someone refute it please. i am telling my friend that this is an internet rumour. at least the specific dates and all but so far i can't find a good source. only random people on messageboards

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I've looked at a lot of this stuff. So far, I haven't seen a convincing argument to the contrary.

Party's over soon, kids - make one more trip to the keg and savor it.

/bad metaphor

i thought it was kinda common knowledge.... least, i've never heard otherwise.

Originally posted by Ammy
i thought it was kinda common knowledge.... least, i've never heard otherwise. yeah i've got a friend who is totally into learning about it. she's a smart girl, and she says it's all true.
adam- you were the one talking earlier about how overpopullation is depleting our resources- i figured this was one of the things you were talking about.

It's a relatively well-known issue that oil won't last us forever; everyone acknowledges it, but few realize how important an issue it is. We just have to hope the world wakes up before it's too late.

whoever wrote this is just throwing a lot of propaganda and scare tactics at you. for instance the whole thing about russia and holding the oil and them building up their nukes. amoco has been dealing with russia since the 90s and BP just launched an operation in Russia not too long ago. I think BP is getting a little over one million barrels of oil a day out of that right now. i don't think it will ever get past the point of no return where we just fucked ourselves and have no plan B.

but then again, it wouldn't be so bad if technology took a step back and people just focused on the environment and surviving. who knows. it is nothing to bother yourself with now.

I read an article in Wired that said fuel cells should be good to go in a decade. ?

The problem with alternative energy: the way we have things set up right now, we use huge amounts of oil to do everything required to create alternative energy production machines and distribution infrastructure.

To make one wind turbine:

Oil is required to fuel the machines that mine the ores used to make the metal in the wind turbine.

Oil is required to fuel the ships, trains, trucks, that bring the raw materials together to turn ore into metal.

Oil and coal are required to generate the electricity that runs the steel mills and smelting operations that make the ore into metal that will eventually build the wind turbine.

Oil is used to create the plastics that go into the turbine.

Oil fuels the machinery used to extract that oil out of the ground.

Oil is required to fuel the ships, trains, trucks that bring the raw oil to the refineries and plants that turn oil into plastic.

Oil is used to fuel the ships, trains, and trucks that bring the raw plastic and metal to the factory that builds the wind turbine.

Oil and coal are used to generate the electricity that runs the wind turbine factory.

Oil fuels the vehicles that brings the wind turbine factory workers to the factory.

Oil and coal generate the electricity and either directly or indirectly made possible the existence of the complex web of industry, and society that support the lives of each of those workers, ESPECIALLY the food that they eat to survive. Completely dependent on oil.

Oil fuels the vehicles that bring the completed wind turbine to the point of installation.

Oil was used to transport and assemble all of the raw materials into the machines that transported and assembled all of the raw materials that went into the wind turbine. Oil was used to transport and assemble all of the machines that extracted the oil that went into the machines in the first part of the previous sentence.

And so on...

In other words, when oil runs out, which apparently will happen sooner rather than later, there's simply no replacement for it. It is THE foundation for any and every modern activity you can name...including the internet we're using to communicate right now.

For a clearer explanation than I can give try http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/PageThree.html

Haha, this thread made me smile.

Adam, let's put it this way: the largest oil field ever discovered has not even been tapped 3 percent yet. The U.S. oil field has dwindled, but in Texas it has come back and again produces the majority of the American oil in use. Russia/Azerbaijan/Estonia are so oil-rich they don't know what to do with it. Azerbaijan's oil field, 20 miles off the coast in the Caspian, will last 45 more years if every other oil field in the world suddently "went dry" and it was the only source of oil. Fortunately, that's not the case. Saudi Arabia's oil field is actually not as big as they have led the world to believe and that will give OPEC some problems and raise your gas prices a bit, but for the next 150 years or so, don't worry about oil too much.

Oh, and how do I know this? Daddy is the Chief Executive Engineer (in charge of exploration and shipping) of oil from outside the United States.

Originally posted by sppunk
Haha, this thread made me smile.

Adam, let's put it this way: the largest oil field ever discovered has not even been tapped 3 percent yet. The U.S. oil field has dwindled, but in Texas it has come back and again produces the majority of the American oil in use. Russia/Azerbaijan/Estonia are so oil-rich they don't know what to do with it. Azerbaijan's oil field, 20 miles off the coast in the Caspian, will last 45 more years if every other oil field in the world suddently "went dry" and it was the only source of oil. Fortunately, that's not the case. Saudi Arabia's oil field is actually not as big as they have led the world to believe and that will give OPEC some problems and raise your gas prices a bit, but for the next 150 years or so, don't worry about oil too much.

