Today is the day
 

The Dean and Gpehardt campaigns are in full-on smear mode. They have even gone so low as to call Edwards supporters in the middle of the night (i.e. 2am) and pretend that they are calling from the Edwards campaign.

Several months of work and it all comes down to tonight.

Good luck. I'll be thinking of you.

Will this be the end of your stint with Edwards or will you go on to work on his campaign more?

I will find that out tomorrow at noon. It all hinges on how we do tonight and how much money the campaign has left.

But, I have a couple of interviews lined for higher up field positions for some other campaigns and non-profits when I get back to DC (I'm heading out back there tomorrow morning).

well, i'll be glued to the TV

with edwards' recent surge and all the kucininch supporters signed on to vote for him if kucinich doesn't get 15% in the local caucuses, that should give him enough for a win or a close 2nd place finish

that, coupled with a win in South Carolina, and he's white house bound

the republicans can have florida...we'll take north carolina and march into the white house in november, baby

Riiiiiiiight. :)

smile all you want to, but my argument is based on historical fact and logic


in teh 2000 election, gore didn't win any southern states...zero

if he had won one (maybe north carolina or tennessee), he would've won and bush would've lost, florida notwithstanding

But, Kucininch supporters are so few they won't automatically bump Edwards up. Clark's above Edwards and hasn't even campaigned in Iowa.

I'm sure every other candidate is dirty and Edwards is squeaky clean.

bluestar- i met you once i think. at the march 2000 LA signing?

he doesn't need much of a push; i didn't say it was automatic; i just said that fact coupled with his recent surge should secure him a better finish that anyone thought he'd get


Source?

USA/CNN/Gallop, AP and that Z survey I forget how to spell. And, Clark has been to Iowa (I believe) twice.

Ugh, I hate how everyone has hyped up primaries. Until there's a national primary, this will all be bullshit.

Kerry's leading the polls right now.

Indeed, never denied that in this thread.

there is one difference b/w kerry and edwards that is very important: edwards can beat bush but kerry can't

no massachusetts democrat is going to get any support in the south, no matter how much of a war hero he is, and support in the south is for a democrat president hopeful is teh most important thing

no democrat has ever won a presidential election w/o five "southern" states


i mean, massachusetts will go democrat anyway; get a guy like edwards who has the ABILITY to carry a state like north carolina (plus fifteen electoral votes) and you win win win

but did Edwards get head??

ask bluestar

I used to agree with that viewpoint until very recently, when someone opened my eyes to a new way of thinking. The South is going to vote Republican no matter who runs as a Democrat. Bush's support is strongest in the South; they like his racist warmongering, and no ammount of campaigning is going to change that. Gore couldn't even take his home state; Edwards is going to have equal difficulty taking his. Gore, also, all but won the Presidency without taking any of the south. Alot, if not most, of those states Gore took will vote Democrat as a matter of fact again, no matter who runs. Personally, I think it's easier for a Dem to try and sway over states like Ohio, West Virginia (how many REpublicans have they voted for over the years), Missouri that voted Bush before, then it is for someone to sway Southern states.

Just 14 years ago, Clinton won several southern states. It's not impossible at all.

However, you're correct in saying the Dems need to focus on more than just hte South.

you ruin joke :(
 

*sigh* :nooooo:

14 years ago, Bush Sr. did not stand on the steps of Bob Jones University and sing choruses with racists that pacify the hateful spew that southerns so adore. 14 years ago, Clinton's opponent didn't snuggle up with de facto southern gods like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell. I agree it's not impossible for a Democrat to win in the south, but I consider the political climate making it much harder for a Democrat to win their now (with the exception of Florida) then 14 years ago. Much easier to win Ohio River Valley and hold lead in New England, Illinios, Michigan, California, New York.

Re: you ruin joke :(
 

i thought that's what you were getting at

do you at least think i had a logical basis to rest my assumption on?

bluestar is probably blowing him in the bathroom tonight

Woohoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We fucking RULED all my counties and all the precincts in those counties!!! I delivered it!!! We took 2nd!!!!!!!!!

But, when Edwards finishes fourth in NH, what happens? 'Cause he'll have a 1st, 2nd and 4th: Same as Kerry, and Dean will probably have 1st, 2nd and 3rd after S.C.

And, after that, Super Tuesday is New England, California and Michigan. I still contend it'll be a Kerry vs. Dean race to Super Tuesday.

Re: Re: you ruin joke :(
 

it was a logical assumption, but did you have to ruin my joke in agreeing with it and trying to one up it ? :(
Sometimes subtle nuances are best

Re: Re: Re: you ruin joke :(
 

you are seriously 100% right; i will correct my idiocy in teh future

The full Iowa story
 

I'm back in DC, sitting at my desk, drinking a glass of champagne, and grinning from ear to ear.

Our theme, particularly in Southwest Iowa (the black hole for Democrats and, in the beginning, for Edwards) was: "Doing more with less...in the wild, wild west". We most definitely DID do MORE with less.

