. Read what we are saying online. WE. ARE. NOT. VOTING. FOR. BIDEN.

Why do you think the #demexit is a thing???

[Joey Goldberg]

Originally Posted by Squish Squash

Breeg, you are absolutely burying your head in the sand about Bernie voters apparently “overwhelmingly supporting Biden”. Stop it. Pay attention. Read what we are saying online. WE. ARE. NOT. VOTING. FOR. BIDEN.

Most likely true. Does not matter. More a symptom of a sick, mad world

[FoolofaTook]

Most likely true. Does not matter. More a symptom of a sick, mad world

[FoolofaTook]

whoops

[Squish Squash]

Been hearing a lot of rumbling about people wanting Andrew Cuomo to take over for Biden. But he’s so electable right? Why would anyone need to take over for him? Jesus Christ the idea of settling for Joe Biden is INSULTING.

[run2pee]

Originally Posted by Squish Squash

RBG, if you think the Democrats/Democratic voters are united you are really not paying attention. I am in two Bernie Sanders meme groups on FB. One has over 390 thousand members. The other has over 27 thousand. The OVERWHELMING sentiment in these groups is that we will not vote for Biden. Many similar sentiments are expressed on the Bernie Sanders subreddit I am subscribed to. I have heard people express their disgust for Biden IN person when I volunteered at Bernie’s office in St. Louis. Almost all of my friends were for Bernie. My close friends do not want Biden. Other people I went to college and high school with on my timeline are overwhelmingly for Bernie. They do NOT like Biden and many of them are not going to vote for him. HE WILL NOT BEAT TRUMP. Why do you think people keep saying #demexit? You are burying your head in the sand if you think the left wing is anything close to united.


FUCK BIDEN

Yeah i mean this nails it for the left-leaning/democrat ppl i interact with, as well

In fact i’d go so far as to say many of us are more united in our acute anger at biden for being so horrible, yet taking the nomination, than we are united by our ever-present ambient anger at trump for being president. Resigned to 4 more years of trump and yes “fuck biden” is the overwhelming sentiment im hearing

With my folky folkster ear hole story of an old wife tale or saga i must admit