Iowa Update Thread Here

[sppunk]

BC-IA-Dem-Pres-Sum,100
01-19-04 20:59,,
By The Associated Press
The latest, unofficial returns in the Democratic caucuses in Iowa on Monday. The winner is marked by an ‘x’.
645 of 1,993 precincts reporting - 32 percent
Wesley Clark, 3 - 0 percent
Howard Dean, 531 - 18 percent
John Edwards, 990 - 33 percent
Richard Gephardt, 324 - 11 percent
John Kerry, 1,113 - 37 percent
Dennis Kucinich, 24 - 1 percent
Joe Lieberman, 0 - 0 percent
Carol Moseley Braun, 0 - 0 percent
Al Sharpton, 0 - 0 percent
Uncommitted, 0 - 0 percent


BC-Iowa Caucus Rdp, 9th Ld-Writethru,1254
Iowa’s caucuses open 2004 voting
Eds: UPDATES with new material
AP Photos MSGX103
AP Graphic ELN IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS
By RON FOURNIER
AP Political Writer
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — John Kerry seized the lead as Iowa Democrats began their first-in-the-nation voting Mon-day, according to preliminary results of an Associated Press survey of Iowa Democrats, the initial step in the battle to face President Bush this fall.
The survey showed John Edwards and Howard Dean battling for second, with Dick Gephardt, the winner of the 1988 cau-cuses, falling short of the victory he needs. Just weeks ago, before the Iowa race turned testy and tumultuous, Dean was the undisputed front-runner — and anything less than a victory for him would reshape the crowded field.
“We in Iowa are marking the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency,” Kerry, a Massachusetts’ junior senator told supporters in Ames, Iowa, his voice hoarse and halting. “That’s what this is all about.”
The survey, done for The Associated Press and the networks, was a measure of initial preference only. The final results could differ because party rules force caucus-goers to choose another candidate if their first choice doesn’t meet a 15 percent threshold.
With pre-caucus polls showing the race a dead heat, Dean, Edwards, Gephardt and Kerry fought for the state’s 45 dele-gates — out of 2,162 needed to claim the nomination — and for momentum heading into New Hampshire’s primary eight days later.
Caucuses were starting late in schools, libraries, living rooms and other 1,993 precincts due to the volume of people at-tending. Democrats ran out of registration forms at Precinct 21 in Iowa City; at least 100 people were still lined up on the sidewalk outside the Horace Mann school.
Dianne Dillon-Ridgely, a veteran caucus-goer, said, “this is bigger than anything I’ve ever seen. We’re not going to have enough room in here.”
Dean entered the year a clear front-runner but lost his lead in Iowa and saw it shrink in New Hampshire after a rough two weeks. Stung by criticism of his record on race relations, Medicare and trade, Dean said a week ago he was tired of being the party’s “pin cushion,” and suddenly looked weak to voters drawn to his blustery image.
Gephardt gambled a few days later with an ad highly critical of Dean. The front-runner’s approval rating dropped. Voters who started second-guessing Dean drifted to Edwards or Kerry. Suddenly, it was a four-way race.
Iowa’s contest was certain to reshape the race for New Hampshire, where retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and Connecti-cut Sen. Joe Lieberman awaited the rest of the field for the Jan. 27 primary. As the contest tightened in Iowa in recent days, Democrats began expressing fears that two or more candidates could lock into a longer-than-expected nomination fight that would benefit Bush.
The caucuses, a three-decades-old staple of American politics, inspired speeches and strategy to the end.
The entrance poll showed that a third of voters said they picked their candidate in the last week, a trend that Democrats said likely favored the surging Kerry and Edwards. Half were first-time voters, but Dean didn’t dominate that category as ex-pected; Kerry and Edwards also had their share.
Health and the economy were their top issues. One in four said their top priority was a candidate who could beat Bush.
About three-fourths disapproved of the war in Iraq; Kerry and Dean fared well among the half who strongly disapproved.
Hours before the neighborhood meetings began in 99 counties, officials said Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio had agreed to ask supporters to swing behind Edwards in cases where they lacked the numbers to qualify for delegates. Though small in numbers, Kucinich’s supporters could make a difference in a tight race.
The agreement was a blow to Gephardt, who had hoped to win Kucinich supporters. The Kerry campaign appeared non-plussed by the deal.
“If we aren’t viable, we will reach out to all campaigns because this is not about cutting deals, this is about beating George Bush,” said Kerry campaign spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter.
Political ads seemed to squeeze out entertainment shows on TV. Four pricey get-out-the-vote operations sent thousands of volunteers and professional organizers to knock on doors, mail fliers, poll voters and train precinct captains in the art of cau-cus politics.
At 6 p.m. CST, in schools, living rooms and other caucus sites, tens of thousands of Iowans were coming out of the cold and splitting into groups — Edwards voters here, Gephardt people there, Kerry folks in the back and Dean backers along the wall. Kucinich was expected to get a significant showing at a few caucuses.
Their numbers were to be counted, then recounted after the campaigns competed neighbor-by-neighbor for voters who re-mained undecided or became free agents because their candidates didn’t get enough votes to go forward.
—————————————————————————
In their caucuses, local Democrats elect county convention delegates, reflecting their presidential preferences, then discuss platform issues and elect precinct leaders. The process favors candidates with broad organizations that reach into each of the state’s 99 counties.
Gephardt had hundreds of professional union organizers working the streets while Dean had thousands of volunteers, many of them political novices drawn to his campaign through the Internet and traveling to Iowa at their own expense, fed from vending machines and housed in remote cabins.
Although Dean used blunt language and you-have-the-power rhetoric to fire up an anti-war, antiestablishment base, many of his youthful organizers in Iowa looked more for adventure than a fight.
Gephardt was upbeat and calm on the campaign trail, but his blue-collar foot soldiers were motivated by fear and anger in an unsteady economy.
Kerry and Edwards had solid organizations, but nothing to match Dean or Gephardt. Their strategy was to have momen-tum override the disadvantage.
After Iowa and New Hampshire, Democrats turn their attention to an unprecedented rush of primaries starting Feb. 3 with South Carolina, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, Missouri, Delaware and North Dakota. Democratic leaders designed the front-loaded calendar in hopes of having a presumptive nominee by mid-March.
Most candidates see Iowa as a tempting jumping-off point.
Jimmy Carter was a little-known Georgia governor when his 1976 Iowa campaign catapulted him onto the national scene and put the caucuses on the political map.
Since then, Iowa has been an important but often unreliable barometer of presidential mettle.
For every eventual nominee who has won Iowa — Republican Bob Dole in 1996 and Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984 — the state has yielded many more surprises.
Ronald Reagan lost in 1980, and his foe, George H.W. Bush, declared he had “Big Mo” heading into New Hampshire. Bush’s momentum dissipated in a high-stakes debate there, and Reagan went on to win the nomination.
Al Gore, heading for a last-place finish in Iowa in 1988, left the state to campaign elsewhere, dismissing the caucus as “a real arcane procedure that produces crazy results.” Twelve years later, Gore returned as vice president to beat rival Bill Brad-ley and go on to the nomination.

