There's a neat little Electoral College applet at this website that lets you put states blue or red: www.edwardsforprez.com/map.html

Obviously, you can fool around with this a whole bunch and outline a bunch of different scenarios. It's neat. And in the spirit of science (or whatever), I've taken it upon myself to outline some various possible outcomes of the 2004 presidential elections

Safe states, Dems: CA, NY, IL, VT, MA, CT, RI, MD, DC, HI (150 electoral votes)
Safe states, Reps: TX, ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KA, OK, IN, MS, AL, GA, SC, AK (122 electoral votes)

Those are pretty much not up for debate.

Democratic leaners: NJ, DE (13 electoral votes)
Republican leaners: MT, CO, LA, KY, TN, VA (53 electoral votes)

These are a bit more tenuous. Dems probably have NJ and DE, and Reps probably have the first two states on their list--but there's a slight chance that one or two of those Southern GOP leaners could do Democratic, thanks to Edwards. Virginia, in particular, is showing tighter races post-Edwards than anybody expected, and let's not forget that Clinton managed to carry Louisiana not even 10 years ago. Still, those chances are small as things stand now, so we'll make them red.

With safe states and leaners, the total is Bush 175, Kerry 168.

Now we've got swing states. Some of them are just too close to call, or keep going back and forth in the polls. Some of them are a bit more wide-open at this point, including --

Kerry: OR, NM, MI, PA, ME, WI, IA (71 electoral votes)
Bush: NC, MO, NV, AR, OH (57 electoral votes)

All of these states could still lean the other way, but Kerry or Bush enjoys a lead outside the margin of error in at least one or two polls in all of them.

So the total, divvying up those 102 electoral votes in the way that, right now, it appears they would fall: Kerry 239, Bush 232.

That leaves Washington (dead-even in latest poll), Arizona (Kerry up by 1), Minnesota (Kerry up by 1), West Virginia (which has shown both Bush and Kerry up in recent months; latest poll has Kerry by 3), New Hampshire (dead-even), Florida (three polls released the same day: Bush up 2, Kerry up 2, dead even).

So theoretically, Kerry doesn't need Ohio OR Florida to win the election if he wins the states where he's dead-even or up.

Of course, things could dramatically change before the election, and all the swing states are still in play. But I just wanted to lay out the way things are now, and let you play along with that applet to have some fun.

Also, I should point out that incumbent/re-election races are usually never that close, which makes fooling around with all of this stuff fascinating. If Kerry manages to take just a few Southern states and Florida, for example, it'll be a rout.

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

Safe states, Reps: TX, ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KA, OK, IN, MS, AL, GA, SC, AK (122 electoral votes)

Those are pretty much not up for debate.


I disagree. NE is definitely going to be much closer than ever before. (Because of our internal poll, the Kerry campaign is all over this state now.) And I wouldn't count OK and SC as definite Repub states. They are both definitely leaning towards Bush, but neither are strong enough this year to be sure things just yet.

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants

Kerry: OR, NM, MI, PA, ME, WI, IA (71 electoral votes)


I will predict right here and now that IA will go for Kerry.

And don't forget that ME and NE can split their electoral votes. Granted, that pretty much never happens. However, there is a HUGE grassroots movement in NE to get the electoral college reps to do just that.

Originally posted by BlueStar
I disagree. NE is definitely going to be much closer than ever before. (Because of our internal poll, the Kerry campaign is all over this state now.) And I wouldn't count OK and SC as definite Repub states. They are both definitely leaning towards Bush, but neither are strong enough this year to be sure things just yet.

Can you link me to some polls? Not because I don't believe you but just because I'd love to see such good news myself. And you have more access to polls than me; based on everything I've seen, these are 10+ point states for GWB.

But yeah, I think IA will go for Kerry. I'm not really worried about that; I'm worried about Bush's 5-point lead in Ohio (though I think that'll come down before the election, we can't be sure) and the dead heat/Jeb in Florida. If we can win one of those two, we'll win the election. If we win both, it's a thrashing.

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants


Can you link me to some polls? Not because I don't believe you but just because I'd love to see such good news myself. And you have more access to polls than me; based on everything I've seen, these are 10+ point states for GWB.


There are no polls to link you to...they are all inside polls. Our poll caused the Kerry campaign to freak out. And, according my to former Edwards co-workers now on campaigns in OK and SC, the same thing happened with their inside polls. NE, OK, and SC all show Bush ahead, but it is not by as near as many points and you would think it should be. That may or may not mean anything. But, it is interesting to note. And it shows that Kerry could maybe make some in-roads in those states.

Awwww hells yeah.

No, seriously, if nothing else, it's good if it forces Rove/the Rovian Minions to spend some time and cash in GOP safe states. And for what it's worth, I saw a public poll the other day that had SC at a 5-point margin, backing up the internals you're talking about. If that's true, or even if the Bushies begin to think it's true ... damn.

On the flip side, California is giving me fits. It's still only 11 points for K, which is a lot, but if something were to happen that could swing more voters ...

Nah.

....and the Supreme Court says, "W, winner AGAIN for no credible, legal reason! Hoorah!"

Originally posted by sawdust restaurants


That leaves Washington (dead-even in latest poll),

It will go to the Dems. Not even a question.

Also due to population growth, the states that Bush won in 2000 actually have even more electoral votes today than they did then, and the States that Gore won show a net loss.