Explain in full, your estimation of...

[Orchestra]

timeframe in which the fall of western civilization with occur.

EDIT: wrong board

[Nimrod's Son]

34 years, 7 mos, 5 days

[BeautifulLoser]

Originally posted by Nimrod's Son
34 years, 7 mos, 5 days

I say less. More like 20 years, 4 months, and 2 days.

[Orchestra]

I thnk you should stick to the three E's
Education, Explaination, Essay

[Mariner]

if it goes, it will begin in earnest in about 5-10 years and will be over a little more than halfway through the century.

i'm basing my start-time estimate on the fact that the last few new major oil drilling projects on the planet will go online in 2007-2008 and will barely have the capacity to replace other oil fields whose outputs are quickly declining as of now. after the '07/'08 projects go online, none of the oil companies have anything big on the board after that, and their long-term business plans then focus on eating up other oil companies, not exploring for/developing new oil fields.

[Orchestra]

though a short attempt, Mariner got the idea.

[Andrew_Pakula]

I think we are already on a decline although not fallen yet.

As long as there is oil then the status quo can continue for western civilization.

However once we actually do start running low on oil that is when I think things will start to collapse very quickly.

There is much debate and speculation about when exactly the world will run out of oil, whether it is 30, 50, 60 years who knows for sure, I have a bad feeling it will be sooner rather then later though.

[sppunk]

Oil's going nowhere: The largest oil field ever has just be found and not even punctured yet in the gulf of Mexico, south of New Orleans. It can produce enough oil for the world's consumption alone for (they estimate) 70 years+.

And, with the trend of hybrid becoming cheaper and more popular, the demand for oil will began to trickle down in about 20 years. Also, synthetic oil will have a strong place in the market, creating a demand for natural oil even less.

I think Luxemburg's gonna nuke us all, though, in 11 years.

[neopryn]

ever see the Day After Tomorrow. that got me thinking man. that could really happnen. TOMORROW.

[Shparticus]

Eh. We can worry about it the day after.

[Nimrod's Son]

I think if anything the loss of oil benefits Western Society. Alternative fuels not from the middle east means those nations now can ride camels, eat sand, and drink oil.

On the flipside, I'm pretty sure Western Society began the decline in the 1960's. We'll completely destory ourselves by the date above.

[The Omega Concern]

Big Brother is eating at Western Civ pretty good right now, just ask Paris Hilton about the notion of privacy and somewhere in her answer is the reason.

no privacy pretty much = no Western Civ (as we know it now).

[Mariner]

Originally posted by sppunk
Oil's going nowhere: The largest oil field ever has just be found and not even punctured yet in the gulf of Mexico, south of New Orleans. It can produce enough oil for the world's consumption alone for (they estimate) 70 years+.

And, with the trend of hybrid becoming cheaper and more popular, the demand for oil will began to trickle down in about 20 years. Also, synthetic oil will have a strong place in the market, creating a demand for natural oil even less.

could you point me in the direction of any news items or other information about this giant new oil field?

Originally posted by Nimrod's Son

I think if anything the loss of oil benefits Western Society. Alternative fuels not from the middle east means those nations now can ride camels, eat sand, and drink oil.

On the flipside, I'm pretty sure Western Society began the decline in the 1960's. We'll completely destory ourselves by the date above.

I totally agree on both points. The key to the security and stability of global 'western' civilization is energy independence.

And yeah, in some ways i think you could argue that the decline began then, although in many ways we are only reaching a pinnacle right now.

[gurr8]

Originally posted by sppunk

And, with the trend of hybrid becoming cheaper and more popular, the demand for oil will began to trickle down in about 20 years.

Vehicles (which, first of all, are not our only use of fuel) will forever become more and more efficient. However, their mileage will never improve. If you look at the trends of the last 20 years, you will see that the average fuel economy has decreased. Of course, those vehicles are producing remarkably more horsepower and torque. They are also smoother and produce less emissions.

Increased efficiency will never mean more mileage, it will mean more power. It has been the trend in internal combustion engines for two decades and it will be the trend with hybrids: the future of hybrids will be with Honda's Accord Hybrid, which it is the most powerful Accord ever but gets the same mileage that you can get with a four cylinder I.C.E.

[christian zombie vampires]

all it really takes is one spontaneous crisis (economic bankruptcy, terrorist attack, pres gets assasinated) and at this point things could spiral out of control really easily (executive orders(end of netphoria = end of civilization), draft, oil shortages)

i bet there'll be brownouts in US cities by 2007.

[tear stained glass]

western civilization made it through the middle ages. it's not like there's anything that could take it's place. oh, anarchy. mhmm, yeah. right.

[Orchestra]

Originally posted by The Omega Concern
Big Brother is eating at Western Civ pretty good right now, just ask Paris Hilton about the notion of privacy and somewhere in her answer is the reason.

no privacy pretty much = no Western Civ (as we know it now).

I agree with this moreso than oil. I think oil is a diversion for us to turn away from bigger issues that are evolving, such as the loss of privacy or decaying enviornment.