[mpp]

with 32% reporting,

37% kerry
33% edwards
18% dean



wow, this is so huge for edwards and kerry and certainly a killer for dean

he's on larry king right now and boy is he devastated

[sppunk]

Originally posted by mpp
with 32% reporting,

37% kerry
33% edwards
18% dean



wow, this is so huge for edwards and kerry and certainly a killer for dean

he's on larry king right now and boy is he devastated

I wouldn't say killer. Those numbers will really, really move down and Dean's will move up. The thing, though, is Dean never said he would win Iowa before the buzz said he would. It's not his state. N.H. is his area, and every other state aside from likely South Carolina.

Anyway, this is big for Kerry and Gephardt, who is basically dead.

[mpp]

Originally posted by sppunk


I wouldn't say killer.

I would. The media will be all over him. Kerry and Clark will surge in New Hampshire. Edwards will take South Carolina. New Mexico will be up for grabs now, whereas before it was all Dean. He's done.

Originally posted by sppunk

Those numbers will really, really move down and Dean's will move up.

51% reporting: same numbers for all 3

Originally posted by sppunk

Anyway, this is big for Kerry and Gephardt, who is basically dead.

Agreed. But it's bigger for Edwards who came out of absolute nowhere to get 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in a race he was polling at 5% in 3 weeks ago.

