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Old 03-06-2007, 02:37 PM   #1
BlueStar
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Default The presidential nominating process - a potential megaprimary and reform proposals

The attempts of numerous states to move up their presidential primaries has reopened the question of whether or not we should reform our primary system and, if so, how?

What is currently happening...

Moving Towards a Megaprimary
"States with more than half the nation's population are zeroing in on Feb. 5 next year to stage their presidential primaries, creating a single day that could determine the major party nominees at a historically early point in the process," the Boston Globe reports.

"At least 19 states have moved or are considering moving their primaries to the first Tuesday in February -- contests that would follow earlier ones in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. If only the 10 largest of the 19 states move their primaries to Feb. 5, more than half the American population will have a chance to go to the polls on the same day, creating a one-day election that would become the prime focus of the campaign."

The New York Times: "New York is on the verge of joining the rush of states moving their primaries to the first Tuesday in February next year."


http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...gaprimary.html

An article about the issues of the current system and proposed reforms... Full article and all the links here: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/ref...nominating.htm

Nominating Process
ISSUES SURROUNDING THE CURRENT SYSTEM

1. New Hampshire and Iowa
New Hampshire and Iowa have established themselves as the permanent "poll position" occupants in the nation's presidential nominating season. Because of their "first-in-the-nation" status, these two small states consistently dominate media and candidate attention, thus giving them the power to make or break campaigns. The momentum from a win in one of these states, or more importantly, a symbolic victory as declared by the press, can help propel a candidate to the front of the horserace. ...

2. Frontloading
Perhaps most troubling, the mystique surrounding Iowa and New Hampshire has played a role in prompting the other 48 states to follow suit. The phenomenon of front-loading, or states pushing their primary dates forward to gain national attention, poses a major challenge to the nominating calendar. ...

Many states push their nominating contest further up in the calendar with the hope of increasing the role their citizens play in the process. Ironically, the aggregate effect of this impulse may achieve quite the opposite. With contests bunched together in a short period of time, candidates may actually be less able to spend a great deal of time interacting with voters. "In an effort to make their states more important, they've actually reduced the opportunities for candidates to campaign there or do any retail politicking," observed former New Hampshire GOP Chairman Steve Duprey in a July 1999 Washington Post article.

Front-loading also impacts the quantity and quality of media coverage. ...

Front-loading also makes it less likely that media outlets will focus on issue coverage as opposed to horserace reporting-calling "winners" and "losers" one contest after another. ...

Furthermore, a front-loaded primary schedule works to the advantage of front-runners and helps consolidate their advantage. ...

Among it findings, the Vanishing Voter Project concludes that reform proposals, when it comes to the nominating process, should be judged on the basis of their ability to foster:

1. A shorter campaign;
2. A nominating process that remains competitive for a longer period of time in order to give the public a greater opportunity to engage the campaign and to become informed about the candidates;
3. A briefer interval between the decisive contests and the conventions in order to help people sustain the levels of public engagement and information they had attained when the nominating campaign peaked; and
4. A system that increases the likelihood that voters in all states will have an effective voice in the selection of the nominees. ...

PROPOSED SOLUTIONS

1. National Primary Day
Under this plan, all states would hold their primary or caucus on the same day-a pre-election Election Day. The idea was introduced as early as 1913 by Woodrow Wilson but has gained little momentum. For all intents and purposes, as front-loading increases as a trend, the nation seems to be naturally moving in the direction of what amounts to a national primary. "You had 20 states in February in '96. You had 35 states in February 2000. I predict you will have 39 states in February 2004," said Sansonetti. "So, it is shifting to what is basically a national primary. It is a de facto national primary right now." ...

2. The Delaware Plan
The Delaware Plan is the brainchild of Delaware GOP state chairman Basil Battaglia. Under the Delaware Plan, the states would be grouped into four "pods" according to population, as determined by the decennial census. The smallest thirteen states would go first, followed by the next smallest thirteen states, then the twelve medium-sized states and finally the twelve largest states. ...

3. Rotating Primary Plan
The National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS), comprising of chief election officials across the nation, believes the nominating system today is unworkable and is pushing to scrap the front-loaded primary calendar. In 2000, the NASS recommended the Rotating Presidential Primary Plan and suggested that it be in place before the 2004 primaries.23 Under the proposal, the United States is divided into four regions-Northeast, Midwest, West, and South-having roughly the same number of votes in the Electoral College, based upon the 1990 census. The Northeast region (in red) has a total of 13 states and 127 electoral votes. The Midwest grouping (in yellow) has a total of 129 electoral votes in 12 states. The 13 western states (in blue) have 119 electoral votes. The South is the largest region (in green) with 163 electoral votes in 13 states. ...

4. Regional Lottery System
During the Symposium, Center director Larry Sabato proposed the Regional Lottery System. This plan divides the United States into four regions (identical to those in the Rotating Presidential Primary Plan). States in each region hold their nominating events in successive months, beginning in March and running through June. It is similar to the plan proposed by the NASS, but there are two key differences: the order of regions holding nominating events is determined by a lottery, and there are no lead-off states. ...

 
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