2008 Battleground States...who will win them and why?

Tchocky · 01:40 AM

http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-...8060800566.gif

My predictions:

Colorado goes to Obama.
Florida goes to McCain.
Iowa goes to Obama.
Michigan goes to Obama.
Minnesota goes to Obama.
Missouri goes to McCain.
Nevada goes to McCain.
New Hampshire goes to Obama.
New Jersey goes to Obama.
New Mexico goes to Obama.
North Carolina goes to McCain.
Ohio goes to McCain.
Oregon goes to Obama.
Pennsylvania goes to Obama.
Virginia goes to Obama.
Wisconsin goes to Obama.

Obama wins the election with 286 electoral votes to McCain's 252, assuming the predicted red and blue states fall into place.

Tchocky · 09-01-2008, 01:08 AM

Quick election factoids: Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to carry Texas (1976). George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to carry California (1988).

Barring some unforeseen cataclysmic political shift, I doubt I'll see a Republican winning California again or a Democrat winning Texas again in a presidential election in my lifetime.

redbreegull · 09-01-2008, 01:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Iowa goes to Obama.
New Mexico goes to Obama.
Virginia goes to Obama.

I'm not sure about these states. I'm worried. I don't know a lot about the first two, but Virginia is pretty entrenched.

Tchocky · 09-01-2008, 01:18 AM

Iowa seems to be trending pretty blue. I'm thinking the fact that Richardson endorsed Obama almost from the get-go will be enough to nudge Obama over the top. Virginia hasn't been blue since '64, but certain circumstances in that state have made me think that this is the year they finally go against that trend.

redbreegull · 09-01-2008, 01:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Iowa seems to be trending pretty blue. I'm thinking the fact that Richardson endorsed Obama almost from the get-go will be enough to nudge Obama over the top. Virginia hasn't been blue since '64, but certain circumstances in that state have made me think that this is the year they finally go against that trend.

I got pretty excited when the dems owned the state election in 06... but it was close iirc, and a lot of people who vote in the presidential don't vote in state... so really, it all comes down to Obama's ability to make people come out and vote. Which he is good at. So I will cross my fingers.

Travis Meeks · 09-01-2008, 08:47 AM

New Jersey is far from a battleground state

sppunk · 09-01-2008, 11:16 AM

Obama wins Pennsylvania, simply because the Philly region will give him a massive voting edge.

Andrew_Pakula · 09-01-2008, 11:21 AM

As for electoral voting this is probably the best site to keep track of it:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

dudehitscar · 09-01-2008, 12:00 PM

ask me again after the debates.

beef curtains · 09-01-2008, 12:49 PM

LOL how is Oregon a battleground state?

bardy · 09-01-2008, 01:06 PM

I don't think Virginia is as republican as a lot of the other red states... just my observation. I mean the majority of the population is along the coast or near DC... and are probably republican for fiscal reasons rather than moral ones. Just my guess. The southwestern portion of the state is very southern baptist but it represents a small portion of the population. I recall on the last election the county that Virginia Tech is in was the only democratic one on the western half of the state..

ryan patrick · 09-01-2008, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Colorado goes to Obama.
Florida goes to McCain.
Iowa goes to Obama.
Michigan goes to Obama.
Minnesota goes to Obama.
Missouri goes to McCain.
Nevada goes to McCain.
New Hampshire goes to Obama.
New Jersey goes to Obama.
New Mexico goes to Obama.
North Carolina goes to McCain.
Ohio goes to McCain.
Oregon goes to Obama.
Pennsylvania goes to Obama.
Virginia goes to Obama.
Wisconsin goes to Obama.

Obama wins the election with 286 electoral votes to McCain's 252, assuming the predicted red and blue states fall into place.

this is about what i would expect in the current conditions as well.

WI, MN, NJ, OR, NM, and IA are in Obama's corner pretty solidly, and MI is closer but a hard win for McCain.

MO is solidly McCain and NC is closer but probably hard to win for Obama.

i would give NH to Obama so he only has to win VA, CO, or OH to win. and i think CO > VA > OH for his possible margin of victories there. OH is unpredictable, he's been from up 8 to down 10 in polling there in the last two months. i'd rather bank on the turnout machine he has built in VA.

FL and NV are pretty close, i think McCain will win FL and Obama might win NV.

if i give Obama CO, VA, NV, then it's 291 to 247.

ryan patrick · 09-01-2008, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redbreegull

I'm not sure about these states. I'm worried. I don't know a lot about the first two, but Virginia is pretty entrenched.