Oh, and how do I know this? Daddy is the Chief Executive Engineer (in charge of exploration and shipping) of oil from outside the United States.

thanks. this is the kind of stuff i was looking for. i read something not too long ago that we'd be ok on oil for the next century or so. just for my friend... you have any sources on this i can cite for him?

Originally posted by sppunk
Haha, this thread made me smile.

Adam, let's put it this way: the largest oil field ever discovered has not even been tapped 3 percent yet. The U.S. oil field has dwindled, but in Texas it has come back and again produces the majority of the American oil in use. Russia/Azerbaijan/Estonia are so oil-rich they don't know what to do with it. Azerbaijan's oil field, 20 miles off the coast in the Caspian, will last 45 more years if every other oil field in the world suddently "went dry" and it was the only source of oil. Fortunately, that's not the case. Saudi Arabia's oil field is actually not as big as they have led the world to believe and that will give OPEC some problems and raise your gas prices a bit, but for the next 150 years or so, don't worry about oil too much.

Oh, and how do I know this? Daddy is the Chief Executive Engineer (in charge of exploration and shipping) of oil from outside the United States.

but dude!


That article is most likely citing the U.S. government agency such as the United States Geological Survey or the Energy Information Agency (EIA). While USGS and EIA reports on past production are largely reliable, their predictions for the future are largely propaganda.

They admit this themselves. For instance, after recently revising oil supply projections upward, the EIA stated:


These adjustments to the estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels.

Originally posted by ******


thanks. this is the kind of stuff i was looking for. i read something not too long ago that we'd be ok on oil for the next century or so. just for my friend... you have any sources on this i can cite for him?

My father, Don. Feel free to call him anytime, he'd love to talk to you about it. :) But, really, I'm sure it's online, but I don't know where at or anything. It's just factual knowledge within Exxon, Weatherford Internation (which sort of runs Exxon - that's the company my father works for) and Amaco/BP.

Originally posted by sppunk

My father, Don. Feel free to call him anytime, he'd love to talk to you about it. :) But, really, I'm sure it's online, but I don't know where at or anything. It's just factual knowledge within Exxon, Weatherford Internation (which sort of runs Exxon - that's the company my father works for) and Amaco/BP.

these companies have nothing to gain by misleading people into thinking they have no need to change their usage-heavy oil habits.

information from a less biased source would be helpful.

This really isn't to hard to get some basic information.

I went over to the OPEC site.

"Oil is a limited resource, so it may eventually run out, although not for many years to come. OPEC's oil reserves are sufficient to last another 80 years at the current rate of production, while non-OPEC oil producers' reserves might last less than 20 years. The worldwide demand for oil is rising and OPEC is expected to be an increasingly important source of that oil.

If we manage our resources well, use the oil efficiently and develop new fields, then our oil reserves should last for many more generations to come."

http://www.opec.org/ (poke around in the FAQs)

of course OPEC has a bias, so I did some more researching.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/ - claims production will peak in 2010

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/SciTech/DyeHard/oil_energy_dyehard_040211-1.html - will run out by the end of the century, matching OPECs claims

http://www.ocnus.net/cgi-bin/exec/view.cgi?archive=39&num=9966

I'll keep poking around.

PBS Frontline had a special about the Colombian Pipeline War.
It gives great statistics about oil.
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/oila.html

If all else fails, we can make oil from Palestinean babies.

Originally posted by Sehki
This really isn't to hard to get some basic information.

I went over to the OPEC site.

"Oil is a limited resource, so it may eventually run out, although not for many years to come. OPEC's oil reserves are sufficient to last another 80 years at the current rate of production, while non-OPEC oil producers' reserves might last less than 20 years. The worldwide demand for oil is rising and OPEC is expected to be an increasingly important source of that oil.

If we manage our resources well, use the oil efficiently and develop new fields, then our oil reserves should last for many more generations to come."

http://www.opec.org/ (poke around in the FAQs)

take their 2001 figure of 1,074,850 million barrels of "proven" crude oil in the world.

their 2000-2010 worldwide barrel per day demand estimate is 76 million.

take 76 times 365 times 10. subtract that from 1,074,850.

that leaves 797,450 million barrels in the world in 2010.

threir 2010-2020 worldwide barrel per day demand estimate is 90.6 million.

take 90.6 times 365 times 10. subtract that from 797,450.

that leaves 466,760 million barrels in the world in 2020.

by 2020 they estimate 103.2 milion barrel per day demand.

divide 466,760 by 103.2, divide that by 365.

