two more weeks: how will the error end?
 

!i was going to wait until the final week to make an EV predictions thread. but i'm a glutton for punishment. so feel free to laugh at how wrong i am on nov 7th (which i probably wont be wrong, but you know

***final prediction: 290 O 150 R*** with either one of CO or VA going to bams, but not both.

post your map from www.270towin.com if you can. i would but im posting from my phone or something

it's a godaddy reserved domain

oops i meant www.270towin.com

not sure, I am getting worried about a lot of the swing states though. Although Obama is ahead in all the Ohio polls, the numbers are within the margin of error. It's possible Romney could win everything

possible but improbable

I guess my prediction right now is 271 Obama to 267 Romney. I gave Obama Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and PA, but I gave Romney both CO and VA, as well as FL and NH.

265 Obama to 273 Rmoney on a bad day.
322 Obama to 216 Rmoney on a good day.

yeah I know it is really unlikely, I'm just getting jittery.

One doomsday scenario is that Obama gets Ohio but loses everything else

This seems to be the lean at the moment.

i think new hampshire is pretty safe obama. its about 70% obama on 538 and i think kerry won NH. so it'd be kind of silly if obama couldn't carry it as well

ohio is a sort of electoral microcosm of the US as a whole. so if he wins that there's no question, its over

i think the 'romney debate surge' was a good stress test to see where ohio would go. alot of the swings like VA, NC, CO and FL went red while OH stayed remarkably blue. plus you factor in pre-debate early voting there where about 60% of early voters voted obama. its going to be a tough nut to crack for romney... though i am very wary of that much pressure being put on one state and its a scenario i was hoping to avoid. hopefully VA and/or CO will go back toward obama and let the steam out a little

It would be comforting if Obama got a bit of a surge from his debate performance, but Romney is back up in a bunch of the polls today

also Obama losing the popular vote would be really, really disheartening even if he wins

polling is going to be very volatile. like i said in the other thread its really only helpful to look at the aggregate at this point, which has obama at 60-80%. i think worst case scenario it'll plummet to 55% but i'm sure all kinds of whacked shit will happen in the next two weeks so theres plenty to be worried about

the chances of obama winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote is still relatively low, around 25% or something. i expect it to shoot up a little though

romney by 3 points

281 Obama, 257 Romney.

obama 99 - romney 88

the other 351 EVs will go to ron paul. notice how the media isn't talking about it

durant scores 38 points

Romney wins

America loses

Colbert wins, At least tonight specifically his show is full of win.

parker will score 28 with 11 assists

I'm pretty much expecting a landslide popular vote for Romney but then somehow they give it to Obama because he's got so much power, not unlike a dictator or Hitler. I read some books, I know what's up.

My prediction....

Romney wins Virginia, Colorado and Florida. Obama loses the popular and electoral vote.

Dems gain in both houses of congress, but GOP remains in control in the House.

also, the Gallup and Rassmusen polls are a fucking mess. why do news organizations continue to quote those polls? Even Fox news dropped one of them from their index.

its looking like he'll get at least one of colorado or virginia. i would be fairly certain of VA if the northern probama portion wasnt getting nuked this week.

one week out, i'm still standing by my prediction. but obamas chances have risen slightly on 538 and princeton has him at about 300 EVs now.

the meltdowns will be spectacular. i'm seriously thinking about taking nov 7th off just to watch fox and friends

If O pulls it out repubs in the house are going to display a level of crazy we have never before seen.

O never pulls it out.