Hillary is going down?

[Future Boy]

3 Texas polls were released, thats the only one that shows him ahead, the other two are Hillary 49% to Obama 41% and the Rasmussen one mentioned has it Hillary 54%-38%.


and according to this: http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...ints_in_te.php that pollster kinda sucks, but doesnt say why.

[Gish08]

http://i27.tinypic.com/m94uxj.jpg

[ryan patrick]

wow those polls are fucking erratic. if you average them out you end up with hillary at 48%, obama at 40%, but i'm not sure these polls were really helpful at all. the one with obama up says that democrats support clinton a bit more than obama 47-42, but obama is killing her among independents who will likely vote in the primary by 71-24. what's strange is that the pollster who has obama up on clinton has similar results to the other two pollsters in the republican field. who knows what's going on in texas. my feeling is still that obama is going to end up with a majority of delegates there even if clinton edges him out in the popular vote.

let's see. the texas credit union league poll has 35% definitely clinton to 29% definitely obama and the rest are probably/maybe/undecided. hmm.

[Gish08]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...es-782564.html

Worried Clinton vows to claim 'phantom' delegates

Friday, 15 February 2008

The Hillary Clinton campaign has served notice that it expects to claim delegates theoretically garnered in primary votes in Michigan and Florida even though the contests in both states were declared void by the Democratic leadership long before they were held.

The highly controversial gambit reflects growing concern in the Clinton camp that her rival for the nomination, Barack Obama, may be pulling far enough ahead to be beyond her reach. Yesterday, David Plouffe, Mr Obama's campaign manager, said it had become "highly unlikely" that Mrs Clinton could now prevail.

But reclaiming the "phantom" delegates from Michigan and Florida could potentially tilt the race back in her favour. Last September, both candidates pledged not to campaign in either state after they defied party rules by leapfrogging their primary votes into January.

Democrat voters went to the polls in both states anyway, in very large numbers in Florida especially, where Mrs Clinton won by a 50 per cent to 33 per cent margin. In Michigan, she also came out on top, but was the only candidate with her name on the ballot. The other choice was "uncommitted".

Since the coast-to-coast contests of Super Tuesday on 5 February, Mr Obama has won eight states to Mrs Clinton's zero. According to latest estimates, he now has about 50 more delegates than her bound for the party's August convention in Denver, if you ******* so-called "super-delegates" – members of Congress, governors and party grandees – who have so far endorsed him.

Mr Obama is expected to win votes next Tuesday in Hawaii (where he was partly raised) and Wisconsin. On 4 March come two key states, Texas and Ohio, which have become Mrs Clinton's firewall against final disaster. A Quinnipiac University poll last night showed her still retaining double-digit leads in the two states. Mrs Clinton campaigned in Ohio yesterday.

There remains the strong risk, indeed, that come the summer convention, neither candidate will have assembled the necessary 2,025 delegates to claim the nomination. Hence the furious lobbying of the nearly 800 super-delegates headed to the convention.

But now Florida and Michigan become crucial. The national party continues to insist that no delegates from either state will be welcome in Denver. Keeping them out of the hall will project an image of party division, however. Democrats in both states say they are being unfairly disenfranchised.

"We believe those should be counted at the convention," Mrs Clinton's field director, Guy Cecil, said in a conference call with reporters. "The issue of the votes in Florida and Michigan – that has to be resolved." This is a clear reversal of positions Mrs Clinton took earlier and the Obama team is crying foul.

"Now, when they believe it serves their political interests, they're trying to rewrite the rules," said Mr Plouffe. "Now, at the 11th hour, the Clinton campaign is trying to rewrite rules that were firmly established, and I don't think there's a lot of appetite for that."

In fact, it is an argument that is already splitting the party. Julian Bond, the leader of the National Association for the Advancement of Coloured People (NAACP), told the Democrat Party chairman Howard Dean that ignoring Florida's votes would be reminiscent of the "sordid history of racially discriminatory primaries" in the state.

But Al Sharpton, a former presidential candidate, wrote to Mr Dean saying that changing the rules of the game now would constitute a "grave injustice".

Ultimately, the decision on whether or not to seat the delegates from the two states will rest not with Mr Dean, but with the party's convention credentialing committee. Its members will only be spared an agonising decision if one of the candidates manages in the final stages of the primary-caucus season decisively to break free. If Mr Obama's winning streak continues, then the arguments over Florida and Michigan could become moot.

Michigan and Florida: a mighty mess

Is Hillary Clinton right to lay claim to the Michigan and Florida delegates?

She is on extremely thin ice. In Michigan, Mr Obama was not on the ballot. Speaking last October about Michigan, Mrs Clinton said: "It's clear, this election that they're having is not going to count for anything". Has she forgotten?

