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-   -   Thread for Statistical Analysis of fuzzy's Sports Betting Strategy (http://forums.netphoria.org/showthread.php?t=185375)

Bread Regal 08-11-2017 03:43 PM

Thread for Statistical Analysis of fuzzy's Sports Betting Strategy
 
fuzzy, i'd like to test your claims of making a profit on your sports betting. you were right about the jaguars/patriots game so i'm curious to see if you do actually come out in the black. If the results are satisfactory I might start mirroring your betting strategy.

for this to be a good analysis, i need you to, before tipoff/puck drop/kickoff/whatever, provide the following information:

describe the sporting event:
the outcome your betting on:
odds:
wager amount:
the bookie you're using:
any commentary you'd like to offer:

I promise not to insult or razz you for individual bad wagers. I recognize that you might be wrong about a majority of your wagers, and you might hedge long odds with short odds while still turning a profit.

If you're down, just start posting and I'll put it it my spreadsheet and update this original post.

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 05:23 PM

Hey man, I appreciate the thread. I like the idea, but it's a little too personal for my liking. Sharing the exact wagers and all the parlays and the amount of money spent, I just don't feel comfortable doing that on a daily basis. And frankly I reckon it's something that few people would care to see, so the daily effort wouldn't really be worth it. Cause I do hedge and updating it here all of the time, ehhhh too much work.

Basically, the only guys who take the time to do this are guys who are planning on eventually selling their picks. It's an avenue that I've considered, and if I do eventually go that route I'd love for your help and I'd even kick ya back a little bit if you could help me with the online side of things.


Really, the only picks I throw around here are the ones I feel meet all my guidelines for making the wager a "go". Sometimes they don't work out and the bets I make that don't meet all the guidelines are the money makers, so you never know. But there's no doubt at all that if you were to wager on every tip that I posted that you'd be profitable.

Here Bread, I have a treat for you for tonight that meets all of "Fuzzy's Five Factors"

Bet on New York Giants -4

It's as good as gold

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 05:33 PM

Another bet I like, but to a lesser degree is one in the Canadian Football League.

Take Montreal -8.5

Now I say 'to a lesser degree' because the CFL can be a little more volatile than it's American counterpart. Even so, everything about this line and it's movement suggests that Montreal should win comfortably.

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 05:46 PM

Here's another good bet, this time in MLB.

Take the Kansas City Royals for the win at -125.

Tread lightly on this one, as there's been quite a bit of "reverse line movement". That for me is usually a red flag to go running for the hills but in this case I think KC ekes one out.

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 05:48 PM

Always remember, baseballs the most volatile of them all, so If I were to post a baseball pick, don't bet nearly as much as you would on one of my NFL or NBA picks.

Bread Regal 08-11-2017 06:02 PM

what if you were to hedge by betting on an entire series in mlb.

Bread Regal 08-11-2017 06:05 PM

nevermind you're referring you the spread

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 06:06 PM

Ehhh... I wouldn't bother betting on series'.

The -4 is in reference to the point spread, meaning The Giants have to win by more than 4 to win the money, and if they win by 4 exactly it's called a "push" which means you get 90% of your money back. You still have to pay the vigorish or the juice as they call it.

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 06:07 PM

If you want a good sports book I'd highly recommend Pinnacle. Best odds, been around forever, timely payouts.

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 06:16 PM

The only time I'd bother betting on a series is if it's the playoffs.

In baseball during the regular season there's simply no point. It's a 162 game season, there's a lot of stretches where good teams just go through the motions, especially when they're on the road. Really, my biggest strategy is to base my analysis on what the Las Vegas line is inviting the bettors to do. When you do this every day for years you start to have a good idea of what a line or odds are gonna be before they're even released, and if you see a team that is overvalued, that's a good indicator to bet on the team.

Of course, good teams are overvalued all of the time, and that's not what I'm talking about here. An example would be the wager I won last night. The Patriots were only a 3 point favorite against Jacksonville and every gambling degenerate was betting on the Patriots simply because of the name. And again, today, I see no logical reason why New York Giants should be a 4 point favorite against Pittsburgh in a pre-season game. That shows me Vegas has total confidence in them winning.

This strategy of mine only works if you have a vast feel for the lines though.

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 06:21 PM

One more thing to end the rants, here's a piece of very valuable advice that the typical sports handicapper doesn't realize:

If you bet on games ONLY based on who you think is the better team then you're gonna lose your shirt

Ol' Couch Ass 08-11-2017 06:29 PM

Betting on preseason football seems like a move for a degenerate.

Bread Regal 08-11-2017 06:35 PM

you ever fuck with soccer?

