Fuzzys on the money, expert NBA picks

[The Omega Concern]

Originally Posted by Trotskilicious

yeah i don't understand, i thought it meant that the suns would win by a point and sacto would win by 4 but if it's just they have to beat it then congratulations fuzzy, but still please shut the fuck up

nothings an easy bet. but if throughout the course of the year you bet on the Home team underdog, especially if somehow the road team is on a back to back or something...then you'd prolly be well over 50% on those bets in the aggregate.

or better if you know when to lay off or go against the mode on those situations.

[Trotskilicious]

Originally Posted by The Omega Concern

i dunno bout the NBA but its freaky how close the odds makers are on the NFL lines. It's amazing really.

advanced statistics basically

the strategy makes sense for sure, it in no way means "fixed" if you can win more than half your bets. i was not surprised suns won tonight tbh they have a very interesting squad and Len played very well and IT was absolutely killing SA, he's so little and quick you lose him in screens and his jumper is immediate and accurate tonight at least

kings winning that big shocked me to say the least

i'm not interested in gambling so i don't

[The Omega Concern]

ya,, i don't either. but i got a friend who was a bookie for years and i was always curious to the odds...and how he always said the fix was in.


and i was backwards on the Sacto bet of fuzzy's... you bet the dog your betting a 100 to win something over that...juice money.

[hnibos]

https://m.imgur.com/a/Nmbus

[Trotskilicious]

Some of those are great esp about lil b and that ty lawson one. Have no clue what nick collison is on about or isaiah thomas for that matter. Kd and lillard looks like a jackoffs tho

[hnibos]

I thought kd was a more upstanding gentleman but he was like 20 in some of those tweets maybe he's changed.

[Trotskilicious]

I mean its not like i wasnt saying everything was gay when i was 20. Lillard is 20 rigt now i think

Goddam these dudes is young

[fuzzyroes]

Got an evening pick for you friends.

UTAH + 2

The Mormons will defeat the Suns tonight

[fuzzyroes]

The Fix is in for the NCAAF tonight too for anyone whos interested

UCLA -6.5

[Trotskilicious]

Fuzzy stop talking about the fix do you understand the concept of advanced statistcs and bookmaking? Fuck man

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by The Omega Concern

What kind of research you talking about here? Line moves? Elephants swooping in on one side? Donaghy types still lurking in the NBA ranks? would love to know...

It's really a whole bunch of factors. Reverse line movements are often times a dead give away that a game is fixed. In case you don't know, a reverse line movement is when a line drops in a teams favor even though the majority of the public is on that team. Say the Raptors are playing Miami and the line is -5 for Miami and lets say 72% of the public is on Miami. If the line starts dropping to Miami -4... then -3 later in the day despite the public being all over Miami then what you have is a classic reverse line movement and you should bet Toronto Large.

I'm basically just getting into the head of what Vegas is trying to entice the public to do, so websites that track the public consensus on wagers are also a big help. Vegas isn't in the business of giving away free money.

[fuzzyroes]

The myth is that Vegas is trying to get 50-50 action on both sides so they can clean up on the vigorish. That may be the case with Hockey and Baseball but it's clearly a load of crap when it comes to the NBA/.

[fuzzyroes]

Utah +2 is money in the bank (as always).

Not only did I win my bet, but the bet covered by 29 points. Hey, when you're good you're good.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by The Omega Concern

good call on Sacto...whadja see there considering that awful opener of theirs against the Dubs?

Reverse line movement galore.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by The Omega Concern

i dunno bout the NBA but its freaky how close the odds makers are on the NFL lines. It's amazing really.

A little too amazing right? *light bulb turns on*

[Elphenor]

How is Fuzzy managing to out conspiracy nutjob Omega?

This is impressive

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by Trotskilicious

advanced statistics basically

the strategy makes sense for sure, it in no way means "fixed" if you can win more than half your bets.

I'm way over 50 percent when it comes to NBA. I absolutely destroy the NBA.

The funny thing is, if I was placing my wagers on who I thought had the better team and what teams had the most talent I'd have bet the opposite on everyone of my plays that I've posted here. And I would have lost every one.