How many delegates are we talking about?

Based on Mrs Clinton's winning margins, she could theoretically be entitled to 73 delegates from Michigan and an additional 105 from Florida. Mr Obama could claim 67 from Florida, but in Michigan 55 delegates would be awarded to the "uncommitted" vote. (Remember John Edwards was still around back then.) It is possible that Mrs Clinton could gain a net 100 delegates. In this race, that's huge.

What will the Democrats do?

The party desperately wants to avoid a scene in Denver with delegates from Florida and Michigan locked out. But it can't easily back down, particularly if to do so ends up making all the difference in favour of Mrs Clinton. Some party officials are discussing asking both states to start all over again with party caucuses. Yes, it's a mighty mess.

So basically after saying that these "phantom" delegates were worthless not too long ago, she's now completely changed her mind.

[Future Boy]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

wow those polls are fucking erratic. if you average them out you end up with hillary at 48%, obama at 40%, but i'm not sure these polls were really helpful at all. the one with obama up says that democrats support clinton a bit more than obama 47-42, but obama is killing her among independents who will likely vote in the primary by 71-24. what's strange is that the pollster who has obama up on clinton has similar results to the other two pollsters in the republican field. who knows what's going on in texas. my feeling is still that obama is going to end up with a majority of delegates there even if clinton edges him out in the popular vote.

let's see. the texas credit union league poll has 35% definitely clinton to 29% definitely obama and the rest are probably/maybe/undecided. hmm.

Its not a good idea to compare poll to poll, the methodology could be really different. Compare them to themselves overtime, or a general trend in a direction is really the only way to look at them. Also, unless Im mistaken, Hillary keeps winning the voters who make up their mind in the day or so before the vote, (even in virginia) although the number of people weak on Obama has dropped, i think.

Originally Posted by Gish08

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...es-782564.html



So basically after saying that these "phantom" delegates were worthless not too long ago, she's now completely changed her mind.

Is there any doubt Obama would be trying the same if the role was reversed?

Wait, I forgot how genuine and honest Obama is, my fault.

[Nimrod's Son]

ignore the polls people

[mayday]

lol

[mayday]

Hillary is not as well liked as Obama so I'd say she's not going to beat him.

but i think it will be close..

[Future Boy]

Yeah the party that got screwed in 2000 when people went for flash instead of substance seems to be going that route on its own.

[dudehitscar]

Originally Posted by Future Boy

Yeah the party that got screwed in 2000 when people went for flash instead of substance seems to be going that route on its own.

so many silly ideas in one sentence. I know I say this a lot but you are a young one aren't you.

[Future Boy]

If you disagree with that I honestly have to doubt your ability to judge things. (Bush won cause he was viewed as more likeable, and thats the only reason Obama is winning now)

Although this was his most substantive speech, and it was fairly boring, so he really needs to stick to hope/change and maybe that'll do it.

[TuralyonW3]

if it comes down to the superdelegates and hilary wins, McCain will win. The Obama dems will be so pissed off.

[Nate the Grate]

edit: nevermind

[Tchocky]

March 4 will be the first primary since Super Tuesday that really matters. I still think that Obama will get beat in both Texas and Ohio when it's all said and done...it'll be up to him to soften the blow of the defeat to keep up his national perception as the front-runner.

[ryan patrick]

first primary that matters since super tuesday huh. how about the ones that took him from behind in delegates to up by 150? the momentum is undeniable after wisconsin, where he gave hillary an even bigger pounding than i expected across demographic lines. her support is wavering big time, and it looks like her negative campaigning isn't doing much good.

barring some major shake-up event... and two weeks IS a long time for things to change... i think at this point obama will win texas and quite possibly ohio, though it will be the tougher one.

[ryan patrick]

you are right in that what happens march 4 has the possibility to wrap this up. if obama can squeeze out victories in just 3 of the 4 states, the superdelegates fall in line and it's over.

and obama is polling close to even in texas now, with plenty of time to continue shoring up support.

[Future Boy]

Those neg ads were pretty weak to be honest. Im not sure she can afford to go as negative as it will take to win. Unfortunately McCain wont have that problem, and St. Obama is essentially tying his owns hands with this change shtick.

[The Melty Man]

Can't wait for Obama to get the nomination and watch the 527 groups destroy him. They managed to bring down "war hero" Kerry, just imagine what they'll do to bleeding heart lefty "Chicago socialist" Obama....

Speaking of which, that sounds like a good new title for a Smashing Pumpkins album.

Oh yeah and if bØlly endorses Obama I will burn all my Pumpkins CDs and throw eggs at him when I see him play in a month and a half.

