Hillary is going down?

[Future Boy]

you're just learning this?

[KrazeeStacee]

I just started paying attention to politics. It just makes me sad.

[Nimrod's Son]

i think obama's getting an unfair boost because it's black history month

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

keep in mind he is going to win hawaii and wisconsin next tuesday by sizeable margins, strengthening his frontrunner image. and he will probably win vermont and rhode island handily as well. that does just leave texas and ohio, and just to catch up hillary would have to be pulling 2/3 of the delegates. in the face of obama's 10 wins in a row i don't think it can happen.

If the polls I'm reading are anywhere near accurate, she probably will pull 2/3 of the vote in Texas and Ohio:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/texas.html

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ohio.html

The Latinos in Texas and the Union workers in Ohio will put her over comfortably, and she'll be right back in it. Again, Obama's winning the puny states but is getting crushed in the states that could potentially seal the deal for him. That last article ryan patrick posted indicates that Clinton is finished if she doesn't trounce Barack in Texas and Ohio. Well, if these polls are accurate, no worries there. She pulls off the shellacking, the race goes back to being neck and neck, and in the end she either sues for the delegates from Michigan and Florida and gets them, or the race comes down to the superdelegates, who pretty much always side with the old guard.

Hillary is NOT finished.

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

If the polls I'm reading are anywhere near accurate, she probably will pull 2/3 of the vote in Texas and Ohio:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/texas.html

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ohio.html

The Latinos in Texas and the Union workers in Ohio will put her over comfortably, and she'll be right back in it. Again, Obama's winning the puny states but is getting crushed in the states that could potentially seal the deal for him. That last article ryan patrick posted indicates that Clinton is finished if she doesn't trounce Barack in Texas and Ohio. Well, if these polls are accurate, no worries there. She pulls off the shellacking, the race goes back to being neck and neck, and in the end she either sues for the delegates from Michigan and Florida and gets them, or the race comes down to the superdelegates, who pretty much always side with the old guard.

Hillary is NOT finished.

that texas poll is ancient. pre-super tuesday, completely useless. not to mention the fact that the way that texas delegates are awarded favors the areas where obama is more likely to pull votes. i'm calling texas at best case for hillary a 50/50 split.

the ohio poll is a bit more useful but is pre-potomac sweep. by next week obama will add at least 5 more points there. it will also likely come down to a 50/50 best case for hillary.

[ryan patrick]

btw look at obama's momentum in those polls.

texas. december, 17%. early january, 28%. late january, 38%.

ohio. in a 2 week period from late january to early february his support has doubled.

also, a closer look from the sunday-monday ohio poll. obama was winning among independents, 48-42, who were 11% of respondents. but he was indeed getting crushed among latinos, who go 87% for clinton, but that was only 1% of respondents. 28% of those polled said they could change their mind.

but interestingly, among those in ohio who had absentee voted already, clinton was only up 51-47. not exactly a shellacking, and i think obama has plenty of ground yet to gain.

[ryan patrick]

also the texas polls from january saw obama gaining among latinos by the week. he started out with 7% of the latino vote in december, but had 29% by the end of january. we can assume he has continued to gain though the extent remains to be seen.

last word for today. check the polling in wisconsin. on 2/6-2/7 it was 50-41 for clinton. by 2/11 it was 50-39 for obama. you might think the people of ohio and texas are intransigent but this is how fast things are changing.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

btw look at obama's momentum in those polls.

texas. december, 17%. early january, 28%. late january, 38%.

ohio. in a 2 week period from late january to early february his support has doubled.

also, a closer look from the sunday-monday ohio poll. obama was winning among independents, 48-42, who were 11% of respondents. but he was indeed getting crushed among latinos, who go 87% for clinton, but that was only 1% of respondents. 28% of those polled said they could change their mind.

but interestingly, among those in ohio who had absentee voted already, clinton was only up 51-47. not exactly a shellacking, and i think obama has plenty of ground yet to gain.

You do realize that Ron Paul gained significantly from December to late January. Why? Well, because a ton of candidates dropped out. Those numbers by themselves are meaningless - of course Obama gained ground when it became more and more a two person race.

[ryan patrick]

yes, of course he gained from it being down to two, but he's continued to gain since. and all of those gains can't be credited solely to edwards supporters. nor can the flip in wisconsin.

for example, edwards had less support among latinos in texas than obama. that gain in latino share came from elsewhere.