[sppunk]

BC-Iowa Caucus Rdp, 10th Ld-Writethru,1178
Iowa’s caucuses open 2004 voting
Eds: UPDATE percentages. Material below dash should stand
AP Photos MSGX103
AP Graphic ELN IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS
By RON FOURNIER
AP Political Writer
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — John Kerry seized the lead as Iowa Democrats began their first-in-the-nation voting Monday, the initial step in the battle to face President Bush this fall. In another surprise, John Edwards was nipping at his heels.
“On to New Hampshire,” said former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who, in third place, said it looked like Kerry would win.
Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, winner of the 1988 caucuses, was falling short of the victory he needs to stay politically viable.
“We in Iowa are marking the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency,” Kerry, Massachusetts’ junior senator told supporters in Ames, Iowa, his voice hoarse and halting. “That’s what this is all about.”
Just weeks ago, before the Iowa race turned testy and tumultuous, Dean was the undisputed front-runner — and anything less than a victory for him would reshape the crowded field.
A survey of caucus-goers, done for The Associated Press and the networks to measure initial preferences, showed Kerry got an especially strong boost from voters who said the “right experience” was the most important candidate quality — a theme the four-term senator pounded home in the race’s final days.
More than half told pollsters they decided to support him on Monday night, a sign his last-minute surge may have overtaken the vaunted political organizations of Dean and Gephardt.
The entrance poll showed Kerry reaping the benefits of Gephardt’s poorer-than-expected showing. Of the people who came to the caucuses backing the Missouri lawmaker — about 16 percent of the total — 24 percent named Kerry as their second choice and 24 percent named Edwards.
Dean, a poloraizing figure prone to misteps and controversy in the race’s final days, was the second choice of just 5 percent.
“We were pretty much the target of everybody for some time,” Dean told CNN.
With 51 percent of the precincts reporting, Kerry led with 37.4 percent of the vote, followed by Edwards at 32.6 percent. Dean had just 18 percent, Gephardt 10.9 percent and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 0.9 percent.
With pre-caucus polls showing the race a dead heat, Dean, Edwards, Gephardt and Kerry fought for the state’s 45 delegates — out of 2,162 needed to claim the nomination — and for momentum heading into New Hampshire’s primary eight days later.
Dean, after two weeks of political combat that took a toll, had hoped to re-establish his credentials as front-runner even as polls in Iowa showed a four-way statistical tie. Gephardt, winner of the 1988 caucuses, would be unlikely to continue his campaign if defeated here.
Expectations were lower for Edwards and Kerry, thus a solid showing would give them momentum for the New Hampshire primary and the seven-state follow-up Feb. 3. Victory would send them surging.
“I think we’re going to win,” Dean said hours before voting began, before hedging his bets: “No matter what happens, we’re going to have more to do.”
Caucuses started late in schools, libraries, living rooms and other 1,993 precincts due to the volume of people attending. Democrats ran out of registration forms at Precinct 21 in Iowa City; at least 100 people were still lined up on the sidewalk outside the Horace Mann school.
Dianne Dillon-Ridgely, a veteran caucus-goer, said, “this is bigger than anything I’ve ever seen. We’re not going to have enough room in here.”
Dean entered the year a clear front-runner but lost his lead in Iowa and saw it shrink in New Hampshire after a rough two weeks. Stung by criticism of his record on race relations, Medicare and trade, Dean said a week ago he was tired of being the party’s “pin cushion,” and suddenly looked weak to voters drawn to his blustery image.
Gephardt gambled a few days later with an ad highly critical of Dean. The front-runner’s approval rating dropped. Voters who started second-guessing Dean drifted to Edwards or Kerry. Suddenly, it was a four-way race.
Kerry was ahead because he did well among older voters, men, independents and moderates, while he was competitive among other groups like liberals, who made up six in 10 voters, and those who were strongly disapproved of the war with Iraq.
That was a blow to Dean, whose rose from rank obscurity to front-runner on the strength of his anti-war views.

[sppunk]

Originally posted by mpp


I would. The media will be all over him. Kerry and Clark will surge in New Hampshire. Edwards will take South Carolina. New Mexico will be up for grabs now, whereas before it was all Dean. He's done.



51% reporting: same numbers for all 3




Agreed. But it's bigger for Edwards who came out of absolute nowhere to get 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in a race he was polling at 5% in 3 weeks ago.

Edwards hasn't coming out of nowhere - Kerry has. To Say Dean will not finish first or second in NH is absurd - he's still pulling 65 percent popularity there even as Clark has lived there. Edwards will go on to S. Carolina and win, with Dean in second.

However, no one has any appeal in the West aside from Dean, who has ran ads and has teams already in place. Iowa wasn't as important to Dean as the other two, and he said that many times.

[Nimrod's Son]

I do wonder which one of them is going to lose to Bush in the general election.

[sppunk]

Originally posted by Nimrod's Son
I do wonder which one of them is going to lose to Bush in the general election.

