Hillary is going down?

[DougieZero]

Puerto Rico would also easily be a landslide for Hillary... and they have a ton of delegates.

The media is playing this like Ohio and Texas are the last stand for Hillary. I would say the same thing for Obama. It doesn't matter how many college kids are excited for Obama in some state that has already voted. It's about Latino voters in Texas, It's about Union people in Ohio.

The media can be misleading... Obama may "win" a state, but it's about the delegates, which get shared.

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by Cup O Mercury

I, Cup of Mercury will vote for Clinton in the Virginia Primary. I want her to win the nomination so that McCain can defeat her.

Y'know Cup, your girlfriend Ann Coulter has publicly said she'd support Hillary in a Hillary/McCain race. What do you think about that?

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by Future Boy

Cup O Mercury is Tchocky's TROLL, DO NOT REPLY TO IT.

Try again, guy. We are most certainly not the same person.

[The Omega Concern]

Hillary aint going down without taking the Democratic Party with her...


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/op...=1&oref=slogin





nice article from Frank Rich, New York Times:

and he's sayin there's going to be a Civil War in the Dem party that could rival '68. Remains to be seen but this article is a good read on the political game being played right now.

The campaign’s other most potent form of currency remains its thick deck of race cards. This was all too apparent in the Hallmark show. In its carefully calibrated cross section of geographically and demographically diverse cast members — young, old, one gay man, one vet, two union members — African-Americans were reduced to also-rans. One black woman, the former TV correspondent Carole Simpson, was given the servile role of the meeting’s nominal moderator, Ed McMahon to Mrs. Clinton’s top banana. Scattered black faces could be seen in the audience. But in the entire televised hour, there was not a single African-American questioner, whether to toss a softball or ask about the Clintons’ own recent misadventures in racial politics.

The Clinton camp does not leave such matters to chance. This decision was a cold, political cost-benefit calculus.

[ryan patrick]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/us...hp&oref=slogin

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.

Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.

They also said that they had not been especially soothed, and that they believed she might be on a losing streak that could jeopardize her competitiveness in those states.

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately “go with the flow,” in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.

[Future Boy]

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/us...hp&oref=slogin

Originally Posted by DougieZero

The media is playing this like Ohio and Texas are the last stand for Hillary. I would say the same thing for Obama. It doesn't matter how many college kids are excited for Obama in some state that has already voted. It's about Latino voters in Texas, It's about Union people in Ohio.

The truth is, while Obama is winning all these little states and picking up a few delegates here and there, Hillary has been killing him in the big states. Unless Obama somehow manages to split the Texas/Ohio primary (which isn't likely), this will probably be a neck-and-neck race up until the convention.

Women, Latinos and Union workers all love Hillz, and are too blind to realize that almost no one else does. They'll probably wind up giving her the nomination in the end, but she won't win a general election.

[DougieZero]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

The truth is, while Obama is winning all these little states and picking up a few delegates here and there, Hillary has been killing him in the big states. Unless Obama somehow manages to split the Texas/Ohio primary (which isn't likely), this will probably be a neck-and-neck race up until the convention.

Women, Latinos and Union workers all love Hillz, and are too blind to realize that almost no one else does. They'll probably wind up giving her the nomination in the end, but she won't win a general election.

Obama supporters need to realize that this is going to be very, very close. I have Hillary winning Wisconsin, Ohio, Texas and Puerto Rico.

It's going to be up to the super delegates... and they will break for whoever has the delegate lead. If they don't.... well... Chicago '68 ring a bell?

[sppunk]

Hilary ends up suing for Florida and Michigan's delegates, which will be wicked awesome.

[DougieZero]

Originally Posted by sppunk

Hilary ends up suing for Florida and Michigan's delegates, which will be wicked awesome.

LOL... well, I live in Michigan and Hillary was the only one on the ballot... so yeah, I guess she would want those delegates. The ballot looked like something from Saddam-era Iraq.

Plus everyone was told ahead of time that the election didn't count.

I would expect the state of Michigan to be burned down if those delegates went to Hillary.

[Nate the Grate]

The superdelegate system sure has run its course. What a crock of shit if it swings the nomination.

[Future Boy]

not really

[Nate the Grate]

Yeah, true.

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

The truth is, while Obama is winning all these little states and picking up a few delegates here and there, Hillary has been killing him in the big states. Unless Obama somehow manages to split the Texas/Ohio primary (which isn't likely), this will probably be a neck-and-neck race up until the convention.

