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Old 04-08-2020, 04:32 PM   #151
topleybird
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I've seen the 538 accuracy debate since, well, 2016, and I've seen arguments for both sides

All I know is I was watching their tracker live as results came in and it started out something like 70/30 in favor of Clinton

In fact here it is

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:34 PM   #152
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who knows how it'll go with the corona situation

Biden's best chance is coasting on default support and never having to debate

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:38 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by Elphenor View Post
who knows how it'll go with the corona situation

Biden's best chance is coasting on default support and never having to debate
Trumpís ratings have been going UP. What does Biden offer besides not being Trump?

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:39 PM   #154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topleybird View Post
I've seen the 538 accuracy debate since, well, 2016, and I've seen arguments for both sides

All I know is I was watching their tracker live as results came in and it started out something like 70/30 in favor of Clinton

In fact here it is
Nate Silver, in the weeks before the election, laid out that Trump had a clear shot at winning, about 1/4, and that his viable path was through the electoral college. He fucking called it.

statistical illiteracy drives me fucking nuts, sorry, I'm not trying to be a huge asshole I just think you guys really do not know how to interpret data and are operating basically in the same realm as people who listen to pundits on tv. it's all a lot of op-ed meaningless folk logic.

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:40 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by Squish Squash View Post
Trumpís ratings have been going UP. What does Biden offer besides not being Trump?
the anti-Trump animus is what unites the Democratic party

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:42 PM   #156
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that didn't help them last time

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:43 PM   #157
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Originally Posted by Squish Squash View Post
Trump’s ratings have been going UP. What does Biden offer besides not being Trump?
tbf "not being Trump" is a damn good look

plus the rust belt seems to just like him

you didn't see him lose in Michigan like Hillary

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:43 PM   #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topleybird View Post
I've seen the 538 accuracy debate since, well, 2016, and I've seen arguments for both sides

All I know is I was watching their tracker live as results came in and it started out something like 70/30 in favor of Clinton

In fact here it is
like are you kidding me that is really accurate. Clinton had a way more clear path to win. Trump needed all these little things to go his way. He won through a perfect storm of factors.

polls in 2016 were just about as accurate as other polls in recent elections. it was the fuckhead idiot pundits who misinterpreted everything and spewed that forth via the media, just like the republicans were shocked they lost in 2008 and 2012, just like the Dems were shocked they lost in 2000 and 2004. the math for all those elections was always there. people just want to believe what they want to believe

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:43 PM   #159
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Originally Posted by smashingjj View Post
that didn't help them last time
they weren't united last time. things here are very different after 4 years of trump

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:45 PM   #160
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Breeg do you like Biden as a politician and person

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:48 PM   #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redbreegull View Post
Nate Silver, in the weeks before the election, laid out that Trump had a clear shot at winning, about 1/4, and that his viable path was through the electoral college. He fucking called it.

statistical illiteracy drives me fucking nuts, sorry, I'm not trying to be a huge asshole I just think you guys really do not know how to interpret data and are operating basically in the same realm as people who listen to pundits on tv. it's all a lot of op-ed meaningless folk logic.
what prediction could possibly be proven "wrong"

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:48 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by redbreegull View Post
they weren't united last time. things here are very different after 4 years of trump
man I hope you're right but the democrats in this thread don't really seem united

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:52 PM   #163
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RBG, if you think the Democrats/Democratic voters are united you are really not paying attention. I am in two Bernie Sanders meme groups on FB. One has over 390 thousand members. The other has over 27 thousand. The OVERWHELMING sentiment in these groups is that we will not vote for Biden. Many similar sentiments are expressed on the Bernie Sanders subreddit I am subscribed to. I have heard people express their disgust for Biden IN person when I volunteered at Bernie’s office in St. Louis. Almost all of my friends were for Bernie. My close friends do not want Biden. Other people I went to college and high school with on my timeline are overwhelmingly for Bernie. They do NOT like Biden and many of them are not going to vote for him. HE WILL NOT BEAT TRUMP. Why do you think people keep saying #demexit? You are burying your head in the sand if you think the left wing is anything close to united.


FUCK BIDEN

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:53 PM   #164
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what did democrats not know about Trump in 2016 that they do know now that's going to rally the troops

it was predicted it was going to be the literal end of the world during that campaign

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:55 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by Disco King View Post
Wait, I thought Biden was accused of being a creepy old touchy uncle and sniffing hair, not of full-on rape.