[Corganist]

I think the only thing that can really bring Western Civilization down to its knees on a major level would be some sort of natural phenomenon far out of human control (12 Monkeys-type germ epidemic that starts dropping people like flies, big meteor slams into the middle of the US, aliens invade, etc.) All these other worries about the environment, energy, terrorism, war, etc. will end up being managed by good old fashioned human ingenuity. It might be rough, but things aren't going to degenerate into total chaos.

Here's a passage I found from a speech by Michael Crichton, I think it kinda sums up my perspective nicely.

Look: If I was selling stock in a company that I told you would be profitable in 2100, would you buy it? Or would you think the idea was so crazy that it must be a scam?

Let's think back to people in 1900 in, say, New York. If they worried about people in 2000, what would they worry about? Probably: Where would people get enough horses? And what would they do about all the horseshit? Horse pollution was bad in 1900, think how much worse it would be a century later, with so many more people riding horses?

But of course, within a few years, nobody rode horses except for sport. And in 2000, France was getting 80% its power from an energy source that was unknown in 1900. Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Japan were getting more than 30% from this source, unknown in 1900. Remember, people in 1900 didn't know what an atom was. They didn't know its structure. They also didn't know what a radio was, or an airport, or a movie, or a television, or a computer, or a cell phone, or a jet, an antibiotic, a rocket, a satellite, an MRI, ICU, IUD, IBM, IRA, ERA, EEG, EPA, IRS, DOD, PCP, HTML, internet. interferon, instant replay, remote sensing, remote control, speed dialing, gene therapy, gene splicing, genes, spot welding, heat-seeking, bipolar, prozac, leotards, lap dancing, email, tape recorder, CDs, airbags, plastic explosive, plastic, robots, cars, liposuction, transduction, superconduction, dish antennas, step aerobics, smoothies, twelve-step, ultrasound, nylon, rayon, teflon, fiber optics, carpal tunnel, laser
surgery, laparoscopy, corneal transplant, kidney transplant, AIDS. None of this would have meant anything to a person in the year 1900. They wouldn't know what you are talking about.

Now. You tell me you can predict the world of 2100

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally posted by Corganist
Now. You tell me you can predict the world of 2100 - Michael Crichton

http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/blogs/s...scarydinos.jpghttp://www.folkmanis.com/imagefilesA/tyrannos.JPG

[Mariner]

Originally speeched by Michael Crichton


a radio was, or an airport, or a movie, or a television, or a computer, or a cell phone, or a jet, an antibiotic, a rocket, a satellite, an MRI, ICU, IUD, IBM, IRA, ERA, EEG, EPA, IRS, DOD, PCP, HTML, internet. interferon, instant replay, remote sensing, remote control, speed dialing, gene therapy, gene splicing, genes, spot welding, heat-seeking, bipolar, prozac, leotards, lap dancing, email, tape recorder, CDs, airbags, plastic explosive, plastic, robots, cars, liposuction, transduction, superconduction, dish antennas, step aerobics, smoothies, twelve-step, ultrasound, nylon, rayon, teflon, fiber optics, carpal tunnel, laser
surgery, laparoscopy, corneal transplant, kidney transplant, AIDS.

none of these things are / would have been possible without abundant and easily accessible oil. it provides both the energy and the raw materials that make all aspects of 'modern' life possible.

all of the above mentioned things (ok, most of them) are necessary to boost us off of reliance on unsustainable energy and raw material sources. they are the tools which human ingenuity will hopefully be able to wield to move our society forward.

here's my question: what happens if, after 'putting all our eggs in one basket' (oil) in our gamble to advance our intellectual and technological abilities, that basket disappears before we advance enough to not need the basket anymore?

[Nimrod's Son]

Originally posted by Mariner


none of these things are / would have been possible without abundant and easily accessible oil. it provides both the energy and the raw materials that make all aspects of 'modern' life possible.

all of the above mentioned things (ok, most of them) are necessary to boost us off of reliance on unsustainable energy and raw material sources. they are the tools which human ingenuity will hopefully be able to wield to move our society forward.

here's my question: what happens if, after 'putting all our eggs in one basket' (oil) in our gamble to advance our intellectual and technological abilities, that basket disappears before we advance enough to not need the basket anymore?

The ones with the needs for fuels forcibly take it from the ones who have it.

[Mariner]

Originally posted by Nimrod's Son
The ones with the needs for fuels forcibly take it from the ones who have it.

interesting

[relaxor!]

We'll get hit by a much bigger and deadlier terrorist attack. And as the need for manpower and money increases to fund the US overseas force, so too will the inner corruption really amp up, as it has begun in the latter half of the 20th century. At some point the President will require emergency powers to counter the new terrorist threats, and from then on we will call the United States 1776-2045 or whatever the Old Republic. And obviously the EU and China will take the place of the US as the dominant forces in the world.

[LittleWing]

I sure hope that I'm alive when this all happens.

