Official New Hampshire Primary Thread - Page 2

BeautifulLoser · 01-27-2004, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sppunk

Umm ... you're wrong. I saw two yestarday and one this morning.

What channels are you watching?

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sppunk

Umm ... you're wrong. I saw two yestarday and one this morning.

I already deleted the daily clip report, otherwise I'd post all the articles talking about his pulling ads and where he is quoted as saying that his campaign spending is down because of his dismal finish in IA and, thus, a slow-down in fundraising.

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BeautifulLoser
Damn Edwards just slipped into 4th by 100.

It's still too close to call.

BeautifulLoser · 01-27-2004, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BlueStar

It's still too close to call.

Indeed. The gap is widening... but it's still only 66% reporting.

miss world · 01-27-2004, 10:41 PM

i'm not saying he's doing horrible, but you seem way, way too confident in edwards. not everything you say is completely plausible.

i guess thats what you get when you work on someone's campaign, though.

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by miss world
i'm not saying he's doing horrible, but you seem way, way too confident in edwards. not everything you say is completely plausible.

i guess thats what you get when you work on someone's campaign, though.

Edwards is doing far from horrible (especially when considering what he was initially polling back when and where he is now). And I have never said that Edwards will definitely win the nomination. But, yes, IA was a huge win for him...yes, NH is no big deal to him...and, yes, SC is a very very likely win for him.

sawdust restaurants · 01-27-2004, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BeautifulLoser
Indeed. The gap is widening... but it's still only 66% reporting.

It's ridiculous that they're this close. Clark looks like he's pulling away more and more with every precinct that comes in; he's up by 650 now, but still, a margin of 1,000 when 200,000 or so are going to cast votes is really surprising.

I disagree that Kerry is going to be weak in Feb. 3 states, though. His ground organization is next to nil, yes, but we all know how much Dean's ground organization helped out in Iowa. The free press K's going to get this week is going to be just as important as Dean and Edwards and Clark's on-ground support. Lieberman's gone after Feb. 3, and I doubt Clark will hang on past 2/10 (and only until then because that date has two Southern primaries). So the argument about there being a lot of candidates is kind of disingenuous; unless something weird happens, Clark and Lieberman are gone and you've got a three-dog race.

sppunk · 01-27-2004, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BlueStar

Edwards is doing far from horrible (especially when considering what he was initially polling back when and where he is now). And I have never said that Edwards will definitely win the nomination. But, yes, IA was a huge win for him...yes, NH is no big deal to him...and, yes, SC is a very very likely win for him.

But, Edwards wins S.C. ... Kerry and Dean split the others. S.C. isn't the end of the election.

sawdust restaurants · 01-27-2004, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sppunk
S.C. isn't the end of the election.

But it IS the most important Feb. 3 state because it's the candidates' first breaching of the South. If Edwards comes out of there really strongly, he's going to do really well in the rest of the South, and then ... who knows?

Irrelevant · 01-27-2004, 10:53 PM

corrected

Quote:

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants
unless something weird happens, Clark and Lieberman are gone and you've got a three dog night.

One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do
Two can be as bad as one
It's the loneliest number since the number one

No is the saddest experience you'll ever know
Yes, it's the saddest experience you'll ever know

'Cause one is the loneliest number that you'll ever do
One is the loneliest number, whoa-oh, worse than two

It's just no good anymore since you went away
Now I spend my time just making rhymes of yesterday

One is the loneliest number
One is the loneliest number
One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do

One is the loneliest
One is the loneliest
One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do

It's just no good anymore since you went away

(number)
One is the loneliest (number)
One is the loneliest (number)
One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do

(number)
One is the loneliest (number)
One is the loneliest (number)
One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do

(number)
One...! (one is the loneliest number that you'll ever do)
(number)
One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do
(number)
One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sppunk

But, Edwards wins S.C. ... Kerry and Dean split the others. S.C. isn't the end of the election.

Ummm...I never said it was. But, SC is the must-win state for Edwards. He will be massacred by the media if he doesn't win SC...and Edwards is the candidate with the best shot at winning it. And the media has built up SC to the same height as IA and NH...the media's eyes will be on SC (and a lot on MO now that Gephardt is gone).

sawdust restaurants · 01-27-2004, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Irrelevant
corrected

Just an old-fashioned love song/Comin' down in three-part harmony

sppunk · 01-27-2004, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

But it IS the most important Feb. 3 state because it's the candidates' first breaching of the South. If Edwards comes out of there really strongly, he's going to do really well in the rest of the South, and then ... who knows?