Dukakis had 46 percent of the vote in '88 - and he was the worst candidate ever against a dominating Republican powerhouse that was in power. I wouldn't write off the victory yet.

[beef curtains]

Originally posted by Nimrod's Son
I do wonder which one of them is going to lose to Bush in the general election.

political views aside, i think whichever dem candidate gets the nomination will win.
political views aside, why do you think bush will carry it?

[Netphorian Gadabout]

Originally posted by So very sad about me

political views aside, why do you think bush will carry it?

Nimrod is a warmongering racist bastard who's all for letting children starve. Or, to put it simpler "Nimrod is a Republican."

[sawdust restaurants]

Edwards/Kerry/Clark can beat the president. It's not likely, but there are scenarios in which any of them can.

I'm really thrilled right now. My 1-2 in preference finished 1-2. Now if they can just hold off Clark and Dean in NH and SC ...

[beef curtains]

Originally posted by Pumpkins23836
Nimrod is a warmongering racist bastard who's all for letting children starve. Or, to put it simpler "Nimrod is a Republican."

NO WAY DUDE. YOU CAN"T READ.

I said political views aside. I just don't see how bush is going to win it.

[sawdust restaurants]

Originally posted by sppunk
To Say Dean will not finish first or second in NH is absurd - he's still pulling 65 percent popularity there even as Clark has lived there.

Chris, man, have you been following this at all? Dean's numbers in NH have taken a huge hit in the last week. He can and possibly will finish first, but it's not at all a foregone conclusion, and he's going to need to scramble to pick up the support he's lost.

[Netphorian Gadabout]

Originally posted by So very sad about me


NO WAY DUDE. YOU CAN"T READ.

I said political views aside. I just don't see how bush is going to win it.

I don't understand how to explain that Nimrod is totally out of touch with reality and impervious to the fact that more people dislike Bush then like him without bringing out the point that Nimrod, as a Republican, is inherently under the belief that racism, letting children starve, and greed are good things that everyone likes.

[sawdust restaurants]

Originally posted by So very sad about me
I just don't see how bush is going to win it.

People love him on foreign policy, and Americans trust the Republican Party more on matters of security than the Democrats. The social issues involved in this campaign (abortion, gay rights) are going to make it really difficult for any Democrat to win the South, which just about everybody thinks a Democrat needs to do. Where a Democrat is going to get the president is on the economy or if some other hot-button issue crops up. Bush is going to be very hard to beat.

[Mayfuck]

Bush is going to win because we have the stupidest voters in the world. There's your fucking reason, guys.

[sppunk]

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants


Chris, man, have you been following this at all? Dean's numbers in NH have taken a huge hit in the last week. He can and possibly will finish first, but it's not at all a foregone conclusion, and he's going to need to scramble to pick up the support he's lost.

Dean's numbers everywhere have taken a hit in the last week ... constant attacks will do that to anyone. The focus will shift to Kerry and Dean's 60,000 volunteers planted in NH can continue undermining Clark and pull NH. Then he'll pick up the support, head to SC and try to pull second and then go from there.

Again, Kerry is the huge winner, Gephardt is the huge loser. Edwards is thrilled at his outcome and I really think Dean's not too freaked out. He led Iowa, but so did Kerry six months ago. Iowa to him isn't as big as some of the western states. This will be going on for months and months - which will be good for us because Bush won't be able to attack the challenger for a prolonged period of time.

Edit: The nomination, again, is a free-for-all. That's where it was yestarday. Iowa, like it should be, is back to seclusion and no one will pay attention to it for a long time.

[Netphorian Gadabout]

I think anyone who acts like this isn't a major loss for Dean is just plain wrong. A week ago he was thought of as the de facto winner; today, he lost with HALF the votes as the next guy. I could see it if he lost 37% to 35%, but not 37% to 17%.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally posted by So very sad about me


political views aside, i think whichever dem candidate gets the nomination will win.
political views aside, why do you think bush will carry it?

I'm not even sure who I am voting for yet (although the chances of my vote being cast for a Dem is next to none) but I honestly can't see anyone knocking Bush off at this point. There's a lot of stuff going on in the world, and I don't think average voter is going to want change right now. Also a lot of thr primary polls are misleading when they "match up" candidates. The same thing happened to Clinton before Dole got the nomination - many GOP candidates got better responses. I don't think Kerry, Edwards or Dean can beat Bush, and those 3 to me have the best shot out of this group. Wesley Clark and the rest would get pounded.

