The deal is going public

[BlueStar]

WTF? The Kucinich and Edwards campaigns are going public with their deal on viability. Yeah, it's now officially public...in areas where Kucinich is not viable (which is every area), those supporters = Edwards supporters.

And the USA poll has Edwards in 1st among those who are sure caucus-goers and 2 point behind Dean among likely caucus-goers. And the latest Des Moines Register poll has Kerry in 1st, Edwards in 2nd (Edwards in 1st when the Kucinich numbers are added to Edwards), Dean in 3rd, and Gephardt in 4th.

Yeah, specific polls numbers don't mean much in primaries (espeically caucuses), but this is the showing of a great trend...Edwards and Kerry on the rise, Dean and Gephardt on the downfall. The media attention generated from these polls will serve us quite well.

And my Republican uncle in Texas sent me a bunch of tulips today with a card saying "Congratulations on your candidate doing so well, know you played a part!"

This race is amazing. Everything is up for grabs now. Two weeks ago, Dean was a sure thing for 1st and Gephardt for 2nd. Now, anything can happen. It is all very very very fluid...it is a 4-man race now. And (since it is now after midnight) there is only 1 more day to go. I don't think anyone could have ever predicted that 1 day away from caucus night, this race would be so unpredicatble. Right now, I couldn't even hazard a vague guess as to who will finish 1st.

[Injektilo]

is there a website that explains Caucus's ? Cause I don't get 'em.
or a website with news updates on the democratic primary race?

I really regret not taking American Politics in second year.

[sppunk]

1. Dean
2. Kerry
3. Edwards
4. Clark
5. Sharpton

[Ghetto_Squirrel]

Caucuses sound like more fun than regular primaries because you get to stand around in areas until they find out your candidate doesn't have enough people and then you run around to other groups. It's like preferential voting.

[BlueStar]

Originally posted by Injektilo
is there a website that explains Caucus's ? Cause I don't get 'em.
or a website with news updates on the democratic primary race?

I really regret not taking American Politics in second year.

http://www.iowademocrats.org/article...30602150919768
http://www.iowademocrats.org/article...30429134155982

[BlueStar]

Originally posted by Ghetto_Squirrel
Caucuses sound like more fun than regular primaries because you get to stand around in areas until they find out your candidate doesn't have enough people and then you run around to other groups. It's like preferential voting.

And you get to bargain with people and try to keep other people from stealing your people. It's like some weird summer camp game for old people.

[Ghetto_Squirrel]

I know. I miss out on all the fun things by being registered Green.

[BlueStar]

And, in the latest polls (and all the earlier polls), Edwards is the #1 2nd choice among every candidate's supporters (which is very significant for caucuses because of viability and realignment).

[machinaddict]

Originally posted by BlueStar
And, in the latest polls (and all the earlier polls), Edwards is the #1 2nd choice among every candidate's supporters (which is very significant for caucuses because of viability and realignment).

you are going to be so disappointed if he loses, aren't you?

[BlueStar]

Hahahahaha...we sent these two little undergrad volunteers from Missouri to bumblefuck IA today...there was a house with 60 cats, a domestic violence dispute in the parking lot of a gas station, an apartment building 10 miles down a dirt road, and a double-wide filled with plastic figurines. They just got back from their all day journey and are telling us their tales. Fuck...I'm lovin' it.

[BlueStar]

Originally posted by machinaddict

you are going to be so disappointed if he loses, aren't you?

He won't be losing in my 5 counties.

[SPZero]

i fucking hate politics

[NeverTonightA]

Originally posted by BlueStar
And, in the latest polls (and all the earlier polls), Edwards is the #1 2nd choice among every candidate's supporters (which is very significant for caucuses because of viability and realignment).

Not one poll that is believeable has Edwards in front, sorry.

[sawdust restaurants]

Originally posted by NeverTonightA
Not one poll that is believeable has Edwards in front, sorry.

No, but the Register's poll has him 2 points out of the lead, which if I'm not mistaken is well within its margin of error, so statistically in that poll he's in a dead heat for first.

For that matter, all of them are. Zogby's got Edwards running about six or seven points behind at this point, with Gephardt just a percentage point above him and then Kerry and Dean clustered at the top.

But like Samantha said, none of this really matters. Polls are a shaky method to gauge how one is going to do in a caucus, in which getting people out to other folks' houses at 6:30 at night for what could be an hours-long process is what's going to give a candidate his votes. In that respect, Dean and Gephardt have the obvious advantages, with Kerry behind them and then Edwards behind all three of them. But Edwards' support in rural Iowa and his position as many folks' second choice could propel him upward. Or Kerry's ground game could be better than expected. Or Dean could blow everyone out of the water with a slew of young voters underrepresented in the polls. Or Gephardt's union support could come out strong. There's no way of knowing, and for people to dismiss any one of the four candidates right now is, pure and simple, idiocy and ignorance.

