Thread for Statistical Analysis of fuzzy's Sports Betting Strategy

[fuzzyroes]

A word of wisdom from a mentor of mine:

"anything person does seriously - bares fruits as long as one uses all the tools of the trade and has the right methodology. I'm trying to make sure that those who want to have a success in sports handicapping - understand the price they have to pay time wise. You have to match the effort invested by those setting the odds and the lines if you want to compete with them. That should sometimes be opposing the lines they offer and at times joining themm

[fuzzyroes]

another great piece of wisdom from one of the brightest minds in sports handicapping:

"I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it - I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is as sweet as the one you won!"

[duovamp]

Sounds like something you said in 2013:

Fuzzrod
PM Fuzzrod
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 2534

Fuzzrod
Participation Meter
Veteran

quote#9
Posted: 10/29/2013 7:54:58 PM
I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it - I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is as sweet as the one you won!


http://www.covers.com/postingforum/p...&sub=101728492

[duovamp]

Yeah you do have a problem.

http://www.covers.com/profiles/Fuzzrod

[fuzzyroes]

Good grief, a rain delay in Pittsburgh... It's fucking mid August for crying out loud... How lame.

[buzzard]

Did they type those quotes out for you?

Bare fruit aside, I wonder if their sage-like guidance should be netting you better results than a rusty quarter.

[duovamp]

Buccos are going to lose. They always lose.

[Bread Regal]

Originally Posted by buzzard

How does fuzz's success rate so far compare to what one could expect from a series of coin tosses?

it's slightly more complicated than that, because we don't have information on odds and wagers.

that's why i asked for the entirety of the betting strategy, because those are the factors that help you beat the bottom line.

a friend of a friend of mine is apparently an expert on counting cards in blackjack. but here's the thing: if the cards in the deck favor him, he hits and stays just as he would normally, but it's his bet that changes.

example: if the bookie's odds on an event are 1:1, but you have reason to believe the actual probability is greater than 50%, you bet big, because your expected value from the bet is greater than $0.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by duovamp

Yeah you do have a problem.

http://www.covers.com/profiles/Fuzzrod

Lol. Yes, that is in fact me :P nice find.

Covers is an excellent tool and a great site to find a lot of your sports handicapping needs. I highly recommend the "scores and matchups" section... tons of great information.

But major warning, DO NOT use the forums to look for good picks. Most of the contributors there are MAJOR losers. Reading their write-ups will do more bad and cloud your opinion than any good it might do.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by duovamp

Buccos are going to lose. They always lose.

It's gonna be close, that much is certain...

Damn man... Dolphins are killing me. I might step aside from betting pre-season and just wait for the regular season.

[Bread Regal]

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

The key to being a profitable sports handicapper is smart money management.

and you're not providing any information on that strategy. so this is all kind of useless unless you're sharing the whole ticket.

[fuzzyroes]

Just wait, when you see 70% of the picks winning I think it'll be worth while

I might just hold off until the NFL regular season though.

NFL and NBA are my money makers, baseballs kinda more of just a hobby and I don't even usually bet more than 75$ a day on it.

I mix in some parlays and stuff too to better enhance my chances of making a daily profit, and it would become a little confusing if I'm posting every 10 dollar parlay ticket I make.

[FlamingGlobes]

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

another great piece of wisdom from one of the brightest minds in sports handicapping:

"I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it - I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is as sweet as the one you won!"

I find going against the to be very risky a swell.

[Bread Regal]

https://i.imgflip.com/1ua9v0.jpg

[FlamingGlobes]

https://i.imgflip.com/1o3jph.jpg

[buzzard]

Do you put bets down across a variety of sports and competitions, later deciding that the more positive patches in your performance are the more relevant and that those lesser results didn't form part of a "money maker" worthy of any further thought?

[FlamingGlobes]

Originally Posted by buzzard

Do you put bets down across a variety of sports and competitions, later deciding that the more positive patches in your performance are the more relevant and that those lesser results didn't form part of a "money maker" worthy of any further thought?

http://i.imgur.com/MmBKV8X.gif

[Bread Regal]

16 August 2017

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

Pittsburgh Pirates ML
Pittsburgh Pirates RL (meaning they win by 2 or more)

St Louis Cardinals 11
Pittsburgh Pirates 7

❌ ML
❌ RL

San Diego Padres ML
San Diego Padres RL (meaning they win by 2 or more)

Washington Nationals 2
San Diego Padres 1

❌ ML
❌ RL

Miami Dolphins -2.5

Baltimore Ravens 31
Miami Dolphins 7

❌

[Bread Regal]

Current record: 6-11 (giving you the Jaguars game)

[buzzard]

It's a little premature to say he's 6-11 when you haven't even heard why some of those bad calls don't count.

[Cool As Ice Cream]

lol

[Cool As Ice Cream]

Nice picks fellas. Let this be the beginning of a prosperous season for us all! We deserve it

[Cool As Ice Cream]

"Yeah, I think the game might be close. I see each team wanting this pretty badly."

insight

[fuzzyroes]

Fuck... Absolute blood-bath last night... Brutal...

But let me be frank guys, losing 150 dollars in a night is never a good thing, but I still have over 1K set aside strictly for my current gambling expeditions. (and even if I lost all of that I still have money in the bank to re-up my account)

Of course losing over 10% of your allocated gambling bankroll in 1 night is bad strategy, but that was the worst night I've had in ages.

One thing I gotta teach you guys is: You can't get too excited and cocky when you win and you can't get all bummed out when you lose. It's all a part of the ebbs and flow of a long season.

[fuzzyroes]

All that aside though. I have a surefire winner for you all tomorrow night.

I'm laying down 330 dollars on it to make back what I lost yesterday and then some.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3.5

And this is where being a great gambler comes into play. Even though I had an awful showing last night, I'm good enough to spot out when there's a sure thing and fucking hammer it a like a boss.

[fuzzyroes]

Got a pick for today:

Minnesota +3.5

[Bread Regal]

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

I'm laying down 330 dollars on it to make back what I lost yesterday and then some

id rather you didn't

[reprise85]

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

Fuck... Absolute blood-bath last night... Brutal...

But let me be frank guys, losing 150 dollars in a night is never a good thing, but I still have over 1K set aside strictly for my current gambling expeditions. (and even if I lost all of that I still have money in the bank to re-up my account)

Of course losing over 10% of your allocated gambling bankroll in 1 night is bad strategy, but that was the worst night I've had in ages.

One thing I gotta teach you guys is: You can't get too excited and cocky when you win and you can't get all bummed out when you lose. It's all a part of the ebbs and flow of a long season.

when is the last time you had to re-up your account?

[FlamingGlobes]

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

But let me be frank guys, losing 150 dollars in a night is never a good thing, but I still have over 1K set aside strictly for my current gambling expeditions. (and even if I lost all of that I still have money in the bank to re-up my account)

Having a "gambling budget" doesn't exactly work if you end up dipping into the rest of your funds, just sayin'.

[FlamingGlobes]

Jesus, I can't imagine throwing $1,000 at nothing. That shit makes my stomach turn. No wonder you drink so much, fuzzzzz.