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

first primary that matters since super tuesday huh. how about the ones that took him from behind in delegates to up by 150? the momentum is undeniable after wisconsin, where he gave hillary an even bigger pounding than i expected across demographic lines. her support is wavering big time, and it looks like her negative campaigning isn't doing much good.

barring some major shake-up event... and two weeks IS a long time for things to change... i think at this point obama will win texas and quite possibly ohio, though it will be the tougher one.

150 delegates is not that many when you consider how many are at stake on March 4. There are enough delegates in those two states to serve as a game changer, one way or the other. As for the polls, I'll believe it when I see it in a couple weeks. Didn't the polls say the two were almost even in Cali leading up to Super Tuesday and Hillary wound up beating Obama comfortably there? And depending on comfortably she wins, momentum could easily swing back her way.

And Melty Man, Obama is leaps and bounds better than Kerry as a candidate. And this time around the Republicans won't have gay marriage to get the social conservatives to come to the polls and bail the Republican candidate out, for starters. In fact, McCain better have a social conservative as his running mate, because right now he can forget about the Bible Belt vote.

[Tchocky]

You will probably like this, ryan patrick. From www.msnbc.com:

...After last night’s contests, here’s where things stand: The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,018. There are 53 delegates unallocated, including 19 in MD, 10 each in CO and GA, 6 in WI, 4 in HI, and one each in DC, TN, NY and IL. We estimate a conservative 27-26 split here. The Superdelegate Count: Clinton 257 versus Obama 185. That’s a grand total of: Obama 1,355, Clinton 1,276. Counting only the superdelegates he has now, plus his pledged delegates, Obama needs 65% of remaining PLEDGED delegates to hit the magic 2025 number. Reaching that is probably unrealistic, but when you add in the unaffiliated 353 superdelegates (76 of whom are not yet known yet and won't be appointed until April, May and June), his magic percentage number is down to 48%. On the flip side, Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% -- SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK...

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

150 delegates is not that many when you consider how many are at stake on March 4. There are enough delegates in those two states to serve as a game changer, one way or the other. As for the polls, I'll believe it when I see it in a couple weeks. Didn't the polls say the two were almost even in Cali leading up to Super Tuesday and Hillary wound up beating Obama comfortably there? And depending on comfortably she wins, momentum could easily swing back her way.

And Melty Man, Obama is leaps and bounds better than Kerry as a candidate. And this time around the Republicans won't have gay marriage to get the social conservatives to come to the polls and bail the Republican candidate out, for starters. In fact, McCain better have a social conservative as his running mate, because right now he can forget about the Bible Belt vote.

in the context of proportional distribution of delegates, 150 is a good sized lead. it's not impossible for clinton to pull this out still, but i'd say it's pretty grim. probably 75/25 against her coming out ahead on march 4.

in california the polling was pretty all over the place, it's true, though more had clinton up than obama. clinton was probably helped out by absentee votes but obama was starting to close the gap near the end, he just didn't have enough time to sell his message and people still had doubts. the playing field going into march 4 is very different... fewer states to focus on and more time. we'll see.

and obama has plenty of time for conservative interest groups to break down his support, but going into the contest he's in amazingly good position. against mccain, it's his race to lose, he could easily pull a 50+ electoral college victory if the vote were tomorrow. he is beating mccain by 5 to 10 points in polls in states where clinton loses by 2 to 4. and clinton loses to mccain in polling in states that even kerry won, like minnesota, pennsylvania, oregon.

there's plenty of time for the republican machine to tarnish obama's image, but i just don't think that the conservative base will get behind mccain like they did bush, and the issues just aren't there this year.

[Corganist]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

and obama has plenty of time for conservative interest groups to break down his support, but going into the contest he's in amazingly good position. against mccain, it's his race to lose, he could easily pull a 50+ electoral college victory if the vote were tomorrow. he is beating mccain by 5 to 10 points in polls in states where clinton loses by 2 to 4. and clinton loses to mccain in polling in states that even kerry won, like minnesota, pennsylvania, oregon.

there's plenty of time for the republican machine to tarnish obama's image, but i just don't think that the conservative base will get behind mccain like they did bush, and the issues just aren't there this year.

I think that if you're strictly talking about the here and now, then you'd be right. But I don't think Obama will fare nearly as well against McCain as he is today after 6 months of campaigning. The thing about John McCain is that we've generally heard just about every bad thing about him or his policies that can be said. There's really not a lot that can be said during the campaign about McCain that will really garner much media attention. Obama, on the other hand, is still pretty much an unknown quantity, so when he slips up in the campaign (and he will, especially once he has to abandon the "hope and change" crutch and actually say something), it's going to be big news that people will pay a lot of attention to.