[beef curtains]

Its like the 4 corners game we used to play in gym!!

[Pudge]

True polls are inaccurate but they do seem to carry some influence on stupid people want to vote for who is percieved as the winner and bullshit like that.

I guess everything does depends on who gets these hicks to the show.

[Jaggie]

Originally posted by sppunk
1. Dean
2. Kerry
3. Edwards
4. Clark
5. Sharpton

I hope you mean the general primary and not IA, because Clark isn't in the Iowa caucuses.

Unless *knock on wood* there is another terror attack, or a severe and unpredicted downfall in the economy, no Dem will beat GWB. Unfortunately for the Dems, their most popular candidate, albeit decreasingly in recent days, has the least chances of beating Bush. You know me, you know I'm a Repub and will vote for GWB, but I also know the country could do a lot worse than a Clark/Kerry, Clark/Edwards or Edwards/Kerry ticket...like say Dean as president. And Gephardt gives me the creeps big time.

[severin]

i've a general question about the whole voting, meaning the actual voting on the president after all that primaries business is over....

every state votes on it's own and then the winning party sends some guys to a sort of national voting where the president is being voted for. is it theoretically possible, that even though the republicans send a guy into that vote, that he votes democratic? meaning that evenn if bush would heave more people in there supposedly voting for him, that the democratic runner could still become president?

[BlueStar]

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

But like Samantha said, none of this really matters. Polls are a shaky method to gauge how one is going to do in a caucus, in which getting people out to other folks' houses at 6:30 at night for what could be an hours-long process is what's going to give a candidate his votes. In that respect, Dean and Gephardt have the obvious advantages, with Kerry behind them and then Edwards behind all three of them. But Edwards' support in rural Iowa and his position as many folks' second choice could propel him upward. Or Kerry's ground game could be better than expected. Or Dean could blow everyone out of the water with a slew of young voters underrepresented in the polls. Or Gephardt's union support could come out strong. There's no way of knowing, and for people to dismiss any one of the four candidates right now is, pure and simple, idiocy and ignorance.

Dean and Gephardt have the unions out there organizing for them, but the Gephardt supporters are very "soft", while the Dean supporters are "hard". The Edwards supporters are also very "hard". Kerry supporters are "soft". So, there will be a lot of pulling away from Kerry and Gephardt. And Edwards is kicking some serious ass in the rural areas.

And to hinder turnout by other supporters, Kerry and Gephardt are sending out lit pieces telling everyone that the caucus starts at 6:15pm (not 6:30pm), that everyone has to fill out several forms (even if they alaready registered to vote), and that they have to remain at the caucus site until all the precincts have reported in. All of which is completely false.

And caucuses can last for several hours, but that is because they are Democratic meetings where many many many things other than just "who do you prefer to be the Dem nominee" are discussed and voted on. At 7:00pm, the caucus-goers divide into preference groups. Once viability is determined and delegates are assigned, people are free to leave...they do not have to stick around for the other stuff...so, they could be out of there by 7:30pm (just 1 hour)...and the doors are locked and the final count is taken at 7:00pm (so that would make it just a half hour long). This year, the caucuses are starting a half hour earlier and the Iowa Democratic Party is urging every precinct to have their results called in by 7:30pm.

[BlueStar]

Originally posted by severin


every state votes on it's own and then the winning party sends some guys to a sort of national voting where the president is being voted for. is it theoretically possible, that even though the republicans send a guy into that vote, that he votes democratic? meaning that evenn if bush would heave more people in there supposedly voting for him, that the democratic runner could still become president?

Yes. The electoral college people are under no obligation to vote the same way as the general public did from whichever state they are representing. However, they always do. But, theoretically, it could happen.

[sawdust restaurants]

Originally posted by BlueStar
Yes. The electoral college people are under no obligation to vote the same way as the general public did from whichever state they are representing. However, they always do. But, theoretically, it could happen.

Actually, some Electoral College voters are bound to do so under state laws.

http://www.archives.gov/federal_regi..._2000.html#top

And on the other hand, there have been a few turncoats in recent history. In 1976, a Ford elector didn't like him and put Reagan on the ballot instead, and in 1988 I think someone put Dukakis as VP instead of president. (All this was on "Burden of Proof" on CNN the day before the last election.)

Sorry, I'm a dork.

[Pudge]

Originally posted by BlueStar


Dean and Gephardt have the unions out there organizing for them, but the Gephardt supporters are very "soft", while the Dean supporters are "hard". The Edwards supporters are also very "hard". Kerry supporters are "soft". So, there will be a lot of pulling away from Kerry and Gephardt. And Edwards is kicking some serious ass in the rural areas.

It seems that Kerry and Edwards have a lot to gain from the undecided and the "I now hate Dean" pools but from this past week it looks like many are going between the two. Therefore, I wouldn't consider Edwards supporters "hard", or at least any harder than Kerrys.