i heard an economist mention that when an economy starts to fall, it's like a roller coaster effect in that the first couple cars will descend while the rest of the train is still on the way up...it can be decieving if you're not looking ahead.

so...another theory I think is fairly accurate is that the American Economy (and most big centralized manufacturing business models) are predicated on cheap gas. The most pessimistic view is to say America is a house of cards economically and its about to fall...

Noah's Race: a race of all things to grab diminishing energy resources while the demand for that energy keeps getting greater. its a jittery race and any big conglomerate company that relies on cheap energy for distribution (Wal-mart, McDonalds, etc) is going to fall the hardest the quickest. They simply won't be able to make a profit in the current fashion they move things around.

then there's all those religions with their various prophecies about how close we are to a World economic collapse...but I'll leave that for the z-boarders. lol.

all this is tied to Peak Point Production for oil. We could be in or very near the moment when the over-supply of oil goes the other way to demand outstripping supply...the technology that could save the day prolly won't get there in time to stave off a worldwide economic depression.


i love being an optimist.

im much more ignorant then is justifiable when it comes to economics but ive been trying hard to catch up, because now really seems to be the time to know your shit. so many interesting factors are converging, namely the rise of asia and peak oil, that its hard to not foresee a significant sea change of one form or another taking place really soon -- and its hard not to see the US being on the losing end.

from what i understand, which is little, the US is the consumer and the rest of the world is the producer. the US underwrites that consumption with borrowed money. countries like china buy up a lot of US treasury bonds to help maintain that status quo -- which is a US that continues to buy their exports. the entire US economy is built around consumption and countries like china and japan have export based economies. in the event of a shortage in resources, like oil, this will hurt the US more than the others. i think. in any case, the US is overconsuming and is dependent on foreign financing, and in conjunction with lousy domestic economic policies, is in a position that is fundamentally unsustainable

someone tell me if this is all correct or not, i really cant speak with any authority on this shit

overall i think the US should be using its weight to strengthen international organizations, economic and political, with a mind to the coming geopolitical landscape. the US cant keep on starting a war every time it needs to shuffle the deck and can start by owning up to its obligations with regards to trade laws and by helping to force other countries, specifically china, to live up to theirs. china doesnt play fair at all and its no wonder US protests fall on deaf ears when the US does the exact same

ya, im no expert, but I think what you state is largely true.

also, Americans don't really save their money, the buying power is mostly on credit and other countries are staying with us for now, because they figure that we are the U.S., we'll figure it out and honor the debt.

hah.


i heard Russian and China were going through some war games manuveurs recently...

but, who can be bothered when American Idol is about to get ramped up again with auditions. lets Rock!!!

yeah theyre doing the war games as we speak and they have a much bigger one coming up soon. its funny because they were initially billed as being "anti-terror" war games, but they now ominously incorporate strategic bombers, amphibious assaults on beachheads, and all other kinds of distinctly non-terror maneuvers. you know that axiom that 'you can always tell what a country is really up to by what it does with its military'? for example, where the US disperses and stations its troops, aircraft carriers, etc being the most accurate reflection of its foreign policy ambitions and concerns at any given time? well its never been more true. irrespective of this, china and russia are becoming better and better friends. quite scary id say

not only do americans not save their money, they really dont seem to learn their lessons. after the oil crisis in 73, other countries, like japan and western european nations, knew clear and well that their relationship with such a volatile foreign resource was detrimental to the stability of their economy and rapidly made a shift away from it in a variety of ways. in america, before that time, pretty much every single car was one of those monstrous, gas-guzzling buicks or chevys, and japan all but single-handily lead the way into to the smaller, more fuel efficient and aerodynamic models we see today. those old behemoths should have been symbols of the pre-oil crisis era, when america was recklessly consuming oil for pennies. but no, it took another oil crisis in 79 to remind them and, as todays hummers are proof of, they still havent really learned. its just isnt good policy to tie yourself so closely to such a resource. point in fact, the entire 73 oil crisis, which all but paralyzed the US, was primarily the result of an OPEC furious with the US's involvement on the side of israel in the yom kippur war. when oil gets harder and harder to find and costs more and more the US is going to have to learn what it shoudlve learned decades ago, while other countries, like the UK or japan, wont be nearly as affected. to be fair, the move to smaller cars in a lot of countries i mentioned isnt only because of the crisis and is partly a product of the environment theyre in -- ie a densely populated, geographically compact japan, and so on.

the worst thing of all, though, is that bush is now trying to pimp this "reduce consumption to reduce dependence" argument, which in itself is correct, but is completely unbearable to be heard from his fucking lips, as his entire foreign policy prior to this new PR scheme is an affirmation of the opposite. pretty ridiculous

after the oil crisis in 73, other countries, like japan and western european nations, knew clear and well that their relationship with such a volatile foreign resource was detrimental to the stability of their economy and rapidly made a shift away from it in a variety of ways. in america...


too much prozac?





i figure this Euro has got it right:

World running out of time... (http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/08/18/MTFH69017_2005-08-18_13-53-52_SCH850008.html)


Bush? he's so bad, those that might happen to agree with him on a position have to start their position from an intellectually lowered level...because that's how bad he is for these times.

or...

there is the view that if you control the Holy Land, you control the spirituality of the human race. and since you made the nexus between the U.S. defending Isreal and OPEC's retaliation to that during Yom Kippur...maybe its worth keeping from the Jihadist who have branched everywhere in this world to defeat western civ.

Gaza is a good start for the Jihadist, I figure...but do Bush and Sharon have a strategy for the land? Prophetic guy like me, the ruckus in Isreal has me curious, extremely curious.

but you're right...the overly consumptive gas guzzling ways of America is repulsive. It wasn't America, but it could apply to it as i had an inside joke in London about England about how, "ya, I can see how an outsider would say 'FUCK THIS IM BLOWING SOMETHING UP!!! I CAN SEE WHY GEORGE WASHINGTON LOOKED AT THE ATLANTIC AND SET SAIL"

this thread was made wayyy back in the dayyy...when gas was $2.30 a gallon or so.