The domestic issue that the Democrat will attack Bush on is the economy. All other social issues Bush has the advantage because his view is also the majority view.

Edwards and Kerry will have a hard time attacking Bush on foreign policy (Iraq) without looking like hypocrites.

[sppunk]

Originally posted by Pumpkins23836
I think anyone who acts like this isn't a major loss for Dean is just plain wrong. A week ago he was thought of as the de facto winner; today, he lost with HALF the votes as the next guy. I could see it if he lost 37% to 35%, but not 37% to 17%.

But three months ago he was in third .. where he finished.

Remember, Clinton had 4 percent of the Iowa poll.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally posted by Pumpkins23836
Nimrod is a warmongering racist bastard who's all for letting children starve. Or, to put it simpler "Nimrod is a Republican."

Just because I think Bush is going to win it doesn't make me a Republican. Just because I think the Lakers will win the western conference doesn't make me a Lakers fan.

[sawdust restaurants]

Originally posted by sppunk
This will be going on for months and months

I'll bet you $100 that this thing is over after Super Tuesday.

And anyway, you're ignoring the most obvious fact to come out of all this. There's a REASON Dean's support has been dropping, and that reason is not the constant attacks from anybody, as much as you and all the paranoid Dean campaigners would like to blame these things on the media. Rather, the numbers have been dropping because the game is up. Dean's not electable. He shoots himself in the foot on a regular basis. Those aren't trends that are going to stop anytime soon.

In fact, I'll bet you another $100 that Clark, Kerry, or Edwards comes away with this, in that order of probability.

Also, they just said Gephardt is likely about to drop of the race, and he's not headed to New Hampshire. His supporters aren't going to flock to Dean; they're going to the three aforementioned candidates, especially the first and third.

[Nimrod's Son]

I still think Kerry is going to get the nomination.

[sppunk]

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants


I'll bet you $100 that this thing is over after Super Tuesday.

And anyway, you're ignoring the most obvious fact to come out of all this. There's a REASON Dean's support has been dropping, and that reason is not the constant attacks from anybody, as much as you and all the paranoid Dean campaigners would like to blame these things on the media. Rather, the numbers have been dropping because the game is up. Dean's not electable. He shoots himself in the foot on a regular basis. Those aren't trends that are going to stop anytime soon.

In fact, I'll bet you another $100 that Clark, Kerry, or Edwards comes away with this, in that order of probability.

Also, they just said Gephardt is likely about to drop of the race, and he's not headed to New Hampshire. His supporters aren't going to flock to Dean; they're going to the three aforementioned candidates, especially the first and third.

Dean shot himself in Iowa, but not NH and not NM. His ads have been running in NH, he's still a favorite there. NH is in a week ... Edwards has little if any support there currently, it'lll be a long shot for him to finish in the top 3.

So, let's say Clark upsets everyoen and Dean finishes in 2nd, Kerry in 3rd and Edwards in 4th. What happens then?

[Netphorian Gadabout]

Originally posted by Nimrod's Son
Just because I think Bush is going to win it doesn't make me a Republican. Just because I think the Lakers will win the western conference doesn't make me a Lakers fan.

Dude, you're as conservative as there is to be found on netphoria, your statements make that manifest.

And $20 says Lakers don't win.

[Netphorian Gadabout]

Originally posted by sppunk


Dean shot himself in Iowa, but not NH and not NM.

I was unaware when someone says really stupid things that only people in the state in which he said it hears them. That's why I get newspapers sent to me for all 50 states - because no one outside of Iowa knows what happened in Iowa!

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally posted by Pumpkins23836
Dude, you're as conservative as there is to be found on netphoria, your statements make that manifest.

And $20 says Lakers don't win.

Conservative /= Republican.

Basically, the GOP is generally too far left for me.

[sppunk]

Originally posted by Pumpkins23836
I was unaware when someone says really stupid things that only people in the state in which he said it hears them. That's why I get newspapers sent to me for all 50 states - because no one outside of Iowa knows what happened in Iowa!

NH can give a fuck about Iowa. NM doesn't pay attention until the candidates come visit them. Iowa is based on momentum for the candidates to head to other states.

[Netphorian Gadabout]

Originally posted by Nimrod's Son
Basically, the GOP is generally too far left for me.

Is that a typo? Seriously?

[beef curtains]

Originally posted by Nimrod's Son
I still think Kerry is going to get the nomination.

Thank you for responding with a valid argument