Women, Latinos and Union workers all love Hillz, and are too blind to realize that almost no one else does. They'll probably wind up giving her the nomination in the end, but she won't win a general election.

cnn:

According to exit polls out of Virginia and Maryland, Obama won roughly 60 percent of the female vote -- a demographic that has carried Clinton to success in past primaries. Clinton fared worse among men -- more than two-thirds in both states chose Obama.

Meanwhile, Obama scored his highest percentage of African-American support to date, winning close to 90 percent of that voting bloc in each state.

The two evenly split the white vote in Virginia, while Clinton slightly beat Obama among whites in Maryland.

In most past primaries, Clinton has held an edge among white voters. Tuesday, Obama even beat Clinton among Latino voters, a group that has heavily favored Clinton in most past primaries.

In Virginia and Maryland, Latinos went for Obama over Clinton by 6 points, though their support was not decisive in either contest -- only 5 percent of Democratic primary voters in Virginia and 4 percent in Maryland were Latino.

The only demographic Clinton won was white women, who broke for her over Obama by 10 points in Virginia and 13 points in Maryland.

it's over

[JokeyLoki]

Clinton will take Texas and Ohio, and try to sue for the delegates in Florida and Michigan if that doesn't put her over the top.

It's not over. I doubt seriously she'll just bow out for the sake of the party... her ego will make her claw and bite her way to winning.

[severin]

Originally Posted by JokeyLoki

Clinton will take Texas and Ohio, and try to sue for the delegates in Florida and Michigan if that doesn't put her over the top.

i can't believe she would do that. even with my limited knowledge oncerning the inner workings of the party i'd assume that this would potentially break the party apart. besides it would give the republicans quite some ammunition, wouldn't it?

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by JokeyLoki

Clinton will take Texas and Ohio, and try to sue for the delegates in Florida and Michigan if that doesn't put her over the top.

It's not over. I doubt seriously she'll just bow out for the sake of the party... her ego will make her claw and bite her way to winning.

I do think that suing for the delegates would be a last-ditch maneuver for Hillz considering the potential negative political consequences, but if the cnn report that ryan patrick posted is true and 2/3rds of Clinton's core supporters are starting to swing to Obama, then she might not have a choice. Like you said, I doubt Hillary will put the greater good of the party over her personal ambitions. She'll sue and get the delegates, get the nomination while pissing off half her party, and subsequently get buried in the general election.

[Tchocky]

And none of what ryan patrick posted changes the fact that Hillary is currently crushing Obama in both Texas and Ohio in the polls, and Hillary sweeping those two states comfortably will probably swing momentum back in her favor.

Obama winning states like Idaho and Maryland is the presidential primary equivalent of the first half of the Detroit Lions football season last year, where they beat all the crappy teams and looked good, but when it came time to throw down against the good teams they got shellacked. Again, Obama's winning all the little states, but is getting beat badly in the states that actually have a considerable number of delegates.

It's far from over.

[JokeyLoki]

Originally Posted by severin

i can't believe she would do that. even with my limited knowledge oncerning the inner workings of the party i'd assume that this would potentially break the party apart. besides it would give the republicans quite some ammunition, wouldn't it?

I heard a quote from one of her top campaign aids last night on CNN that said there would be "a war" if Obama won on delegates. I wish they would have said specifically who. So, I don't put it past them.

[Debaser]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

And none of what ryan patrick posted changes the fact that Hillary is currently crushing Obama in both Texas and Ohio in the polls, and Hillary sweeping those two states comfortably will probably swing momentum back in her favor.

Obama winning states like Idaho and Maryland is the presidential primary equivalent of the first half of the Detroit Lions football season last year, where they beat all the crappy teams and looked good, but when it came time to throw down against the good teams they got shellacked. Again, Obama's winning all the little states, but is getting beat badly in the states that actually have a considerable number of delegates.

It's far from over.

isn't that basically the rudy guilliani strategy? forget all these unimportant little states in the primary and just concentrate on the big state Florida. but by the time we got to florida, the momentum of the other candidates winning the previous small states obliterated guiliani.

[Future Boy]

Originally Posted by Debaser

isn't that basically the rudy guilliani strategy? forget all these unimportant little states in the primary and just concentrate on the big state Florida. but by the time we got to florida, the momentum of the other candidates winning the previous small states obliterated guiliani.

Its not really the same thing at all. Rudy wasnt essentially even in the delegate count, and was a non-factor at all before trying for one win. I mean it isnt the smartest strategy, why they wont contest Wisconsin at least especially, but its far from what Guiliani was trying.

