Most casual fans would recognise the Pumpkins as "the bald guy", "the Japanese guy", and "the girl on bass". I doubt any would recognise the drummer.
Once you've got that then you've got what the public consider "(the) Smashing Pumpkins". If "the girl on bass" is someone else (even a different girl), I'm not sure the public would really care. It's like do casual fans know that it's not Kim Deal with the Pixies? It's still a girl right?
What'll happen is HYPE. It'll be hyped by promoters as a "reunion" tour, and that's what'll sell the tickets. A few good early reviews, playing all the hits, some nice t-shirts on sale, job done.
IF D'arcy does come back, it'll appease the fans but at the same time if she is unrecognisable (pink hair, big lips) then it might as well be a different "girl on bass".
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