McCain can only get more support from the GOP base once he secures the nomination and time goes on. Right now, his support from the party is as low as it'll ever be, but that'll improve drastically over the next few months as Republicans come to the realization that holding their noses and supporting McCain beats the alternative. On the other hand, Obama has a lot to lose once he gains the nomination. Let's face it, the excitement he's garnering now is because he has "momentum," which might be enough to carry him to the nomination. But once the nomination is decided and there's no more primaries to win, that momentum is going to be gone and Obama is going to have to find other ways to keep people excited until November. I really don't think Obama can afford the slightest slip-up, whereas perhaps McCain can.

[sppunk]

One thing's for sure: McCain will rape Obama in the most vile fashion possible whenever they have debates.

[zbeast78]

nah... Obama can just keep pulling the "old dude" trump card; like Clinton did in '96. McCain's only chance is if Hillz somehow storms back to tie the game, then sues for Michigan and Florida (and gets the nod)

[Corganist]

Originally Posted by zbeast78

nah... Obama can just keep pulling the "old dude" trump card; like Clinton did in '96. McCain's only chance is if Hillz somehow storms back to tie the game, then sues for Michigan and Florida (and gets the nod)

Clinton could get away with bringing up age against Dole because he was the incumbent. If Obama pulled that card on McCain it'd likely blow up in his face. Obama would not be well advised to make age (which ties directly to experience) an issue.

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by Corganist

I think that if you're strictly talking about the here and now, then you'd be right. But I don't think Obama will fare nearly as well against McCain as he is today after 6 months of campaigning. The thing about John McCain is that we've generally heard just about every bad thing about him or his policies that can be said. There's really not a lot that can be said during the campaign about McCain that will really garner much media attention. Obama, on the other hand, is still pretty much an unknown quantity, so when he slips up in the campaign (and he will, especially once he has to abandon the "hope and change" crutch and actually say something), it's going to be big news that people will pay a lot of attention to.

McCain can only get more support from the GOP base once he secures the nomination and time goes on. Right now, his support from the party is as low as it'll ever be, but that'll improve drastically over the next few months as Republicans come to the realization that holding their noses and supporting McCain beats the alternative. On the other hand, Obama has a lot to lose once he gains the nomination. Let's face it, the excitement he's garnering now is because he has "momentum," which might be enough to carry him to the nomination. But once the nomination is decided and there's no more primaries to win, that momentum is going to be gone and Obama is going to have to find other ways to keep people excited until November. I really don't think Obama can afford the slightest slip-up, whereas perhaps McCain can.

I agree with most of this, but I'm still not sold on the belief that the Republican machine will handle Obama easier than it would Hillary. The fact that Obama is an unknown commodity will hinder the Repubs. I do agree however that it will likely become easier for the Republicans to hammer Obama once the campaign gets into full gear, but let's face it, if Hillary was the Democratic nominee it can be safe to assume that the Republican machine can hammer her with ease, because they've been hammering the name Clinton for over a decade.

I would not underestimate, however, the lack of support McCain has from the hardliner conservatives and the Bible Belters. People can go on and on about how McCain can handle Obama in a debate and whatever else, but when all is said and done, Obama will likely have more backing from the core of his own party than McCain will. Unless McCain picks a running mate that greatly appeals to both the social conservatives and the political neo-cons, there's going to be trouble ahead. Without the majority of support from the extreme social and political right, McCain is going to have to rely on the centrists, who are just as likely to vote for Obama as they are him.

[JokeyLoki]

Originally Posted by sppunk

One thing's for sure: McCain will rape Obama in the most vile fashion possible whenever they have debates.

I can't wait for that. Obama reads speeches very well, but he's not so good off the cuff.

[TuralyonW3]

Originally Posted by sppunk

One thing's for sure: McCain will rape Obama in the most vile fashion possible whenever they have debates.

Obama will have just as much ammo against McCain. McCain doesn't distance himself from Bush, and often embraces him. Bush has a 19% approval rating as of today.

In fact Obama might pretty much force McCain to distance himself from Bush, or even denounce him, and who knows how the conservative base will accept that.

[mayday]

poor Hillary. no corination this year.

bye, bye BABY GOODBYE!!!!!

[mayday]

Originally Posted by JokeyLoki

I can't wait for that. Obama reads speeches very well, but he's not so good off the cuff.

He comes ups excellently off the cuff. Hillary has 0 vision, foresight, creativity or likability.

my feeling is that one of his biggest non-assests is what his wife comes up with "off the cuff". not too smooth . not at all