Numbers show Clinton faces near-impossible task

[Tchocky]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/119010

I've asked several prominent uncommitted superdelegates if there's any chance they would reverse the will of Democratic voters. They all say no. It would shatter young people and destroy the party.

Clinton's only hope lies in the popular vote—a yardstick on which she now trails Obama by about 600,000 votes.

It's still not looking good for Hillz.

[sppunk]

Obama won't claim the needed number of delegates (withholding superdelegates) either.

[Gish08]

This shit better not keep going until the convention or else Dems will surely be setting themselves up for an embarrassing loss in November...

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by sppunk

Obama won't claim the needed number of delegates (withholding superdelegates) either.

What happens then? Honest question.

[mccririck]

Obama for the win!

[Tchocky]

The long and short of the article is, even if Hillary wins the upcoming states that she should win in landslides and pulls off shocking upsets in states such as North Carolina and Mississippi, Obama still winds up with the delegate advantage in the end. And if Obama has the delegate count and the popular vote in the end, the superdelegates won't risk splintering the party just to give her the nomination.

And this article even factored in Michigan and Florida.

[sppunk]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

What happens then? Honest question.

Superdelegates decide the candidate.

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by sppunk

Superdelegates decide the candidate.

Well I knew that. I'm asking what happens if it comes down to that. Probably too early to ask that question, though.

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by sppunk

Superdelegates decide the candidate.

I'm not sure what your point is. The superdelegates quoted in that article say they won't go against the majority of Democrats, meaning Clinton has to overtake Obama in the popular vote.

Whoever has the most popular votes will get the superdelegates. For the superdelegates to go otherwise would fracture the party and cause voters to feel disenfranchised.

[sppunk]

I never said they wouldn't, I was just answering his questions.

Superdelegates are going for Obama - he already has more than 200 "pledged" and they will remain with him because he'll have a lead in votes cast.

[Caine Walker]

in sum: clinton needs to face facts, rally the party, and get behind obama.

[wHATcOLOR]

let's say obama gets the nomination, is there any chance hillary would be his runningmate as vp? how about if the reverse happened, any chance obama would be her runningmate as vp? i don't know much about this stuff

[Nimrod's Son]

They won't pick each other. Whomever wins will pick a white guy, most likely a southerner, to run with.

[Future Boy]

Jonathan Alter really isnt the best source you could turn to. Unless he took a poll of all the superdelegates theres nothing here.

If the superdelegates decide for Obama, why wont that fracture the party and alienate Clinton supporters (a higher percentage of which would back McCain, compared to Obama supporters)? Honest question.

If you guys recall Obama's first tactic for getting the superdelegates was saying for them to go the way their states voted, but then switched to the overall delegate lead. Well someone did the math and figured out Hillary would get more that way, so no wonder they switched. Its kind of funny.

[Future Boy]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

They won't pick each other. Whomever wins will pick a white guy, most likely a southerner, to run with.

I think she'll have to take him, and he will go with Daschle. Daschle was the one pushing him to run practically since he got in the Senate.

[maoi]

There is a near insurmountable statistical hurdle HRC needs to clear if she wants to win. She needs to beat Obama in every contest by a margin of 20 points just to pull even with him. If HRC was at all concerned for the democrats winning the presidency this November, then she needs to start preparing her concession speech now and bow out gracefully. I can't see how drawing out this campaign won't leave either contender battered. Why would McCain have to dig on Obama when HRC is already doing it?

[maoi]

Originally Posted by Gish08

This shit better not keep going until the convention or else Dems will surely be setting themselves up for an embarrassing loss in November...

It is true even now with Florida and Michigan considering to appeal to the DNC to have their delegates seated. Can you imagine the major backlash if that ever happened, particularly from the Al Sharpton/Jesse Jackson contingent?

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Future Boy

I think she'll have to take him, and he will go with Daschle. Daschle was the one pushing him to run practically since he got in the Senate.

I could see Daschle, but I still expect a southerner.. Daschle is from SD, right?

I don't think she'd pick him. I think she'd go with Wesley Clark or Jim Webb

[Andrew_Pakula]

I could see Hilary maybe offering the VP spot to Obama if she somehow ended up with the nomination, she would be pressured to, however I don't think Obama would accept.

If Obama wins he definitely won't choose Hilary, if he is serious about "change" then he has to go with someone else.

[Caine Walker]

Originally Posted by Andrew_Pakula

If Obama wins he definitely won't choose Hilary, if he is serious about "change" then he has to go with someone else.

exactly.

[Nimrod's Son]

I hope Obama picks Al Sharpton

[Future Boy]

Thats a tough one for him though. He's going to have to pick someone with experience which kind of goes against his change shtick. Even Daschle, hes got the Iraq war baggage Obama campaigns against. Kind of painted himself into a corner on that one.

Daschle is from SD.

[maoi]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

I hope Obama picks Al Sharpton

Odd how Al Sharpton and JEsse Jackson been suspiciously quiet throughout his whole campaign. Probably being paid off by the Obama campaign to shut the fuck up and not ruin it.

[jared]

how about Harold Ford Jr.

[beef curtains]

She really is hell bent on destroying the democratic party. I can think of no other reason that she would continue since her people have done the math and read the articles...

[Skradgee]

Originally Posted by beef curtains

She really is hell bent on destroying the democratic party. I can think of no other reason that she would continue since her people have done the math and read the articles...

Then think harder. Obama won't be able to achieve the needed number of delegates without superdelegates and neither will she, so they both continue. It's easy to understand, really. Plus, healthcare...not for SOME Americans, but for ALL Americans, is a good-enough reason to me for her to continue.

[Future Boy]

Originally Posted by beef curtains

She really is hell bent on destroying the democratic party. I can think of no other reason that she would continue since her people have done the math and read the articles...

They are seperated by little in terms of the delegate count, he cant win without superdelegates either, he would need to win each remaining state with 85% in order to win it. So why is it her destroying the party?

Going by your thinking Obama shouldve dropped out after super tuesday when She had the delegate lead.WHY DOES OBAMA WANT TO DESTROY THE PARTY?

[Skradgee]

Originally Posted by Andrew_Pakula

I could see Hilary maybe offering the VP spot to Obama if she somehow ended up with the nomination, she would be pressured to, however I don't think Obama would accept.

Why do you think he'd not accept? I think he'd take it if we got to a point where he lost and he realized that his chance was over. Then again...he could just continue his career as a senator.

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by Future Boy

Going by your thinking Obama shouldve dropped out after super tuesday when She had the delegate lead.WHY DOES OBAMA WANT TO DESTROY THE PARTY?

i don't think he has ever lost the lead in pledged delegates.

[Future Boy]

I ******* supers into it, thats what they go by in the counts most of the time.