Will Obama be a one-term President?

[Gish08]

Well?

[redbreegull]

He does have serious problems leading his party but I voted too early to tell.

[D.]

i'm surprised i haven't seen "obomba" before this thread.

[AndySlash]

it's too early, really, but i don't think it's looking promising to get re-elected.

[Eulogy]

It doesn't look promising right now, but take time and add it to the ineptitude of all potential Republican candidates and I honestly believe he will win again.

Then maybe he'll stop being a pussy. Sorry I mean "pragmatic."

[Gish08]

Obama's been pretty inept the past 6-8 months himself. His brilliant communications machine bit the dust quite some time ago. He looks like an idiot.

[Gish08]

What the hell is this guy gonna say at his state of the union?

"We added more troops to Afghanistan, costing us more blood and treasure.

We came close to health care reform 6 months in a row yet failed to act, but seriously, America -- we are getting there and I won't back down! I promise!"

Besides the stimulus (which is not that popular), that is the entire first year of Obama's Presidency.

[Eulogy]

Originally Posted by Gish08

What the hell is this guy gonna say at his state of the union?

"We added more troops to Afghanistan, costing us more blood and treasure.

We came close to health care reform 6 months in a row yet failed to act, but seriously, America -- we are getting there and I won't back down! I promise!"

Besides the stimulus (which is not that popular), that is the entire first year of Obama's Presidency.

Besides the most important piece of legislation that brought the economy back from the brink of disaster (i don't want to debate that but it can easily be framed that way).... it's all in how it's framed. and you realize that the 2012 elections are almost three years away, right? the correct answer is that it's too early to tell. because it is.

[JokeyLoki]

I think he'll be re-elected.

Either things will get better, and he'll take credit for it, or things will get worse, but the Republicans will find some way to fuck it up.

[Order 66]

he's on the same "algorithm" as Reagan was into his first year, so if you believe history repeats itself that's a good thing. But last week proves that anything can happen

And is it smart political strategy to shout down everything obama does? It is if you want to win seats in 2010 but that populist outrage isn't always going to be there, just like how dems can no longer just blame bush to win elections

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Gish08

What the hell is this guy gonna say at his state of the union?

"We added more troops to Afghanistan, costing us more blood and treasure.

We came close to health care reform 6 months in a row yet failed to act, but seriously, America -- we are getting there and I won't back down! I promise!"

Besides the stimulus (which is not that popular), that is the entire first year of Obama's Presidency.

No, he also banned flavored cigarettes, except those flavors made by Phillip Morris.

[ravenguy2000]

Originally Posted by Gish08

Besides the stimulus (which is not that popular), that is the entire first year of Obama's Presidency.

Actually, Obama has seen more legislation passed in his first year than any other president since Franklin Roosevelt. One could argue the merits of the bills themselves in Obama's agenda, but the amount of sweeping changes he's brought about in just his first year in office is pretty staggering.

[Future Boy]

Originally Posted by Order 66

And is it smart political strategy to shout down everything obama does? It is if you want to win seats in 2010 but that populist outrage isn't always going to be there, just like how dems can no longer just blame bush to win elections

what.

Seriously, wanting Dems to stand by party principles is a bad thing? Yeah, lets just keep taking the base for granted, and keep telling them to stfu too, that's the ticket.

[Future Boy]

Its too early. Im with Eulogy, and I said it before. I'd like to see him without another campaign in his future, and if the economy turns around he deserves a chance. But if he keeps up this appeasing stuff then I just want him to crash and burn.

[Ugly]

Jesus Christ himself would have a hard time himself getting a second term in this economy. It was going to be a pretty shitty result for whoever won in 2008.

Also: there's always constant media rumblings about Palin in 2012 (flick on CNN whenever they talk about Palin and someone will always have a throwaway reference to a hypothetical 2012 presidential run) so who knows if she'd actually give him a race. Assuming all the aforementioned rumblings aren't just talking-head media-generated bullshit.

[Order 66]

Originally Posted by Future Boy

what.

Seriously, wanting Dems to stand by party principles is a bad thing? Yeah, lets just keep taking the base for granted, and keep telling them to stfu too, that's the ticket.

No I was referring to the GOP. They have a very poor long term strategy

[Future Boy]

oh. I agree with that then. They dont really need one though.

[Toast]

He's going to be a one term president, and he is going to suffer a massive defeat if he runs again.

[Order 66]

oh. Well that settles it then

[Gish08]

Originally Posted by Toast

He's going to be a one term president, and he is going to suffer a massive defeat if he runs again.

Who is gonna challenge him from within the Democratic party? Come on - there's no one.

[28if]

i think he'll pull through. the republicans are going to shout themselves out, the economy is going to settle down, and he'll run another brilliant campaign against some shithead.

[Gish08]

The problem is, Republicans will turn him into a lame duck, especially if they win big in the fall. But, hell, it's already starting to happen no.w

[Order 66]

uhh they can retake the house and senate and there's still a rough 50/50 chance he'll get reelected. You know Clinton had to make do with losing congress too don't you

[Order 66]

I really don't mean to be a dick but if you're doing post mortem on any office holder this early in you're a moron. Reading this thread you'd think John Edwards is president

[Gish08]

Originally Posted by Order 66

uhh they can retake the house and senate and there's still a rough 50/50 chance he'll get reelected. You know Clinton had to make do with losing congress too don't you

And yet even the "Republican Revolution" was not nearly as partisan as a repeat of that would now be.

If GOPers take back Congress, that is, both the House and Senate, they'll have no problems running Obama's agenda into the ground, spinning the shit out of every move he makes until he looks like a lame duck in 2012. You think there's gridlock now...

[Order 66]

There's a reason why obama tried to do "everything at once" as pundits are wont to criticize him. Its because the white house knew due to historical trends that the midterms wouldn't go too well. So as bad as things are everything is going according to plan still

But yeah I don't argue losing congress would be devestating. but I think the white house maneuvered itself to where 2010 won't be the end all be all. most reforms will be in the pipeline by this November

[ryan patrick]

the default position should be that he will probably get re-elected until there is a reason to believe otherwise, but we haven't even gotten to the 2010 midterms.

[Future Boy]

Odds in his favor even if he loses congress. Big bad congress failed not him. Or thats how the story goes anyway.

[Order 66]

Also, incumbents are generally harder to run against. Its sort of a bad example because it opens up a whole nother can of worms (political implications of 9/11, john Kerry as a candidate) but in November 04 bushs poll numbers weren't much higher than obamas current numbers

[28if]

Originally Posted by Eulogy

It doesn't look promising right now, but take time and add it to the ineptitude of all potential Republican candidates and I honestly believe he will win again.

Then maybe he'll stop being a pussy. Sorry I mean "pragmatic."

Man Obama has always been pragmatic, i don't know why it is coming as a big shock to people now.