[Nimrod's Son]

I'm not saying Obama hasn't gained ground; I'm saying the evidence you're using to support such gains is flimsy at best.

[TuralyonW3]

some sexy debate from a well-informed electorate going on here

[TuralyonW3]

obama better fucking win by the way, i couldn't stand the bitch or mccain

[Tchocky]

According to the latest polls, Hillz is not only killing Barack in Ohio, but also in Pennsylvania.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23164926

Still think Hillary is DOA?

[redbreegull]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

According to the latest polls, Hillz is not only killing Barack in Ohio, but also in Pennsylvania.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23164926

Still think Hillary is DOA?

I kind of figured she would win these states. But Obama really needs one of them to lock himself in. Otherwise Clinton is probably still the most likely to get the nomination.

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

According to the latest polls, Hillz is not only killing Barack in Ohio, but also in Pennsylvania.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23164926

Still think Hillary is DOA?

i think that poll isn't particularly useful because it was taken last week, not that she doesn't have a good lead on him, but i'm more interested in what polling is going to be like next week and a few days after the wisconsin/hawaii contests.

i'd point to the ramussen reports poll conducted in ohio on 2/13 as more indicative of hillary's lead there. she was up 51-37, with 12% undecided. but if we're talking about hillary being in the 50-55% range in ohio, when she needs 60%+ of the vote to bring it back just to even, the question is, can she make gains at this point? and how will independents/turnout affect the vote.

i'd like to see a new texas poll to give us some idea what things are like there.

maybe the clinton campaign can start making some good decisions. sending chelsea to hawaii to campaign this weekend was smart and could help soften the blow there... people like her. a good performance in the upcoming debates could help.

will this help?:

http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/POLITICS...on.ohio.ap.jpg

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

I'm not saying Obama hasn't gained ground; I'm saying the evidence you're using to support such gains is flimsy at best.

so you think obama can't/won't continue to gain ground at this point because it's a two-person contest and the momentum in the polls was just everything settling after edwards quit?

[jared]

thanks for your effort ryan, that looks like it took a ton of time

[DougieZero]

Rasmussen said they have been polling all day in Texas... new stuff finally being released tomorrow.

[The Omega Concern]

It's all kinda moot maybe...

Neither Obama or Hillary will stop the Chinese in the coming decade (mmmmmmmaybe McCain could). You know, when a half-billion men with no chicks to bang in the homeland get to release their pent up testosterone by rolling over America in their tanks, it's gonna suck.


but I'm sure the Olympics will be real nice this year.

[The Omega Concern]

anyway if the supersellouts catch the Obama wave, i guess that really could tip the scales to Obama as the nominee because those votes are about 20% of the total and many of them have ties to the Clinton's (I believe Bill is one himself, for that matter).

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

so you think obama can't/won't continue to gain ground at this point because it's a two-person contest and the momentum in the polls was just everything settling after edwards quit?

What? That's not what I said at all. You gave only one set of numbers, which in a vacuum tell us nothing.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by The Omega Concern

It's all kinda moot maybe...

Neither Obama or Hillary will stop the Chinese in the coming decade (mmmmmmmaybe McCain could). You know, when a half-billion men with no chicks to bang in the homeland get to release their pent up testosterone by rolling over America in their tanks, it's gonna suck.


but I'm sure the Olympics will be real nice this year.

Dude, Hillary will welcome her good friends the Chinese with open arms.

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

What? That's not what I said at all. You gave only one set of numbers, which in a vacuum tell us nothing.

so what you're saying is you think obama is a hitler-like figure.

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by The Omega Concern

It's all kinda moot maybe...

Neither Obama or Hillary will stop the Chinese in the coming decade (mmmmmmmaybe McCain could). You know, when a half-billion men with no chicks to bang in the homeland get to release their pent up testosterone by rolling over America in their tanks, it's gonna suck.


but I'm sure the Olympics will be real nice this year.

this post is awesome.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

so what you're saying is you think obama is a hitler-like figure.

more like hitler on coke

[Future Boy]

Amazing it hasnt happened more than once.

[Gish08]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

more like hitler on coke

You are an idiot. Stop listening to Fox radio you tool

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Gish08

You are an idiot. Stop listening to Fox radio you tool

That whole exchange just went right over your head, didn't it?

[mpp]

February 15, 2008 - Texas Primary Preferences

Democrats TX

Clinton 42%
Obama 48%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 7%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.

[hnibos]

uh oh