The Detroit Tigers are really, really not great

[17 Seconds]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

Statistically, they've been the third best team in the AL this year.

Although I hate to rag on my team, there's no way they make the wild card this year. They are at the bottom of team defense and have made the most outs on the bases this year of any team in the league

My guess is they unload players before the deadline -- E. Perez, Paul Byrd, A. Boone (if anyone is stupid enough to want him), and Ronnie Belliard possibly.

Thank God they got rid of Jason Johnson - that guy is a complete stiff. I think it shows the state of the Red Sox pitching if they pick a player up that Cleveland doesn't want...

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by 17 Seconds

Although I hate to rag on my team, there's no way they make the wild card this year. They are at the bottom of team defense and have made the most outs on the bases this year of any team in the league

My guess is they unload players before the deadline -- E. Perez, Paul Byrd, A. Boone (if anyone is stupid enough to want him), and Ronnie Belliard possibly.

Thank God they got rid of Jason Johnson - that guy is a complete stiff. I think it shows the state of the Red Sox pitching if they pick a player up that Cleveland doesn't want...

I don't understand these minor stats you're throwing around, like sppunk's "defense will win the division" nonsense.

They're scoring runs. They should not be trying to steal bases, period.

They should be buyers and not sellers.

Their run differential indicates they've been the unluckiest team in the AL

[17 Seconds]

What I'm saying is they make the stupid mistakes that cost them the close games and then completely not show up in others. Take Wednesdsay night. The Cards completely hand them the game in the top of the ninth by dropping a pop fly in shallow left.

Wickman comes in to close it out, and gets the first batter to pop up to the catcher - only Soppach drops the damn ball. Taguchi eventually scores to tie the game.

Fast forward to the end of the inning - Peralta nonchalantly flips the ball from short to Victor Martinez (who is playing his third game at first of the entire year) - Martinez can't make the scoop - winning run scores. I totally blame Peralta here - he should have taken the extra half-second to set and make a good throw.

I hope you are right... but I don't think they have the little things necessary to put together a second half for the ages like they did last year.

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

I can't argue with you except on the Rangers. Cleveland will get hot in the second half. Their current run differential vs expected wins is -6 which is the biggest defecit in the AL. I don't expect the Tigers to hang all season.

Were I to choose now I would say
OAK, CHW, NYY

WC: CLE (edging TOR and MIN)

let the record show that nimrod is predicting a team under .500 to make the playoffs, while completely dismissing a team that is 20 games over .500. seriously, cleveland's not where they are because of luck. come on, you know better than that.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

let the record show that nimrod is predicting a team under .500 to make the playoffs, while completely dismissing a team that is 20 games over .500. seriously, cleveland's not where they are because of luck. come on, you know better than that.

Statistical evidence is completely lost on you.

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

Statistical evidence is completely lost on you.

you REALLY think that cleveland will play .700 ball the rest of the way and end up with 95 wins? because I don't. and I don't think that you can't account for a .455 winning percentage because statistical evidence shows they are unlucky. I think it's more likely that they're sucking because Peralta, Boone, and Belliard suck, and Westbrook, Byrd, and Lee aren't pitching that great. oh and they have no bullpen past Wickman (who also sucks) and Betancourt. and I mean NO bullpen.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

you REALLY think that cleveland will play .700 ball the rest of the way and end up with 95 wins? because I don't. and I don't think that you can't account for a .455 winning percentage because statistical evidence shows they are unlucky. I think it's more likely that they're sucking because Peralta, Boone, and Belliard suck, and Westbrook, Byrd, and Lee aren't pitching that great. oh and they have no bullpen past Wickman (who also sucks) and Betancourt. and I mean NO bullpen.

I think they have a really good chance at the WC, and if not I picked the Twins or the Jays. So yes.

I expect the Tigers to collapse

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

I think they have a really good chance at the WC, and if not I picked the Twins or the Jays. So yes.

I expect the Tigers to collapse

I assume that you have picked the Yankees to win the East, so please explain to me how the team with the 2nd best offense in baseball, the best defense in baseball, and the 6th best pitching staff in the AL isn't mentioned in the playoff run. since you're so statistically inclined. oh and one rule: no pythagorean records. let's use facts here, not theorems.

[17 Seconds]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

you REALLY think that cleveland will play .700 ball the rest of the way and end up with 95 wins? because I don't. and I don't think that you can't account for a .455 winning percentage because statistical evidence shows they are unlucky. I think it's more likely that they're sucking because Peralta, Boone, and Belliard suck, and Westbrook, Byrd, and Lee aren't pitching that great. oh and they have no bullpen past Wickman (who also sucks) and Betancourt. and I mean NO bullpen.

Belliard doesn't suck. He has a .288 BA and a good glove. He's a solid player.