Obama has a natural base in Iowa from the caucuses and McCain didn't bother to compete there because he had no chance. Obama is pro-farm subsidies and McCain isn't, among other things.

NM is fairly favorable territory, it's going to elect a Dem senator this cycle and the latino population is breaking around 70/30 to Obama.

VA is extremely close, but is about to elect its second Dem senator, has a Dem governor, so it will come down to turnout likely barring a shift in the state of the race. Obama has a huge ground operation in this state.

Tchocky · 09-01-2008, 01:39 PM

It will all come down to who will win Virginia and Colorado. Despite the fact that I gave those two states to Obama, they could easily go either way. If Obama can win only one of those states, he should be able to win the election. If McCain wins both, which could easily happen, the election is his. Putting Palin on the ticket probably helped McCain's chances in Colorado...Virginia is probably more winnable for Obama at this point.

Gish08 · 09-01-2008, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew_Pakula

As for electoral voting this is probably the best site to keep track of it:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Allow me to introduce you to www.fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral-vote is old news.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sppunk

Obama wins Pennsylvania, simply because the Philly region will give him a massive voting edge.

I'm worried about western PA, though. Allegheny County's Democratic vote is dominated by white catholics, and most of them supported either Hillary or McCain during primaries. LOTS of racists here, regardless of party, as well. He needs Allegheny, Beaver, Fayette, etc. or he will lose the state. Basically western PA and Philly are key. Erie doesn't hurt, either.

Thanks to Biden, I think Obama will have no problem winning the Scranton area (Lackawanna County); beforehand, I wasn't so sure.

Gish08 · 09-01-2008, 02:58 PM

http://i34.tinypic.com/14e9lll.png

This seriously could happen, guys. Nevada seems the most likely of the three western states to not go for Obama. McCain is very popular in NH.

Nancy Pelosi would have to break the tie. Hehe.

sppunk · 09-01-2008, 02:59 PM

Western PA will definitely go McCain, but the sheer volume of Philadelphia County voters (remember, in the primaries more people voted than live in the county!) will trump the western vote. Dauphin County will go heaaaaaaaavy Obama, too.

bardy · 09-01-2008, 03:11 PM

I hope all the black people in SC and GA show up and vote for obama....

Andrew_Pakula · 09-01-2008, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gish08

Allow me to introduce you to www.fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral-vote is old news.

wow thanks for that

Travis Meeks · 09-01-2008, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bardy

I hope all the black people in SC and GA show up and vote for obama....

Obama should be organizing an epic push to get them all registered and to the polls. GA should be Obama this year but it won't happen

killtrocity · 09-01-2008, 10:17 PM

No fucking way is Minnesota going red. No fucking way.

The literacy rate is much too high.

killtrocity · 09-01-2008, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Meeks

New Jersey is far from a battleground state

This too.

Tchocky · 09-03-2008, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sppunk

Western PA will definitely go McCain, but the sheer volume of Philadelphia County voters (remember, in the primaries more people voted than live in the county!) will trump the western vote. Dauphin County will go heaaaaaaaavy Obama, too.

Since 1992, Michigan has gone blue for similar reasons...namely the fact that Detroit's voting power has pretty much cancelled out the rest of the state, which mostly tends to vote Republican. Detroit's population is rapidly shrinking, however, and many people in this state are unhappy with Jennifer Granholm as governor...had McCain placed Romney on his ticket, Michigan would be his state to lose. At this point, I still think Michigan will go to Obama (again due to the influence of Detroit), but it'll be extremely close.

Gish08 · 09-03-2008, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sppunk

Western PA will definitely go McCain, but the sheer volume of Philadelphia County voters (remember, in the primaries more people voted than live in the county!) will trump the western vote. Dauphin County will go heaaaaaaaavy Obama, too.

You think that'll be enough, though?

I'm pretty confident any Democrat NEEDS Western PA (specifically, Allegheny) to win PA in a Presidential election...

sppunk · 09-03-2008, 06:11 PM

Why? The population in western PA is drastically shrinking as the population in the SE corridor swells.

And, to win PA you only need to win the SE corridor - ask Lynn Swann.

Caine Walker · 09-03-2008, 06:22 PM

western PA sucks anyway.

null123 · 09-03-2008, 06:57 PM

Oregon is not a battleground state.

redbreegull · 09-22-2008, 12:59 PM

I'd like to infuse a little bit of panic here. If Obama and McCain do tie at 269, Pelosi does not vote to break the tie. The entire House votes, by state. So McCain would win because there are more red states.

Caine Walker · 09-22-2008, 02:25 PM

ah ain't scurr3d.