Just a few weeks ago, we were hoping for a 3rd place finish and to just be viable in each of the precicnts. Well, I am very very VERY proud and happy to report that Edwards came in 1st in each of the five counties that I was in charge of. Not only did he come in 1st, he blew away Kerry and Dean in two of my counties. The final percentage I saw of people going for Edwards in one of my counties was 66.7%. 66.7%!!! That is the highest percentage of all the counties in Iowa.

On caucus night, I was out in Mt Ayr (Ringgold County) acting as a Precinct Captain for Mt Ayr Ward 2. One of the crazy things about the Iowa caucuses is the amount of disgression that the Caucus Chair has over the caucus. In Mt Ayr Ward 2, we did not even break out into preference groups. They did it by a show of hands...and then, after determining which groups weren't viable (Gephardt and Kucinich), broke out into preference groups for realignment. All the Gephardt people came over to Edwards. Which just goes to show how important it was that the polls were showing that Edwards was everyone's 2nd choice. Suprisingly, Gephardt and Dean were not viable in most of the areas I covered...and all those people came over to Edwards. In My Ayr Ward 2, Edwards had 29 people in his preference group...winning 10 of the 20 delegates up for grabs in that precinct. When I saw all those people raise their hands for Edwards, I justed started smiling and breathed a sigh of relief. And the turn out for the caucuses was double the number we expected. One of the Kerry people at the Mt Ayr high school (where 4 of the Ringgold County precincts held their caucuses), congratulated me and was later overheard saying (while shaking his head) "this is Edwards country". Well, duh. ;)

I arrived back at the office to find the entire Council Bluffs staff, several Edwards supporters, and all the out-of-state volunteers waiting for me...with a bottle of champagne. I was the only staffer in ALL of Iowa to win ALL of their counties. And these were counties that the top Field Director at the Iowa headquarters had written off. It was my moment to shine. Everything I've done since high school has been leading up this...all the campaigns I volunteered for, the classes in political management at George Washington University, the classes in strategic management and marketing and volunteer management and stakeholder mapping and targeting at NYU, etc., etc. have all led to this. This was a HUGE MONUMENTAL win. This is one of those races that is going to make it into all of the textbooks. It was nothing short of historical. The two front-runners (Dean and Gephardt) finished a DISTANT 3rd and 4th. And there were all those reporters and poltical pundits talking about how the Dean and Gephardt campaigns had the man power and field operation that was necessary to win, that the Edwards campaign didn't have enough money, enough staff, etc., etc. Well, I guess we showed them.

This was, by far, one of my greatest accomplishments. And it has cemented my interest and desire to work in the field area of campaigns. All of this just goes to show that it doesn't matter how much money a campaign has, how many thousands of volunteers it claims to have bused in, how many ads there are running on tv non-stop, etc., etc. It is all about the effective grassroots campaign. Which is exactly what Edwards had. Dean had the $150 yard signs, the t-shirts and headsets for all of the staff, the ability to pay Precinct Capatains a $1,000 for every 10 hours of work, the ability to pay high school and college kids $10 an hour for lit drops (a.k.a. the ability to buy votes)...but, look where it got him -- "a distant 3rd".

And now I have to get back to the "city life". Strangely, I miss all those crazy Iowans. I had forged such a relationship with so many of them. At the end of the campaign, some of the supporters knew me so well that they were greeting me with a hug and crying as I was saying goodbye to them. I now have so many memories of Iowa...

-the albino cow farm
-b-level, "enter at your own risk" roads
-farm after farm after farm after farm
-waving to the people in the oncoming cars as you pass by each other
-wandering into a small town and having everyone immediately recognize you as "one of 'dose campaign folks"
-the staff on the other campaigns
-the Jefferson-Jackson dinner
-the sign war
-the blimp war with the Kerry campaign
-"floatie-gate"
-kegstands at the Iowa campaign headquaters
-the crazy old ladies in Bedford with their 30 cats
-the double wide in Clarinda with all the plastic figurines (how Elizabeth Edwards walked into that and said "you have a lovely home" and lept a straight face, I will never know)
-Sen. Edwards interrupting his speech to yell at Jack and Emma Claire to "leave the kitty alone"
-"Small Town" by John Mellencamp
-Ashton Kutcher's endorsement of Sen. Edwards
- the press release from Hootie & the Blowfish endorsing Sen. Edwards
-the "Dean Eats Kitten Fetuses" poster
-and, most importantly, The Delta Force (two guys from Washington University in St. Louis that came up to help with GOTC (Get Out the Caucus) weekend)

Now, I will most likely be going on to work for Edwards in either Northern Virginia or South Carolina. However, I also now have several job interviews for higher up field positions with other organizations (after the results were in, tons of random people were calling me wanting to schedule a time to "sit down and talk"). So, we'll see what happens. But, I have a suspicison that I will talking about "my days back in Iowa" for years to come.