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 08:07 PM

Only MLS... Which I've actually been pretty good at despite having no knowledge in the sport at all.

I'm telling you guys. I'm sharing with you the holy grail of sports handicapping... Most Pro's that know this shit tell those in the know not to tell others.... After all, our whole income is based on squares and dumb-asses betting huge amounts on the "sure thing". With the internet, if everyone was enlightened, there would be less of the pie for 'us' to enjoy.

Bread Regal 08-11-2017 08:16 PM

what is the overarching wisdom that ties all these picks to each other?

Bread Regal 08-11-2017 08:21 PM

i guess your five factors are proprietary

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 08:23 PM

Bread:
what is the overarching wisdom that ties all these picks to each other?

that you bet strictly what Vegas is inviting you NOT to bet. It's not always easy to distinguish. But the Las Vegas line is always the main thing that I look at... You have to try and determine what the line is inviting... And often times 10 games of the day won't stick out, but there will always be the one or 2 that catch the eye for this evaluation system.

I won't lie, I had a bunch of years where I lost my shirt... But then a kind pro took me under his wing and mentored me, and from then it's been like a 3 year journey of seeing the light and having to learn shit on my own, and now the past couple years for the first time in my life I'm making a steady profit... It's not enough to get rich from.... yet, but it's always steady, and I'm always getting better. I'm finally at a point where I can walk the walk and back it up with profitable results...

yo soy el mejor 08-11-2017 08:25 PM

i have a friend whose mother died and left him a home and some money. i'm not sure how much but he's never had a job as long as i've known him. he gave me a goldie hawn biography that used to belong to her and made a pretty decent income playing online poker.

now he's moved to mexico and is living his dream being surrounded by cute mexican girls. he's white. one time i drove over to his home to hang out and i went around back to knock on his back door and saw him masturbating through his sliding glass door and i got out of there real quick and drove home and never mentioned it to him. i didn't see his penis or anything, but i knew what he was doing.

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 08:31 PM

Yeah exactly, if you study the craft long enough, you really can live the dream. It's not easy and it definitely requires a particular mindset... But all you have to do is learn the tricks of trade, know the odds inside and out and have steady money management and then the sky is the limit.

Sports handicapping is my career ambition. Even my biggest critics in life are now beginning to see the light and some are now apologizing and since then a few have even been bugging me for picks.

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 09:41 PM

Fuck dude... Poor showing with the Giants... After all, it is fucking pre-season. Who the hell knows what's gonna happen.

Key to betting is that you have to realize you're never gonna roll with a 100 percent percentage.

Bread Regal 08-11-2017 09:49 PM

alouettes are crushing it tho

fuzzyroes 08-11-2017 10:53 PM

Yeah buddy. I wish I took that harder. I bet on the Minnesota Twins though yet didn't post it.

All and all I took a tiny bit of a hit. Only down about 20 bucks on the day though... It happens from time to time.

I knew I shouldn't have posted that KC play... The reverse line movement should have told me all I needed to know... Even when I start to get all cocky every now and again I'll make a wager that I should know better than to. I'm still working on that.

hnibos 08-12-2017 10:25 AM

That's a shame this thread didn't become what it could be. Maybe I would have turned into a gambler if the results were positive.

reprise85 08-12-2017 04:35 PM

yeah, you should at least privately send the stuff to bon-sor. are you sure you aren't willing to do it because you are worried you aren't making money? do you even know for sure?

fuzzyroes 08-12-2017 05:11 PM

Yeah, I know for sure. Some weeks are more impressive than others, and I'm not where I wanna be yet to be a professional, but I know what I'm doing and know that I'm good.

Baseballs a sport that kind of goes in ebbs and flows for me though, so I'm a little more reluctant to post those plays, because it's easy to go a few losses in a row with it, and then it would kind of appear like I'm a hack.

fuzzyroes 08-12-2017 05:12 PM

Bottom line is that NFL is my cash-cow, so I'm stoked for the season.

Got a pre-season pick for today. Hopefully it goes better than my Giants pick last night.

New York Jets +3

fuzzyroes 08-12-2017 05:15 PM

I also like Minnesota Twins at -130

fuzzyroes 08-12-2017 05:19 PM

Ohhh Love this CFL pick

Hamilton +2

fuzzyroes 08-12-2017 05:19 PM

Lastly I'm looking over the MLS card to see if there's any money to be made there for the night.

fuzzyroes 08-12-2017 05:27 PM

FINAL CARD

New York Jets +3

Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2


Minnesota Twins ML ( ML means Money Line which means win the game)

annddd one MLS game to cap off the excitement for the evening

Philadelphia Union ML


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