two more weeks: how will the error end?

Order 66 · 12:57 AM

!i was going to wait until the final week to make an EV predictions thread. but i'm a glutton for punishment. so feel free to laugh at how wrong i am on nov 7th (which i probably wont be wrong, but you know

***final prediction: 290 O 150 R*** with either one of CO or VA going to bams, but not both.

post your map from www.270towin.com if you can. i would but im posting from my phone or something

Nimrod's Son · 10-23-2012, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Order 66

i was going to wait until the final week to make an EV predictions thread. but i'm a glutton for punishment. so feel free to laugh at how wrong i am on nov 7th (which i probably wont be wrong, but you know

***final prediction: 290 O 150 R*** with either one of CO or VA going to bams, but not both.

post your map from raceto270.com if you can. i would but im posting from my phone or something

it's a godaddy reserved domain

Order 66 · 10-23-2012, 06:57 PM

oops i meant www.270towin.com

redbreegull · 10-23-2012, 07:59 PM

not sure, I am getting worried about a lot of the swing states though. Although Obama is ahead in all the Ohio polls, the numbers are within the margin of error. It's possible Romney could win everything

Order 66 · 10-23-2012, 08:00 PM

possible but improbable

redbreegull · 10-23-2012, 08:01 PM

I guess my prediction right now is 271 Obama to 267 Romney. I gave Obama Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and PA, but I gave Romney both CO and VA, as well as FL and NH.

duovamp · 10-23-2012, 08:01 PM

265 Obama to 273 Rmoney on a bad day.
322 Obama to 216 Rmoney on a good day.

redbreegull · 10-23-2012, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Order 66

possible but improbable

yeah I know it is really unlikely, I'm just getting jittery.

One doomsday scenario is that Obama gets Ohio but loses everything else

duovamp · 10-23-2012, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redbreegull

I guess my prediction right now is 271 Obama to 267 Romney. I gave Obama Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and PA, but I gave Romney both CO and VA, as well as FL and NH.

This seems to be the lean at the moment.

Order 66 · 10-23-2012, 08:08 PM

i think new hampshire is pretty safe obama. its about 70% obama on 538 and i think kerry won NH. so it'd be kind of silly if obama couldn't carry it as well

Order 66 · 10-23-2012, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redbreegull

yeah I know it is really unlikely, I'm just getting jittery.

One doomsday scenario is that Obama gets Ohio but loses everything else

ohio is a sort of electoral microcosm of the US as a whole. so if he wins that there's no question, its over

i think the 'romney debate surge' was a good stress test to see where ohio would go. alot of the swings like VA, NC, CO and FL went red while OH stayed remarkably blue. plus you factor in pre-debate early voting there where about 60% of early voters voted obama. its going to be a tough nut to crack for romney... though i am very wary of that much pressure being put on one state and its a scenario i was hoping to avoid. hopefully VA and/or CO will go back toward obama and let the steam out a little

redbreegull · 10-23-2012, 08:22 PM

It would be comforting if Obama got a bit of a surge from his debate performance, but Romney is back up in a bunch of the polls today

redbreegull · 10-23-2012, 08:22 PM

also Obama losing the popular vote would be really, really disheartening even if he wins

Order 66 · 10-23-2012, 08:35 PM

polling is going to be very volatile. like i said in the other thread its really only helpful to look at the aggregate at this point, which has obama at 60-80%. i think worst case scenario it'll plummet to 55% but i'm sure all kinds of whacked shit will happen in the next two weeks so theres plenty to be worried about

the chances of obama winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote is still relatively low, around 25% or something. i expect it to shoot up a little though

Future Boy · 10-24-2012, 01:02 AM

romney by 3 points

Tchocky · 10-24-2012, 03:22 PM

281 Obama, 257 Romney.

Trotskilicious · 10-24-2012, 07:28 PM

obama 99 - romney 88

Order 66 · 10-24-2012, 07:42 PM

the other 351 EVs will go to ron paul. notice how the media isn't talking about it

Trotskilicious · 10-24-2012, 07:48 PM

durant scores 38 points

MyOneAndOnly · 10-24-2012, 08:39 PM

Romney wins

America loses

killtrocity · 10-24-2012, 11:49 PM

Colbert wins, At least tonight specifically his show is full of win.

Trotskilicious · 10-25-2012, 12:12 AM

parker will score 28 with 11 assists

John Rocker · 10-25-2012, 12:50 AM

I'm pretty much expecting a landslide popular vote for Romney but then somehow they give it to Obama because he's got so much power, not unlike a dictator or Hitler. I read some books, I know what's up.

Nimrod's Son · 10-25-2012, 06:09 PM

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=SPp

MyOneAndOnly · 10-29-2012, 09:40 AM

My prediction....

Romney wins Virginia, Colorado and Florida. Obama loses the popular and electoral vote.

Dems gain in both houses of congress, but GOP remains in control in the House.

MyOneAndOnly · 10-29-2012, 09:40 AM

also, the Gallup and Rassmusen polls are a fucking mess. why do news organizations continue to quote those polls? Even Fox news dropped one of them from their index.

Order 66 · 10-29-2012, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scottytheoneand

My prediction....

Romney wins Virginia, Colorado and Florida. Obama loses the popular and electoral vote.

Dems gain in both houses of congress, but GOP remains in control in the House.

its looking like he'll get at least one of colorado or virginia. i would be fairly certain of VA if the northern probama portion wasnt getting nuked this week.