The South is so varied though. Not one of these candidates will win all the south. Kerry could easily win Florida because of the Vets, Dean can likely win N.M. because his alliance with the governor. But, yeah, Super Tuesday is going to rock!

sawdust restaurants · 01-27-2004, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sppunk
The South is so varied though. Not one of these candidates will win all the south. Kerry could easily win Florida because of the Vets, Dean can likely win N.M. because his alliance with the governor. But, yeah, Super Tuesday is going to rock!

Oh, of course not, but winning SC is not only vital for Edwards, it'll give him major support all across the South. He's going to do a hell of a lot better there than two New England liberals. And this is coming from a Kerry supporter.

Florida and New Mexico, by the way, aren't even really Southern states

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sppunk

But, Edwards wins S.C. ... Kerry and Dean split the others. S.C. isn't the end of the election.

Arizona Primary- Dean or Edwards (Clark and Kerry will be strong as well)
Delaware Primary- Kerry or Dean (most likely, Kerry will sweep this one)
Missouri Primary- Edwards or Kerry
New Mexico Caucuses- Edwards or Dean (and it is a caucus, don't forget that Edwards is pretty much everyone's 2nd choice, which is very key when it comes to caucuses)
North Dakota Caucuses- Edwards or Kerry (Dean could make a good showing here)
Oklahoma Primary- Edwards or Clark
South Carolina Primary- Edwards (Edwards is polling with a double digit lead, Kerry is polling in 2nd)

It will most likely come down to a notherner v. a southerner...Kerry v. Edwards or Dean v. Edwards (and I would put Kerry as the favorite to be the northerner). Unless, of course, Edwards winds up losing big on Feb. 3rd...but as long as he wins SC, he most likely won't be out until after Super Tuesday.

sawdust restaurants · 01-27-2004, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BlueStar
It will most likely come down to a notherner v. a southerner...Kerry v. Edwards or Dean v. Edwards (and I would put Kerry as the favorite to be the northerner). Unless, of course, Edwards winds up losing big on Feb. 3rd...but as long as he wins SC, he most likely won't be out until after Super Tuesday.

Yes. I think you're being a tad too optimistic in your 2/3 predictions, but this general perception is dead on.

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

Oh, of course not, but winning SC is not only vital for Edwards, it'll give him major support all across the South.

Exactly. Edwards just needs to win 1st somewhere and he will gain a lot of credibility and will show that he has what it takes to be electable (and the same pretty much goes for Dean and Clark). Winning the 1st southern state will make Edwards very strong in all the other southern states.

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

Yes. I think you're being a tad too optimistic in your 2/3 predictions, but this general perception is dead on.

I'm not saying Edwards will win 1st in any of those...but, where it is Edwards or _____, Edwards is a major player and he most likely will finish at least 2nd. SC and OK are Edwards' best bets (with NM close behind those). And MO will be neck-and-neck between Kerry and Edwards.

sawdust restaurants · 01-27-2004, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BlueStar
I'm not saying Edwards will win 1st in any of those...but, where it is Edwards or _____, Edwards is a major player and he most likely will finish at least 2nd.

Well (and this, I'm sure, will come as a huge shock), I think you're shortchanging Kerry.

Oh well. We'll see. I'm probably going to be covering South Carolina for two or three days, which is fucking amazing and exciting and I'm getting all tingly just thinking about it.

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

Well (and this, I'm sure, will come as a huge shock), I think you're shortchanging Kerry.

Possibly. Kerry will be riding a huge wave of momentum. But, the in-roads already made in those states by Edwards, Dean, and Clark do amount to something and will knock Kerry down a little. I won't be shocked if Kerry picks up a few states I didn't think he would, but I don't think it'll be by any sort of a large margin.

sawdust restaurants · 01-27-2004, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BlueStar
Possibly. Kerry will be riding a huge wave of momentum. But, the in-roads already made in those states by Edwards, Dean, and Clark do amount to something and will knock Kerry down a little. I won't be shocked if Kerry picks up a few states I didn't think he would, but I don't think it'll be by any sort of a large margin.

I think this is fair -- he'll pick up a few states people didn't really think he was going to, but he will by no means emerge as a surefire No. 1. Dean will pick a few up, Edwards will take at least SC and run No. 2 in a lot of states, Clark might pick up one (but I hope not).