[Ihaman]

I think you guys are placing too much on oil for the fall of western civilization, come on...that's the easiest way out.
I think the value of the dollar is going to drop while foreign exchange begins to inflate and things like foreign money markets and european interests will begin to take the higest priority as far as the economy will do.
We'll see a dramatic increase in overseas technological advancements (india being the largest contributer) and the beginning of a very large pilgrimage towards the middle eastern and eurasian countries as that's where a new, more liberal technological empire is being built.
It's here that the corporations and the state will be seperated and a perfect capitalist society will be settled into, the rest of the world will follow in the footsteps and eventually live blissfully in a state of extreme capitalist (socialist) regime, running purely off steam, very little fossil fules, and electricity. The modern day United States will no longer a statutory system and will be overthrown by a very healthy canada and a very poor mexico, creating two large empires whose largest exports are textiles, pharmaceuticals, and crops.

[christian zombie vampires]

Originally posted by Ihaman
I think you guys are placing too much on oil for the fall of western civilization, come on...that's the easiest way out.
I think the value of the dollar is going to drop while foreign exchange begins to inflate and things like foreign money markets and european interests will begin to take the higest priority as far as the economy will do.
We'll see a dramatic increase in overseas technological advancements (india being the largest contributer) and the beginning of a very large pilgrimage towards the middle eastern and eurasian countries as that's where a new, more liberal technological empire is being built.
It's here that the corporations and the state will be seperated and a perfect capitalist society will be settled into, the rest of the world will follow in the footsteps and eventually live blissfully in a state of extreme capitalist (socialist) regime, running purely off steam, very little fossil fules, and electricity. The modern day United States will no longer a statutory system and will be overthrown by a very healthy canada and a very poor mexico, creating two large empires whose largest exports are textiles, pharmaceuticals, and crops.

so was this a +3 or +4 acid trip?

[Mariner]

Originally posted by christian zombie vampires


so was this a +3 or +4 acid trip?

heh, yeah.

steam? wtf. you generally have to burn something to create the heat that boils water into steam.

[Ihaman]

Originally posted by Mariner


heh, yeah.

steam? wtf. you generally have to burn something to create the heat that boils water into steam.

I meant nuclear power.

[Mariner]

Originally posted by Ihaman



nuclear power.

ugh


please god no.

[gurr8]

more to do with cities than civilization in general, but quite interesting:

http://www.thestar.ca

End of suburbia draws nigh
This 'living arrangement ... has no future' when cheap gas disappears: Documentary

By Christopher Hume


Already the cold winds of change have started to blow through the suburbs. Everywhere around us there are signs of looming catastrophe.

But as anyone who watches the upcoming television documentary The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream will see, that doesn't seem to have caused us even a moment's hesitation. If anything, we are rushing towards oblivion faster than ever.

The one-hour special, which airs Wednesday at 10 p.m. on Vision TV, should be a wake-up call to all those denizens of sprawl. If the talking heads who appear in this compelling and deeply disturbing Canadian-made program are right — and they most assuredly are — North America had better figure out new ways of living that don't depend on cheap, plentiful oil.

Perhaps the most compelling expert on hand, Matthew Simmons, chair of the largest energy investment bank in the world, puts the case against suburbia very eloquently.

"Everything in society we cherish ended when the blackout (of August 2003) came," Simmons states. "If that wasn't a fire drill for how important energy actually is ... but people didn't get it. I don't think we actually learned a thing from it."

Indeed, as other speakers make clear, rather than deal with these issues, we simply elect politicians who aid and abet our refusal to get real.

Their argument is simple: suburbia couldn't exist without cars, and people couldn't afford to drive those cars without endless cheap gas. As they also make clear, the amount of oil pumped out of the ground is expected to peak sometime between now and 2010 at the latest. After that, every gallon of gas grows more and more expensive, rendering auto-based sprawl obsolete.

"The whole suburban project can be summarized pretty succinctly as the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world," explains author James Howard Kunstler. "America took all its post-war wealth and invested it in a living arrangement that has no future."

What makes the situation even harder to understand is our unwillingness to face up to it while it's still possible. This cultural, intellectual and economic inertia can be seen right here in Ontario where the debate about the greenbelt has only just started. To his credit, Premier Dalton McGuinty has adopted a greenbelt plan, but the development industry and — God help us — some farmers will do everything they can to stop it. Groups such as the Fraser Institute and various home builders' associations parade their experts, mostly American, who for a fee explain people actually enjoy commuting, that sprawl is good and global warming isn't happening.

If only. The truth is we will have to learn how to make do with much less. As Kunstler points out, the days where the ingredients of a Caesar salad travel 4,800 kilometres to your table are over, whether we realize it or not. Those farmers busy railing against McGuinty's perfectly sensible, desperately needed scheme to stop sprawl will soon find themselves part of an agricultural system based on proximity to local markets. Future growth based on oil and natural gas is not possible, Simmons warns. Those holding their breath for hydrogen fuel should get serious; it's not going to happen. Instead, we'd rather carry on building suburbs destined to become the slums of tomorrow, McMansions that will be obsolete long before the mortgage has been paid off.

Though there's some discussion on the show about the New Urbanism, a movement that seeks to reform urban planning, it's unlikely to be the answer.

If author Richard Heinberg is correct, we are at the end of an era that stretches back uninterrupted almost 50 years. The question, he says, is whether future generations will look back on the second half of the 20th century as a golden age or a time of unmatched stupidity.

Not surprisingly, he opts for the latter.