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08-17-2017, 08:46 PM | #61 |
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A word of wisdom from a mentor of mine:
"anything person does seriously - bares fruits as long as one uses all the tools of the trade and has the right methodology. I'm trying to make sure that those who want to have a success in sports handicapping - understand the price they have to pay time wise. You have to match the effort invested by those setting the odds and the lines if you want to compete with them. That should sometimes be opposing the lines they offer and at times joining themm |
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08-17-2017, 08:49 PM | #62 |
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Posts: 21,169
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another great piece of wisdom from one of the brightest minds in sports handicapping:
"I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it - I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is as sweet as the one you won!" |
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08-17-2017, 08:53 PM | #63 |
Brazilian Blouselord
Location: heavy metal pool party
Posts: 35,781
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Sounds like something you said in 2013:
Fuzzrod PM Fuzzrod Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 2534 Fuzzrod Participation Meter Veteran quote#9 Posted: 10/29/2013 7:54:58 PM I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it - I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is as sweet as the one you won! http://www.covers.com/postingforum/p...&sub=101728492 |
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08-17-2017, 08:54 PM | #64 |
Brazilian Blouselord
Location: heavy metal pool party
Posts: 35,781
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08-17-2017, 08:56 PM | #65 |
Banned
Posts: 21,169
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Good grief, a rain delay in Pittsburgh... It's fucking mid August for crying out loud... How lame.
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08-17-2017, 08:57 PM | #66 |
Minion of Satan
Posts: 6,781
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Did they type those quotes out for you?
Bare fruit aside, I wonder if their sage-like guidance should be netting you better results than a rusty quarter. |
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08-17-2017, 08:57 PM | #67 |
Brazilian Blouselord
Location: heavy metal pool party
Posts: 35,781
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Buccos are going to lose. They always lose.
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08-17-2017, 08:58 PM | #68 | |
Banned
Posts: 5,711
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Quote:
that's why i asked for the entirety of the betting strategy, because those are the factors that help you beat the bottom line. a friend of a friend of mine is apparently an expert on counting cards in blackjack. but here's the thing: if the cards in the deck favor him, he hits and stays just as he would normally, but it's his bet that changes. example: if the bookie's odds on an event are 1:1, but you have reason to believe the actual probability is greater than 50%, you bet big, because your expected value from the bet is greater than $0. |
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08-17-2017, 08:59 PM | #69 | |
Banned
Posts: 21,169
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Quote:
Covers is an excellent tool and a great site to find a lot of your sports handicapping needs. I highly recommend the "scores and matchups" section... tons of great information. But major warning, DO NOT use the forums to look for good picks. Most of the contributors there are MAJOR losers. Reading their write-ups will do more bad and cloud your opinion than any good it might do. |
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08-17-2017, 09:01 PM | #70 |
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Posts: 21,169
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08-17-2017, 09:02 PM | #71 |
Banned
Posts: 5,711
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08-17-2017, 09:15 PM | #72 |
Banned
Posts: 21,169
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Just wait, when you see 70% of the picks winning I think it'll be worth while
I might just hold off until the NFL regular season though. NFL and NBA are my money makers, baseballs kinda more of just a hobby and I don't even usually bet more than 75$ a day on it. I mix in some parlays and stuff too to better enhance my chances of making a daily profit, and it would become a little confusing if I'm posting every 10 dollar parlay ticket I make. |
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08-17-2017, 09:20 PM | #73 | |
Socialphobic
Location: I’ve been trying to move to the Nordic countries for 5 years but the cost is astronomical to become an expatriate
Posts: 14,679
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Quote:
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08-17-2017, 09:21 PM | #74 |
Banned
Posts: 5,711
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08-17-2017, 09:26 PM | #75 |
Socialphobic
Location: I’ve been trying to move to the Nordic countries for 5 years but the cost is astronomical to become an expatriate
Posts: 14,679
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08-17-2017, 09:27 PM | #76 |
Minion of Satan
Posts: 6,781
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Do you put bets down across a variety of sports and competitions, later deciding that the more positive patches in your performance are the more relevant and that those lesser results didn't form part of a "money maker" worthy of any further thought?
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08-17-2017, 09:30 PM | #77 | |
Socialphobic
Location: I’ve been trying to move to the Nordic countries for 5 years but the cost is astronomical to become an expatriate
Posts: 14,679
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Quote:
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08-18-2017, 01:29 AM | #78 | |||
Banned
Posts: 5,711
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16 August 2017
Quote:
Pittsburgh Pirates 7 ❌ ML ❌ RL Quote:
San Diego Padres 1 ❌ ML ❌ RL Quote:
Miami Dolphins 7 ❌ |
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08-18-2017, 01:30 AM | #79 |
Banned
Posts: 5,711
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Current record: 6-11 (giving you the Jaguars game)
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08-18-2017, 02:27 AM | #80 |
Minion of Satan
Posts: 6,781
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It's a little premature to say he's 6-11 when you haven't even heard why some of those bad calls don't count.
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08-18-2017, 02:37 AM | #81 |
Just Hook it to My Veins!
Location: František! How's the foot of your turtle?
Posts: 32,743
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lol
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08-18-2017, 02:41 AM | #82 |
Just Hook it to My Veins!
Location: František! How's the foot of your turtle?
Posts: 32,743
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Nice picks fellas. Let this be the beginning of a prosperous season for us all! We deserve it
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08-18-2017, 02:42 AM | #83 |
Just Hook it to My Veins!
Location: František! How's the foot of your turtle?
Posts: 32,743
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"Yeah, I think the game might be close. I see each team wanting this pretty badly."
insight |
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08-18-2017, 05:32 PM | #84 |
Banned
Posts: 21,169
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Fuck... Absolute blood-bath last night... Brutal...
But let me be frank guys, losing 150 dollars in a night is never a good thing, but I still have over 1K set aside strictly for my current gambling expeditions. (and even if I lost all of that I still have money in the bank to re-up my account) Of course losing over 10% of your allocated gambling bankroll in 1 night is bad strategy, but that was the worst night I've had in ages. One thing I gotta teach you guys is: You can't get too excited and cocky when you win and you can't get all bummed out when you lose. It's all a part of the ebbs and flow of a long season. |
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08-18-2017, 05:35 PM | #85 |
Banned
Posts: 21,169
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All that aside though. I have a surefire winner for you all tomorrow night.
I'm laying down 330 dollars on it to make back what I lost yesterday and then some. WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3.5 And this is where being a great gambler comes into play. Even though I had an awful showing last night, I'm good enough to spot out when there's a sure thing and fucking hammer it a like a boss. |
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08-18-2017, 05:38 PM | #86 |
Banned
Posts: 21,169
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Got a pick for today:
Minnesota +3.5 |
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08-18-2017, 05:40 PM | #87 |
Banned
Posts: 5,711
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08-18-2017, 05:54 PM | #88 | |
BOTTLEG ILLEGAL
Location: I'm faced with so many changes that I just might change my face
Posts: 32,800
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Quote:
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08-18-2017, 06:37 PM | #89 |
Socialphobic
Location: I’ve been trying to move to the Nordic countries for 5 years but the cost is astronomical to become an expatriate
Posts: 14,679
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Having a "gambling budget" doesn't exactly work if you end up dipping into the rest of your funds, just sayin'.
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08-18-2017, 06:37 PM | #90 |
Socialphobic
Location: I’ve been trying to move to the Nordic countries for 5 years but the cost is astronomical to become an expatriate
Posts: 14,679
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Jesus, I can't imagine throwing $1,000 at nothing. That shit makes my stomach turn. No wonder you drink so much, fuzzzzz.
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