Ultimately, I think Kerry has this, but next week is going to be so important. It's almost more exciting than IA/NH because now we have a better idea of the implications of candidates' winning or losing different states, and while we won't have an idea of the nominee, it's probably going to knock at least one, maybe two, people out of serious contention and either solidly cement JK as the front-runner or throw the whole fucking thing wide open again.

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

Ultimately, I think Kerry has this, but next week is going to be so important.

Eh, it is still to soon to say anything. Do I need to cite the Clinton in '92 example again?

BlueStar · 01-27-2004, 11:33 PM

3rd in NH is still too close to call.

sawdust restaurants · 01-27-2004, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BlueStar
Eh, it is still to soon to say anything. Do I need to cite the Clinton in '92 example again?

Oh, I know it is. I've cited the Clinton in '92 example numerous times myself. All I was saying, or meant to say, is that Kerry's the front-runner now and is probably most likely to win the nomination--something Carville just agreed with me about on CNN. Dean has a good chance, too, Edwards has a decent chance (and much better than he has had), and Clark has an outside shot depending on how he does next week.

BlueStar · 01-28-2004, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

Oh, I know it is. I've cited the Clinton in '92 example numerous times myself. All I was saying, or meant to say, is that Kerry's the front-runner now and is probably most likely to win the nomination--something Carville just agreed with me about on CNN. Dean has a good chance, too, Edwards has a decent chance (and much better than he has had), and Clark has an outside shot depending on how he does next week.

I was the one, months and months ago when Kerry was the frontrunner the first-time around, saying that Kerry would get the nomination. Kerry is in great shape to get the nomination (and while I completely prefer Edwards and think Edwards has a better shot at beating Bush, I would be prefectly happy with Kerry as the nominee), but I am not willing to concede the nomination to him just yet. Feb. 3rd is going to be a major deciding factor. Those who haven't won a state after Feb. 3rd will pretty much be forced to drop out. I don't think Clark has a chance at all (he needed a strong showing tonight in order to be a truly serious factor for Feb. 3rd...he might put in a couple of goos showings, but I highly doubt he'll win anything). Edwards has a good shot because he has beat expectations in both IA and NH and he has become the media darling. And Edwards' favorability ratings are the highest of all the candidates and he still remains everyone's #1 2nd choice. (So as candidates drop out, watch for those supporters to come over to Edwards.)

01-28-2004, 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by BeautifulLoser

I haven't seen any Dean ads... :erm

Me neither. Chris just made that up.

If Dean doesn't win at least two primaries next week he's done.

If Edwards fails to win South Carolina - and fails to win any other primary next week - he's done.

Right?

BeautifulLoser · 01-28-2004, 12:05 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by The Ace of Aces

Me neither. Chris just made that up.

If Dean doesn't win at least two primaries next week he's done.

If Edwards fails to win South Carolina - and fails to win any other primary next week - he's done.

Right?

I agree with that. I'd like to say that Edwards will win, but I don't see it.

BeautifulLoser · 01-28-2004, 12:06 AM

BTW, Lieberman calling tonight a "3 way split for 3rd place" was just stupid.

BlueStar · 01-28-2004, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by The Ace of Aces

If Edwards fails to win South Carolina - and fails to win any other primary next week - he's done.

Right?

Feb. 3rd is Edwards' best shot at picking up several wins. He has to win SC and preferably one other state (most likely OK) and put in a really good/close 2nd in most of the other states. And Edwards knew this from the beginning, which is why he put so little time and money into NH...he's spent a lot of time in SC, OK, and NM and has had ads on air in all the Feb. 3rd states for a long time. (Sharpton is going to hurt Edwards in SC.)

Dean will probably stick around until his money is all used up, even if he hasn't won a single state.

BlueStar · 01-28-2004, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by BeautifulLoser
BTW, Lieberman calling tonight a "3 way split for 3rd place" was just stupid.

Yeah. And now he is on tv talking about how he plans to stick around and go on to Feb. 3rd.

01-27-2004, 10:41 PM	#35
miss world Minion of Satan Posts: 8,742	i'm not saying he's doing horrible, but you seem way, way too confident in edwards. not everything you say is completely plausible. i guess thats what you get when you work on someone's campaign, though.

01-27-2004, 11:33 PM	#53
BlueStar Newly independent Location: Some state's capitol building Posts: 7,242	3rd in NH is still too close to call.

01-28-2004, 12:06 AM	#58
BeautifulLoser Socialphobic Location: Middle of somewhere Posts: 13,755	BTW, Lieberman calling tonight a "3 way split for 3rd place" was just stupid.