Logic goes out the window when it comes to the NBA.

The clearest example of a fix was a few years back. The Spurs were on just a brutal stretch when it came to travel and the amount of games they were playing. I believe they were on a 2nd game of a back to back against the World Champion Miami Heat and Popovich benched everyone of his starters.
The original line was something like Miami -5.5 and later dropped to about -15. There was absolutely no reason in the world why Miami shouldn't have just wiped the floor with the Spurs. Well, in NBA fashion not only did San Antonio cover the new spread, they EVEN covered the original spread and thus made an absolute KILLING for Vegas.

The league later went on to fine Popovich 25 000 dollars. How can a league fine a manager for making a personnel decision? Sketchy, sketchy, sketchy.

Clear as day fix.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by Poots

Fuzzy, how do you feel about the Patriots being 3 point underdogs at home vs the Broncos? It's going to snow and everyone knows Peyton's neck will ice over and his head will fall off.

Just gonna start capping my NFL games right now. I'll let you know once I analyze the match-up a little closer.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by Elphenor

How is Fuzzy managing to out conspiracy nutjob Omega?

This is impressive

Conspiracy or not, The results speak for themselves. You guys should be ecstatic that I'm sharing these with you and jump on board and make yourselves some money.

[Trotskilicious]

Originally Posted by Elphenor

How is Fuzzy managing to out conspiracy nutjob Omega?

This is impressive

seriously, i'm not even going to read or respond to him

he just picked yet another road team losing after a back to back and he can't even see the fucking pattern yet

[fuzzyroes]

why the hate? As much as i doubt the purity of the sport, I'm a big NBA fan just as you are.

[fuzzyroes]

I think back to backs this early in the season are a none story. These are all professional athletes we're talking about. And it hasn't affected the other teams who played back2backs so far.

[I'm Hardcore]

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

why the hate?

because you wont fucking shut up about "the fix". it's not real.

[fuzzyroes]

I understand that it sounds crazy. But I've seen a lot of baloney, particularly in the NBA. Teams will be covering by about 8 points with 2 minutes left and then just absolutely collapse and not give an ounce of effort while the other team goes on a meaningless stretch only to end up screwing the cover by 1 point. It's incredibly obvious.

And theres no rules at all against the league fixing games. It's merely an entertainment industry, much like the WWE.

[Elphenor]

Like every grand conspiracy you realize there's zero chance that the NBA could get away with it without someone leaking it and it becoming huge news

[fuzzyroes]

In my opinion the only sport with no fixes at all is the MLB and NHL and most likely the college leagues.

Now I'm not saying that EVERY game is fixed, but theres definitely some that are.

For example, the NFL game that was played in England last week. I knew that they wanted to showcase the game abroad and due to that I was well aware that it would "just happen to be" some sensational game and that the score would likely end within a field goal or less. So I hit up that prop and cleaned up. It's all too obvious.

Of course the game in London wasn't going to be some snooze fest, it was always going to be some edge of your seat, sensational thriller. The NFL would have it no other way.

[Elphenor]

Lol

[I'm Hardcore]

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

I understand that it sounds crazy. But I've seen a lot of baloney, particularly in the NBA. Teams will be covering by about 8 points with 2 minutes left and then just absolutely collapse and not give an ounce of effort while the other team goes on a meaningless stretch only to end up screwing the cover by 1 point. It's incredibly obvious.

really how often does that happen? a team giving up an 8 point lead with 2 minutes to go. hardly ever. I watch / follow a hell of a lot of regular season games, and i really dont see it happen very often.


maybe we/you/not me should keep a tally this season, of how many times that happens.

[fuzzyroes]

UPDATE: UCLA -6.5 is money in the bank.

Utah + 2 $$$$$
UCLA -6.5 $$$$

Posted play record now sits at 4-0.

It's funny how I have all of these doubters, but my picks really will speak for themselves, as you are already starting to understand.

[I'm Hardcore]

basketball is a game of momentum.

i mean look at Kings vs Blazers yesterday, when the Kings went on a 13-0 run. Portland essentially threw the game away during that stretch, but they sure as shit looked like they were trying.