09-01-2008, 01:08 AM	#2
Tchocky Minion of Satan Location: Wher I en nd yu begn Posts: 6,996	Quick election factoids: Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to carry Texas (1976). George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to carry California (1988). Barring some unforeseen cataclysmic political shift, I doubt I'll see a Republican winning California again or a Democrat winning Texas again in a presidential election in my lifetime.

09-01-2008, 01:18 AM	#4
Tchocky Minion of Satan Location: Wher I en nd yu begn Posts: 6,996	Iowa seems to be trending pretty blue. I'm thinking the fact that Richardson endorsed Obama almost from the get-go will be enough to nudge Obama over the top. Virginia hasn't been blue since '64, but certain circumstances in that state have made me think that this is the year they finally go against that trend.

09-01-2008, 08:47 AM	#6
Travis Meeks Rambling on Posts: 20,548	New Jersey is far from a battleground state

09-01-2008, 11:16 AM	#7
sppunk Netphoria's George Will Location: Fenway Park Posts: 37,125	Obama wins Pennsylvania, simply because the Philly region will give him a massive voting edge.

09-01-2008, 11:21 AM	#8
Andrew_Pakula Fine! I'll go make my own web site. With Blackjack, and Hookers... Actually, forget the web site. Location: Toronto, Canada Posts: 3,809	As for electoral voting this is probably the best site to keep track of it: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

09-01-2008, 12:00 PM	#9
dudehitscar Apocalyptic Poster Posts: 2,652	ask me again after the debates.

09-01-2008, 12:49 PM	#10
beef curtains Immortal Location: I like me so much better when you're naked Posts: 21,752	LOL how is Oregon a battleground state?

09-01-2008, 01:06 PM	#11
bardy Immortal Location: helllllloooooo!! Posts: 20,831	I don't think Virginia is as republican as a lot of the other red states... just my observation. I mean the majority of the population is along the coast or near DC... and are probably republican for fiscal reasons rather than moral ones. Just my guess. The southwestern portion of the state is very southern baptist but it represents a small portion of the population. I recall on the last election the county that Virginia Tech is in was the only democratic one on the western half of the state..

09-01-2008, 01:39 PM	#14
Tchocky Minion of Satan Location: Wher I en nd yu begn Posts: 6,996	It will all come down to who will win Virginia and Colorado. Despite the fact that I gave those two states to Obama, they could easily go either way. If Obama can win only one of those states, he should be able to win the election. If McCain wins both, which could easily happen, the election is his. Putting Palin on the ticket probably helped McCain's chances in Colorado...Virginia is probably more winnable for Obama at this point.

09-01-2008, 02:58 PM	#16
Gish08 Apocalyptic Poster Posts: 2,560	http://i34.tinypic.com/14e9lll.png This seriously could happen, guys. Nevada seems the most likely of the three western states to not go for Obama. McCain is very popular in NH. Nancy Pelosi would have to break the tie. Hehe.

09-01-2008, 02:59 PM	#17
sppunk Netphoria's George Will Location: Fenway Park Posts: 37,125	Western PA will definitely go McCain, but the sheer volume of Philadelphia County voters (remember, in the primaries more people voted than live in the county!) will trump the western vote. Dauphin County will go heaaaaaaaavy Obama, too.

09-01-2008, 03:11 PM	#18
bardy Immortal Location: helllllloooooo!! Posts: 20,831	I hope all the black people in SC and GA show up and vote for obama....

09-01-2008, 10:17 PM	#21
killtrocity Saturday Night Goth Location: POLLOS Posts: 8,926	No fucking way is Minnesota going red. No fucking way. The literacy rate is much too high.

09-03-2008, 06:11 PM	#25
sppunk Netphoria's George Will Location: Fenway Park Posts: 37,125	Why? The population in western PA is drastically shrinking as the population in the SE corridor swells. And, to win PA you only need to win the SE corridor - ask Lynn Swann.

09-03-2008, 06:22 PM	#26
Caine Walker Braindead Posts: 15,479	western PA sucks anyway.

09-03-2008, 06:57 PM	#27
null123 Minion of Satan Location: bye Posts: 7,274	Oregon is not a battleground state.

09-22-2008, 12:59 PM	#28
redbreegull Just Hook it to My Veins! Location: WILD BOY Posts: 32,021	I'd like to infuse a little bit of panic here. If Obama and McCain do tie at 269, Pelosi does not vote to break the tie. The entire House votes, by state. So McCain would win because there are more red states.

09-22-2008, 02:25 PM	#29
Caine Walker Braindead Posts: 15,479	ah ain't scurr3d.