And I'd take Westbrook, Byrd, and Lee as my 2, 3, and 4 starters any day over Boston's 2, 3, and 4. Beckett's better than those three, but who else do they have? And please don't mention Wakefield.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

I assume that you have picked the Yankees to win the East, so please explain to me how the team with the 2nd best offense in baseball, the best defense in baseball, and the 6th best pitching staff in the AL isn't mentioned in the playoff run. since you're so statistically inclined. oh and one rule: no pythagorean records. let's use facts here, not theorems.

Wait.. you're trying to say that run differential is a theory and not a fact?

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by 17 Seconds

Belliard doesn't suck. He has a .288 BA and a good glove. He's a solid player.

And I'd take Westbrook, Byrd, and Lee as my 2, 3, and 4 starters any day over Boston's 2, 3, and 4. Beckett's better than those three, but who else do they have? And please don't mention Wakefield.

tim wakefield
jon lester

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

Wait.. you're trying to say that run differential is a theory and not a fact?

uh, when did I say run differential wasn't a fact? I clearly said pythagorean records are theorems, which they are. way to avoid the question.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

uh, when did I say run differential wasn't a fact? I clearly said pythagorean records are theorems, which they are. way to avoid the question.

ok.. last time... phytagorean records so NOT predict things. They show what a team's record should have been based on: how many runs they scored vs how many runs they gave up.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

tim wakefield
jon lester

lol

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

ok.. last time... phytagorean records so NOT predict things. They show what a team's record should have been based on: how many runs they scored vs how many runs they gave up.

I didn't say they predict things! what the hell is wrong with you? do you just make up stuff to respond to?

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

lol

???

3.86
2.95

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

I didn't say they predict things! what the hell is wrong with you? do you just make up stuff to respond to?

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

rule: no pythagorean records. let's use facts here, not theorems.

And please look at the other thread where it took me 5 posts to describe to you what it was, and your response was to make a PECOTA thread which is more speculative than anything else

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

???

3.86
2.95

3 starts for Lester and you're annointing him.

Ok then the best pitcher in MLB is Matt Smith.

I can do it too!

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

3 starts for Lester and you're annointing him.

Ok then the best pitcher in MLB is Matt Smith.

I can do it too!

4, and you know better than to dismiss minor league numbers.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

4, and you know better than to dismiss minor league numbers.

Phil Hughes just won the 2007 Cy Young

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

Phil Hughes just won the 2007 Cy Young

seriously, you're an idiot. 4 very good starts, excellent minor league numbers, lefty. you can't dismiss that. I'm not annointing the guy a saint, I just think he'll be able to produce good results this season. I have more faith in Lester than I do in Paul freakin Byrd.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

seriously, you're an idiot. 4 very good starts, excellent minor league numbers, lefty. you can't dismiss that. I'm not annointing the guy a saint, I just think he'll be able to produce good results this season. I have more faith in Lester than I do in Paul freakin Byrd.

Of course. He wears a "B" on his cap.

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

Of course. He wears a "B" on his cap.

you can't possibly compare a guy that has had significant minor league time while dominating AA, handling AAA, and now proving himself in the bigs to a guy that has barely thrown 100 minor league innings.

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally Posted by Nate the Grate

you can't possibly compare a guy that has had significant minor league time while dominating AA, handling AAA, and now proving himself in the bigs to a guy that has barely thrown 100 minor league innings.

No, just like you cant compare a guy with 4 starts to pitchers who have established career stats

[Nate the Grate]

okay, well I'll just mention that Lester had better numbers than Fransisco Liriano last year, in the same league, at the same age.

just sayin

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by Nimrod's Son

Statistically, they've been the third best team in the AL this year.

The whole is often not the sum of the parts. A team can be good statistically, but the W column is all that matters. I won't believe the Tigers will level off until I see evidence of it happening. And I also won't believe that the Tribe will rise like some baseball phoenix and be unbeatable in the second half of the season (as you seem to be predicting) until I see evidence.

Time will tell, I guess.

[neopryn]

hey Nimrod did you say in another thread that Ortiz didn't deserve to be on the All-Star team?

[wally]

jesus, you trying to start a riot?

[Nate the Grate]

Originally Posted by neopryn

hey Nimrod did you say in another thread that Ortiz didn't deserve to be on the All-Star team?

I was actually going to mention this, but I really didn't want to get into it. I already know Nimrod's argument: Doesn't play the field (which is negligible, because I'd say that Giambi's fielding is virtually has negative value) and 4th in first basemen in OPS (despite the fact that he is 7th overall, and leads the league in homers and RBI. OPS isn't the only stat that matters, while it is a great one. nobody's picking all-stars based on VORP).

ah crap I didn't mean to do that