Fuzzy's easy money College Football thread

[The Omega Concern]

a troo betting addict would with his buddy, another betting addict. After that bet, they'll look at two birds on a tree branch and wager which one flies off it first. Then it's on to the cats or which one of their friends will be next to grab a beer out of the fridge.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by The Omega Concern

Fuzz, you got an NFL thread around here or what? Whatchoo got for tonight? I don't even know the spread...hold up...



Pats -8...damn. 47.5 total.

+350 or so for the Chiefs. All I know about the Chiefs is Alex Smith is still their QB. It'd be foolish to bet big money on KC, but if you have any faith in them as a team, those numbers look pretty decent, even on the road.

I stayed away from this game. I can't really get a good read on it. The line/bets placed don't really suggest anything one way or another. Tough to get a proper read on it.

Of course the degenerate in me hates not betting on the first game of the season, but ehhh it's this more responsible lifestyle thing I'm trying. No strong feeling? No bet.

[fuzzyroes]

Plus I see some juicy opportunities for Sunday... Gonna watch the line-movements over he next couple of days before I finalize the wager and announce anything though.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by reprise85

fuzzy do people bet on where hurricanes will land?

I'm not sure if there's any books that offer that kind of wager. I wouldn't be surprised though.

[FlamingGlobes]

What about betting on when a certain president will or will not be impeached?

[fuzzyroes]

Yeah definitely. But I don't like those futures bets much... Even with sports... Takes too long to get a potential return.

[Cool As Ice Cream]

what about penis not errect?

[fuzzyroes]

USC -5.5

[fuzzyroes]

Western Kentucky -7

[fuzzyroes]

Oregon State -2.5

[Cool As Ice Cream]

PENNIS NOT ERRECT

[FoolofaTook]

Lol true true

[Eulogy]

What about USC made you want to make that pick? I know it was right but that screamed Stanford
To me.

Before anyone gives me shit I picked Georgia against ND. That game didn't look like I thought it would though.

[jczeroman]

Originally Posted by Eulogy

What about USC made you want to make that pick? I know it was right but that screamed Stanford
To me.

Me too. I thought USC looked terrible last week and was highly overrated.

[jczeroman]

Hell, I think they still are overrated...

And this Sam Darnold bullshit really pisses me off too. He's not THAT great. He just happens to be USC's QB so. ..AUTOMATIC HEISMAN CONSIDERATION.

[fuzzyroes]

Originally Posted by Eulogy

What about USC made you want to make that pick? I know it was right but that screamed Stanford
To me

Yeah, that's what everyone thought. But even with the high volume of wagers on Stanford, the line kept on moving in USC's favor. That's what is known in the business as "reverse line movement". Theoretically a line should only move in favor of a team if they're getting the majority of the bets, and in this instance it was either big time money was coming in from an expert or Vegas was simply inviting for more people to bet on Stanford knowing full well USC would cover.

Remember, the best way to get a valuable read on an outcome of a game is tracking the line movements in correlation with the public wagers. That'll tell you way more than your personal evaluations.

[fuzzyroes]

My 2 other picks stunk though.

I'm currently 2-2 in this thread.

I think I'm gonna stick strictly to games featuring top 25 teams. Otherwise my theories are more prone to failure...

Even though I know I'm good, I'm still learning and always tweaking things myself.

[fuzzyroes]

I should also note that the size of a line makes a big difference too. If the line was say USC -2.5 I wouldn't have felt as good about it. But the line was -5.5 which essentially meant that USC would have to win by a touchdown or more. When betting football there's a massive difference between 2.5 and 5.5.

So when a numbers extra large in a teams favor when most people believe it shouldn't be, that's usually a good sign that they'll win by more than the line.

[fuzzyroes]

Remember, Vegas is built on fooling suckers.

[Eulogy]

Dude I know what the point spread means. But how do you compare where money goes v how the line moves? I thought movement was dictated mostly by public money.

[fuzzyroes]

Exactly. That's "what they say", but it's often times not true. Or if it is public money, often times the expert high-rollers can influence a line with their wager even though 70% of the public is on one side.... So if all signs suggest everyones loving one side, yet vegas has the line moving in the other teams favor, then you gotta roll with Vegas.

Decoding where the money is going isn't a fool-proof strategy, but I use a few different sites that I think give a good representation of where the money is going.

This is a GREAT site and invaluable tool for deciding what an outcome of a game is gonna be.

http://www.covers.com/sports/ncaaf/matchups

If you go there, you'll notice by the teams logo that there's a percentile in big bold numbers. That's the percentage of people picking the team in the covers point spread contest. Now sure, it's not an official number regarding wagers, but it gives you a solid idea of what people are thinking.

I then compare those percentages with the "betting trends" shown on this site and often times they matchup more than not

http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html?sort=rot

If I'm getting different numbers there's a few other sites I refer to. But those are the 2 main sites i use.

But really, Covers.com is the best. It'll help you out immensely if you're still doing the betting pools.

[fuzzyroes]

If you sign up with Covers they have some good forums and stuff too... But don't read em to get picks. Most of those idiots are always wrong. You can me as a friend there if you like. My user name is Fuzzrod

[Cool As Ice Cream]

Originally Posted by fuzzyroes

Most of those idiots are always wrong.

.

[fuzzyroes]

Missouri -7

[fuzzyroes]

ARIZONA +4

[fuzzyroes]

Alright mother truckers, here's the moment you've all been waiting for...

The time when I come across a sure thing, can't fucking miss.

I'm personally wagering 500$ on this one.

Honestly guys, hot fucking tip right here... GET IN ON IT.

Stanford -3.5

[Cool As Ice Cream]

sold the house went all in on fuzzy's tip thanks buddy

[FoolofaTook]

I got my foodstamps and my special transportation needs bus pass on this

my life is at steak

[Catherine Wheel]

It's hilarious how netphoria has turned into a gambling den. Netphoria: your daily gambling fix

[Cool As Ice Cream]

don't four get two take you're pills, man