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#31 |
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Braindead
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Location: PROWLING THE BADLANDS
Posts: 16,215
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this is pretty science i guess
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#32 | ||
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*****
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Posts: 15,778
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Your post had me go back to the doctor to see what it was. It was just some of the flesh off of my throat ripping off.
Quote:
Quote:
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#33 | |
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Banned
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Posts: 8,997
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Quote:
And even then, take it all with a big grain of sea-salt: Big Science is broken That's the thesis of a must-read article in First Things magazine, in which William A. Wilson accumulates evidence that a lot of published research is false. But that's not even the worst part. |
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#34 | |
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BOTTLEG ILLEGAL
![]() Location: I'm faced with so many changes that I just might change my face
Posts: 31,891
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The article it is talking about has a lot of problems. When performing a hypothesis test, you are not saying that the hypothesis is proven or not proven. You are saying that the original hypothesis, which is the null hypothesis (aka the treatment had no effect) can be accepted or rejected. Because it is much more costly to have a false positive than a false negative, we take a very conservative approach that only if a finding is very unlikely to have happened by chance, and I mean VERY UNLIKELY, do we say we can reject the null hypothesis.
This means, even if 1 in 20 published reports of scientific findings really found nothing statistically significant and we reported in error that it did, the fact that we've taken such a conservative approach and are picking things to study in the first place that very likely are correlated at some level based on the initial research into picking the experiment in the first place, it is very likely that an additional finding of a repeated study as being not statistically significant is in fact finding just that - that the difference is not statistically significant - not that there wasn't a difference at all, or that the difference is somehow completely the opposite of the truth. For example, this: Quote:
Of course any one test of finding a difference could be wrong, but all things being equal, if you did two tests and one was not able to reject the null hypothesis and one was, it is very likely that you can actually reject the null hypothesis, because we need an extreme value to even say we can reject it, in most cases almost 2 standard deviations away from nonsignificance, and other cases much more than that. So while, with a 5% false-positive rate we will find something that isn't actually there (to that degree) 1 in 20 times, most tests have a way higher false-negative rate - like 40%+ when there is in fact a difference, because we require such extreme scores to say yes, there's a difference. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statis...thesis_testing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors Last edited by reprise85 : 04-18-2016 at 09:34 PM. |
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#35 |
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Consume my pants.
![]() Location: Missouri
Posts: 36,063
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#36 |
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Shut the fuck up!
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Location: "Okay, white power feminist" - yo soy el mejor
Posts: 21,952
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One of my favorite crack pot theories regarding dinosaurs is the bouyancy theory, which claims that the earths atmosphere used to be much more dense. There's an interesting website which makes such a claim.
http://www.dinosaurtheory.com/solution.html As far as I know this is not taken seriously by any experts in the field. I find the guy's argument to be terribly weak. It is essentially that there is no other reasonable scientific argument to explain the scaling of dinosaurs, so therefore the earth had a super drnse atmosphere. But science doesn't work that way. Lack of knowledge is not a valid argument in favor of something. |
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#37 |
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Brazilian Blouselord
![]() Location: heavy metal pool party
Posts: 35,674
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Size is relative, that's precisely the problem. I mean rats thrive as well as humans. Are we enormous giants? Evolution isn't what works BEST it's just what works at all. I don't understand how the conditions have to be that different for such things to exist as they did. Whales vs dolphins is a good example.
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#38 |
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Brazilian Blouselord
![]() Location: heavy metal pool party
Posts: 35,674
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That guy's a moron.
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#39 |
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Shut the fuck up!
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Location: "Okay, white power feminist" - yo soy el mejor
Posts: 21,952
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Environment does set limits on size. Flying Birds have never been much bigger than a condor. Any larger and the run into a problem of lift vs their mass. However, a hundred million years ago there were gigantic flying dinosaurs. And it's not fully understood how they were able to fly. Also, the density of the atmosphere plays a huge roll on flight. None of the earths birds could fly in the thin atmosphere of Mars.
Since the rise of mammals on land no species have approached the size of some dinosaurs. While large examples exist in the mammalian fossil record, giant sabor toothed cats and wolves for example, they tend to be evolutionary dead ends that dissapear when prey species are not plentiful. And they've never approached the enormous size of dinosaurs. Some Dinosaurs stayed incredibly large for more than a hundred million years. The largest animals to ever live are current whale species. 100 million years ago there were gigantic sea creatures as well, aquatic dinosaurs, sharks, etc. Size in the oceans doesn't seem to run into the same limits it did on land. |
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#40 |
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Braindead
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Location: PROWLING THE BADLANDS
Posts: 16,215
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or rather, the sea is a more fertile and wild habitat that is relatively uninterrupted by outside factors, re: humans
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#41 | |
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Shut the fuck up!
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Location: "Okay, white power feminist" - yo soy el mejor
Posts: 21,952
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Here's an article that talks about the current science that explains how sauropods got so large.
http://phenomena.nationalgeographic....s-super-sized/ Quote:
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