Originally Posted by JokeyLoki

Clinton will take Texas and Ohio, and try to sue for the delegates in Florida and Michigan if that doesn't put her over the top.

It's not over. I doubt seriously she'll just bow out for the sake of the party... her ego will make her claw and bite her way to winning.

She wont sue, thats where the deal making comes in. Accepting a VP spot is a lot better than the money wasted on lawyers, and a fractured party that would hate her, even her supporters.

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by Future Boy

She wont sue, thats where the deal making comes in. Accepting a VP spot is a lot better than the money wasted on lawyers, and a fractured party that would hate her, even her supporters.

Like JokeyLoki said, it will all come down to which is more important to Hillary, the greater good of the party or her personal ambition. And judging from her actions so far, I agree with the notion that she'll make this a fight to the finish one way or another, even if it means splintering the party.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by ryan patrick

According to exit polls out of Virginia and Maryland, Obama won roughly 60 percent of the female vote -- a demographic that has carried Clinton to success in past primaries. Clinton fared worse among men -- more than two-thirds in both states chose Obama.

Meanwhile, Obama scored his highest percentage of African-American support to date, winning close to 90 percent of that voting bloc in each state.

The two evenly split the white vote in Virginia, while Clinton slightly beat Obama among whites in Maryland.

In most past primaries, Clinton has held an edge among white voters. Tuesday, Obama even beat Clinton among Latino voters, a group that has heavily favored Clinton in most past primaries.

In Virginia and Maryland, Latinos went for Obama over Clinton by 6 points, though their support was not decisive in either contest -- only 5 percent of Democratic primary voters in Virginia and 4 percent in Maryland were Latino.

The only demographic Clinton won was white women, who broke for her over Obama by 10 points in Virginia and 13 points in Maryland.



it's over

Can anyone tell me that were these numbers reversed - 90% of whites voting for Clinton - that Al Shaprton wouldn't be all over our TVs screaming about racism? Too bad it doesn't work the other way, huh.. maybe we should get his white counterpart, Daniel Carver on Larry King Live.

For the Dems to continue to claim that race isn't a factor is ridiculous.

[Nimrod's Son]

I can't believe people are even suggesting that the Clintons would splinter the Democratic Party into factions. The Clintons? Really?

[Future Boy]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Like JokeyLoki said, it will all come down to which is more important to Hillary, the greater good of the party or her personal ambition. And judging from her actions so far, I agree with the notion that she'll make this a fight to the finish one way or another, even if it means splintering the party.

Her personla ambition and the good of the party in that case would lie in the same direction.

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

For the Dems to continue to claim that race isn't a factor is ridiculous.

Have people said this? Maybe as far as whites voting Obama, but I dont know of people saying its not a racial thing for blacks. Thats kind of a no brainer.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Future Boy

Her personla ambition and the good of the party in that case would lie in the same direction.

Have people said this? Maybe as far as whites voting Obama, but I dont know of people saying its not a racial thing for blacks. Thats kind of a no brainer.

It's been all over the media... CNN mainly.. Democratic pundits and campaign advisors stating that race has nothing at all to do with the race, so much that it's been beaten into my skull

[ryan patrick]

another article about clinton being totally boned:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/02...n_even_ha.html

[ryan patrick]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

And none of what ryan patrick posted changes the fact that Hillary is currently crushing Obama in both Texas and Ohio in the polls, and Hillary sweeping those two states comfortably will probably swing momentum back in her favor.

there really haven't been enough polls in texas and ohio. actually have there even been any in texas since edwards dropped out? and the polls won't show until next week just how much the obama momentum has changed the numbers.

keep in mind he is going to win hawaii and wisconsin next tuesday by sizeable margins, strengthening his frontrunner image. and he will probably win vermont and rhode island handily as well. that does just leave texas and ohio, and just to catch up hillary would have to be pulling 2/3 of the delegates. in the face of obama's 10 wins in a row i don't think it can happen.

[KrazeeStacee]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

The superdelegate system sure has run its course. What a crock of shit if it swings the nomination.

But isn't that the point?

[KrazeeStacee]

Originally Posted by severin

i can't believe she would do that. even with my limited knowledge oncerning the inner workings of the party i'd assume that this would potentially break the party apart. besides it would give the republicans quite some ammunition, wouldn't it?

What I'm learning is the democrats like to fuck things up for themselves...