*Googling noises*

Oh shit, I guess he might be a rapist, too
dang, seems his crew is doing a good job of keeping it quiet and NBD

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:56 PM   #166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Squish Squash View Post
RBG, if you think the Democrats/Democratic voters are united you are really not paying attention. I am in two Bernie Sanders meme groups on FB. One has over 390 thousand members. The other has over 27 thousand. The OVERWHELMING sentiment in these groups is that we will not vote for Biden. Many similar sentiments are expressed on the Bernie Sanders subreddit I am subscribed to. I have heard people express their disgust for Biden IN person when I volunteered at Bernie’s office in St. Louis. Almost all of my friends were for Bernie. My close friends do not want Biden. Other people I went to college and high school with on my timeline are overwhelmingly for Bernie. They do NOT like Biden and many of them are not going to vote for him. HE WILL NOT BEAT TRUMP. Why do you think people keep saying #demexit? You are burying your head in the sand if you think the left wing is anything close to united.


FUCK BIDEN
by all accounts these people don't vote enough anyway, not even for Bernie...whether that's because of suppression idk

that's kinda been the issue

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:00 PM   #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topleybird View Post
Breeg do you like Biden as a politician and person
And, if I could just build on this a bit with another question: Could you avoid calling everyone else in this thread an idiot because they don't necessarily agree with you

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:00 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by Elphenor View Post
what prediction could possibly be proven "wrong"
A prediction of the national-vote share more than five percentage points off in either direction?

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:02 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by Squish Squash View Post
I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers from, but I sincerely doubt 90% of Bernie supporters are going to vote Biden. Certainly not Bernie supporters from my generation (millennials) or Gen Z.
If 90% of Bernie supporters end up voting Biden, I'll send 100 (Canadian) bucks to whatever charity RBG picks.
*The numbers* led to dem voters staring at the screen in shock on election night 4 years ago. And that was without the current situation, which will turn polls from April into meaningless figures for November.
I know a bunch of the other predicted 10%, and all it tells me is that I'm betting on a low voter turnout.

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:03 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by topleybird View Post
I would like to find someone who really likes Biden's hazily defined policies and can articulate why, but I have been unable to so far

His entire support base seems to like him because he's not Trump and we somehow all collectively decided he's the most electable despite him not standing out in any way shape or form
word

and not a one will speak to the sexual assault allegations or has the chutzpah to say, 'eh, that doesn't really bother me.'

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:03 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by topleybird View Post
And, if I could just build on this a bit with another question: Could you avoid calling everyone else in this thread an idiot because they don't necessarily agree with you
netphoria, 2020: we're still trying

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:06 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by yo soy el mejor View Post
word

and not a one will speak to the sexual assault allegations or has the chutzpah to say, 'eh, that doesn't really bother me.'
RBG already said it doesnít matter if Biden is a rapist because a Trump is a worse rapist.

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:07 PM   #173
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if we all work together...

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:12 PM   #174
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:17 PM   #175
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This thread might at least serve as a great example of American individualism, where only each individual is completely correct in all of their entirely unique views on the single world that solely orbits every one of them.

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:20 PM   #176
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the only person talking like their opinion is tops is the dude who keeps capitalizing DATA-DRIVEN without offering any of it.

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:25 PM   #177
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Jokes aside, though, my best friend is a veteran political analyst and he completely agrees with the general sentiment espoused by those Bernie meme groups on Facebook as well as coincidentally sharing a great number of other views held by voluntarily maintained social acquaintances of ours.

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:31 PM   #178
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Yeah I mean thinking Bernie would beat Trump is my personal opinion. Thinking Bernie supporters generally dislike Biden is just from personal experience. RBG isn’t actually talking to Bernie supporters. I don’t give a shit what a CNN poll says, lots of Bernie supporters hate CNN and wouldn’t even take their poll I imagine.

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:36 PM   #179
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Quote:
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And, if I could just build on this a bit with another question: Could you avoid calling everyone else in this thread an idiot because they don't necessarily agree with you
that's what he's been doing for over ten years. it's surprising he can't rally people to his opinion... everyone just aggressively name-call people into voting Biden, that will do it.

 
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:40 PM   #180
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that's what he's been doing for over ten years. it's surprising he can't rally people to his opinion... everyone just aggressively name-call people into voting Biden, that will do it.
to be honest, that's what a lot of people on netphoria do or used to do

not that that makes anything better, it's just pretty standard fare

 
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