12.4 years.

seems we'd be out of known oil at this rate by 2033 or 2034... i kept 2001 in my calculations when their original estimate was end of 2001.

Originally posted by Irrelevant
their 2000-2010 worldwide barrel per day demand estimate is 76 million.

their 2010-2020 worldwide barrel per day demand estimate is 90.6 million.


I read in their FAQ that they have the demand per day declining very slightly over time, not growing?

Originally posted by Sehki


I read in their FAQ that they have the demand per day declining very slightly over time, not growing?

from their FAQ:

According to the reference case of OPEC's World Energy Model (OWEM), total world oil demand in 2000 is put at 76 million barrels per day, As world economic growth continues, crude oil demand will also rise to 90.6m b/d in 2010 and 103.2m b/d by 2020, according to the OWEM reference case figures.

also, that PBS report spa ced linked estimates a demand of 118.9 million barrels per day in 2020, which makes things look even worse.

i should point out i was ignoring the growth over the decade too, so i was overestimating how long the oil would last by quite a bit.

i know statistic words!

Originally posted by Irrelevant
i should point out i was ignoring the growth over the decade too, so i was overestimating how long the oil would last by quite a bit.

now I'm confused.

(stop editing! :D)

Originally posted by Sehki


now I'm confused.

(stop editing! :D)

i was saying that when they say it'll be 90.6 mbpd in 2010, i was using 90.6 mbpd as a constant figure from 2011-2020, when they estimate it would be up to 103.2 mbpd. in actuality the demand would be growing throughout the decade so my total usage estimate for the decade was low.

so my final estimate for how long the oil would last according to their figures was longer than actuality.

OPEC doesn't control the oil under the ground really. They have backstocks for 80 years, but that's oil that is already pumped and ready for production. Right now, Exxon is installing one of the largest off-shore oil wells north of Aberdeen, Scotland, that can float the U.S. in oil for 30 years ... in one year of drilling. I remember when we lived in Aberdeen those people acted like they'd just won the World Fair ... because they basically did.

And, as technology continues to improve to reach the oil, technology also improves to not use as much and use other forms of energy.

Originally posted by Irrelevant


i was saying that when they say it'll be 90.6 mbpd in 2010, i was using 90.6 mbpd as a constant figure from 2011-2020, when they estimate it would be up to 103.2 mbpd. in actuality the demand would be growing throughout the decade so my total usage estimate for the decade was low.

so my final estimate for how long the oil would last according to their figures was longer than actuality.

But this all assumes that production stopped in 2001, which it didn't.

Originally posted by Sehki

But this all assumes that production stopped in 2001, which it didn't.

yeah, you're right. but i don't have figures on how much oil is in the ground.

Originally posted by Irrelevant




seems we'd be out of known oil at this rate by 2033 or 2034... i kept 2001 in my calculations when their original estimate was end of 2001.

I calculated 37 years left worth of oil using the information from the link I posted.
However, that doesn't take into account that the world's population is starting to double at a much faster rate than in the past.

Originally posted by Irrelevant


yeah, you're right. but i don't have figures on how much oil is in the ground.

Neither do I. So we have roughly a couple decades, give or take, with just what they have, and thats assuming we stopped drilling 3 years ago - which we didn't. I think it's safe to say oil will hold out for a little while longer.

Originally posted by Irrelevant
i should point out i was ignoring the growth over the decade too, so i was overestimating how long the oil would last by quite a bit.you'd also have to factor in the nations push for electric-driven cars and such, and the more common they'd become over the years.

Within 25 years, our main source of energy will be rapidly switching over to hydrogen, which just happens to be the most abundant element in the known universe.

Shortly after, oil will simply be used for operating our legacy vehicles that haven't been retrofitted and some minor older equipment such as construction vehicles.

<img src="http://www.kingmanchamber.org/assets/images/home/photo-composite/vette.jpg">

http://www.biodiesel.org/
http://home.earthlink.net/~dieseltdi/id1.html

Originally posted by sppunk
My father, Don. . sounds like a reliable source. mind if i quote him in my next paper? i'll site it:
some guy from the internet's dad.

Originally posted by dusty
sounds like a reliable source. mind if i quote him in my next paper? i'll site it:
some guy from the internet's dad.

:rofl:

Did you see the reliable source Adam posted? Go to his links page and tell me he has no agenda.