Order 66 · 10-29-2012, 10:22 AM

one week out, i'm still standing by my prediction. but obamas chances have risen slightly on 538 and princeton has him at about 300 EVs now.

the meltdowns will be spectacular. i'm seriously thinking about taking nov 7th off just to watch fox and friends

MyOneAndOnly · 10-29-2012, 01:09 PM

If O pulls it out repubs in the house are going to display a level of crazy we have never before seen.

duovamp · 10-29-2012, 02:31 PM

O never pulls it out.

10-23-2012, 06:39 PM	#1
Order 66 Socialphobic Posts: 11,883	two more weeks: how will the error end? !i was going to wait until the final week to make an EV predictions thread. but i'm a glutton for punishment. so feel free to laugh at how wrong i am on nov 7th (which i probably wont be wrong, but you know *final prediction: 290 O 150 R* with either one of CO or VA going to bams, but not both. post your map from www.270towin.com if you can. i would but im posting from my phone or something Last edited by Order 66 : 10-24-2012 at 12:57 AM.

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10-23-2012, 06:57 PM	#3
Order 66 Socialphobic Posts: 11,883	oops i meant www.270towin.com

10-23-2012, 07:59 PM	#4
redbreegull Just Hook it to My Veins! Location: WILD BOY Posts: 32,021	not sure, I am getting worried about a lot of the swing states though. Although Obama is ahead in all the Ohio polls, the numbers are within the margin of error. It's possible Romney could win everything

10-23-2012, 08:00 PM	#5
Order 66 Socialphobic Posts: 11,883	possible but improbable

10-23-2012, 08:01 PM	#6
redbreegull Just Hook it to My Veins! Location: WILD BOY Posts: 32,021	I guess my prediction right now is 271 Obama to 267 Romney. I gave Obama Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and PA, but I gave Romney both CO and VA, as well as FL and NH.

10-23-2012, 08:01 PM	#7
duovamp Brazilian Blouselord Location: heavy metal pool party Posts: 35,674	265 Obama to 273 Rmoney on a bad day. 322 Obama to 216 Rmoney on a good day.

10-23-2012, 08:08 PM	#10
Order 66 Socialphobic Posts: 11,883	i think new hampshire is pretty safe obama. its about 70% obama on 538 and i think kerry won NH. so it'd be kind of silly if obama couldn't carry it as well

10-23-2012, 08:22 PM	#12
redbreegull Just Hook it to My Veins! Location: WILD BOY Posts: 32,021	It would be comforting if Obama got a bit of a surge from his debate performance, but Romney is back up in a bunch of the polls today

10-23-2012, 08:35 PM	#14
Order 66 Socialphobic Posts: 11,883	polling is going to be very volatile. like i said in the other thread its really only helpful to look at the aggregate at this point, which has obama at 60-80%. i think worst case scenario it'll plummet to 55% but i'm sure all kinds of whacked shit will happen in the next two weeks so theres plenty to be worried about the chances of obama winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote is still relatively low, around 25% or something. i expect it to shoot up a little though

10-24-2012, 01:02 AM	#15
Future Boy The Man of Tomorrow Posts: 26,972	romney by 3 points

10-24-2012, 03:22 PM	#16
Tchocky Minion of Satan Location: Wher I en nd yu begn Posts: 6,996	281 Obama, 257 Romney.

10-24-2012, 07:28 PM	#17
Trotskilicious Banned Location: I believe in the transcendental qualities of friendship. Posts: 39,602	obama 99 - romney 88

10-24-2012, 07:42 PM	#18
Order 66 Socialphobic Posts: 11,883	the other 351 EVs will go to ron paul. notice how the media isn't talking about it

10-24-2012, 07:48 PM	#19
Trotskilicious Banned Location: I believe in the transcendental qualities of friendship. Posts: 39,602	durant scores 38 points

10-24-2012, 08:39 PM	#20
MyOneAndOnly Shut the fuck up! Location: "Okay, white power feminist" - yo soy el mejor Posts: 21,942	Romney wins America loses

10-24-2012, 11:49 PM	#21
killtrocity Saturday Night Goth Location: POLLOS Posts: 8,926	Colbert wins, At least tonight specifically his show is full of win.

10-25-2012, 12:12 AM	#22
Trotskilicious Banned Location: I believe in the transcendental qualities of friendship. Posts: 39,602	parker will score 28 with 11 assists

10-25-2012, 12:50 AM	#23
John Rocker Oblivious Virgin Location: Atlanta, Georgia Posts: 31	I'm pretty much expecting a landslide popular vote for Romney but then somehow they give it to Obama because he's got so much power, not unlike a dictator or Hitler. I read some books, I know what's up.

10-25-2012, 06:09 PM	#24
Nimrod's Son Master of Karate and Friendship Location: in your butt Posts: 72,943	http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=SPp

10-29-2012, 09:40 AM	#25
MyOneAndOnly Shut the fuck up! Location: "Okay, white power feminist" - yo soy el mejor Posts: 21,942	My prediction.... Romney wins Virginia, Colorado and Florida. Obama loses the popular and electoral vote. Dems gain in both houses of congress, but GOP remains in control in the House.

10-29-2012, 10:22 AM	#28
Order 66 Socialphobic Posts: 11,883	one week out, i'm still standing by my prediction. but obamas chances have risen slightly on 538 and princeton has him at about 300 EVs now. the meltdowns will be spectacular. i'm seriously thinking about taking nov 7th off just to watch fox and friends

10-29-2012, 01:09 PM	#29
MyOneAndOnly Shut the fuck up! Location: "Okay, white power feminist" - yo soy el mejor Posts: 21,942	If O pulls it out repubs in the house are going to display a level of crazy we have never before seen.

10-29-2012, 02:31 PM	#30
duovamp Brazilian Blouselord Location: heavy metal pool party Posts: 35,674	O never pulls it out.